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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator
Alex Reyes
Lightweight · “The Executioner”

Alex Reyes

0-3-0
Submission Grappler Striker Suspect Chin
5'11"Height
73"Reach
OrthodoxStance
40Age
0KO wins
0Sub wins
0%Finish rate
6:39Avg fight

Skill profile

Rated 0–100 · where 138 MMA has read him, his grades and tags set each axis and the stats only nudge inside his band · stats alone where he is silent · the rim is reserved for specialists
Striking — Average, rated 56 of 100 · 138 MMA: striking good · Aug 2024 · stats read 41 → nudged -6 inside the band · claims striking power +2, pressure +1 (+4) Accuracy — Average, rated 53 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Striking D — Weak, rated 12 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Durability — Below avg, rated 26 of 100 · 138 MMA tag chin: suspect · Aug 2024 · stats read 5 → nudged -8 inside the band · claims chin -3 (-6) Wrestling — Below avg, rated 43 of 100 · claims td offense +1 (+2) TD Defense — Average, rated 53 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Grappling — Above avg, rated 73 of 100 · 138 MMA: grappling solid · Aug 2024 · stats read 31 → nudged -6 inside the band · claims sub offense +1 (+2) Control — Average, rated 57 of 100 · claims top control +1 (+4) Striking Accuracy Striking D Durability Wrestling TD Defense Grappling Control
striking good
2 analyst reads graded this phase
  • good UFC 305 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · August 14, 2024 watch ↗
  • decent UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs Shevchenko Full Card Breakdown, Predictions, & Analysis (Noche UFC) · September 13, 2023 watch ↗
grappling solid
2 analyst reads graded this phase
  • solid UFC 305 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · August 14, 2024 watch ↗
  • solid UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs Shevchenko Full Card Breakdown, Predictions, & Analysis (Noche UFC) · September 13, 2023 watch ↗
wrestling not yet read
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read
striking good 2 reads
grappling solid 2 reads
wrestling not yet read
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read

138 MMA anchors Striking, Durability, Grappling · his tags and claims adjust Wrestling, Control · stats alone on Accuracy, Striking D, TD Defense.

Built on 19 minutes of tracked cage time across 3 statted fights — every axis is held down until there is more tape, so read this as a sketch rather than a verdict.

Submission Grappler above avg grappling — rates 73 of 100 · 138 MMA: grappling solid · Aug 2024
Striker average striking — rates 56 of 100 · 138 MMA: striking good · Aug 2024
Suspect Chin 138 MMA · Aug 2024 tags chin: suspect
Career rates — the raw numbers behind the chart
Sig. strikes landed / min4.46
Sig. strikes absorbed / min6.92
Striking accuracy46.6%
Striking defense48.1%
Knockdowns / 15 min0.0
Takedowns / 15 min1.5
Takedown accuracy28.6%
Takedown defense—
Sub attempts / 15 min0.0
Control time23.0%
Record vs .500+ opponents0-1

Insider info

2 analyst reads · 138 MMA · our paraphrase, never his words
vs Tom Nolan clear UFC 305 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · August 14, 2024
strikinggood grapplingsolid

Picks Nolan outright, naming him as the heavy betting favorite. His only hedge is that the price itself is too short to actually wager -- pure price caution, not doubt about who wins.

Long-inactive veteran -- one fight in the 2020s, lost by quick knockout -- whose skill set the analyst can only assume still holds: solid grappling with good takedowns and back-taking, and striking he believes remains good with power. He states outright that durability is bad and that he genuinely doesn't know how much of the old read still applies after such a long layoff.

Strength(assumed, per long-idle read) solid grappling with good takedowns and back-taking
Strength(assumed) forward, powerful striking
Weaknessbad durability
Weaknesslong inactivity makes the whole read unreliable
Weaknesslost most recent fight by quick knockout
chin · suspect
vs Charlie Campbell lean UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs Shevchenko Full Card Breakdown, Predictions, & Analysis (Noche UFC) · September 13, 2023 · 1 read since
strikingdecent grapplingsolid

Explicit named pick for Campbell, reasoned on Reyes' six-year layoff versus Campbell's active, recently-seen form. But the analyst explicitly tells viewers to skip betting this one and uses the root-beer idiom, which per the confidence-bar rule caps conviction; combined with his own admission that Reyes' current level is simply unknown after such a long absence, this is outcome-relevant uncertainty, not just a price comment, so the grade is held at lean rather than clear.

A solid grappler with solid takedowns who likes to take the back, and a pretty decent forward-pressing striker with power -- but this read comes with an explicit asterisk: he is returning from a six-year layoff, so most of his fighting prime was spent away from competition, and the analyst says plainly that his current level is simply unknown.

Strengthsolid takedowns, back-taking grappler
Strengthdecent, forward-pressuring power striking

Striking trend

Sig. strikes/min, last 3 fights · green = win
September 16, 2017 vs Mike Perry — 4.56/min (L) — only 1.3 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Sep '17 September 16, 2023 vs Charlie Campbell — 3.85/min (L) — only 3.6 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Sep '23 August 17, 2024 vs Tom Nolan — 4.6/min (L) Aug '24

Fight history

3 UFC bouts · newest first · opponent records as of fight night
L Tom Nolan 7-1 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · August 17, 2024
69/140Sig. strikes
84/176Absorbed
2/5Takedowns
4:16Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Charlie Campbell 0-0 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 3:38 — Noche UFC: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · September 16, 2023
14/38Sig. strikes
43/72Absorbed
0/2Takedowns
0:01Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Mike Perry 10-1 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 1:19 — UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch · September 16, 2017
6/13Sig. strikes
11/18Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:18Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts

Walk-in records count UFC bouts in this database. For the pre-UFC career, see the record breakdown below or the Tapology button up top.

Record breakdown

UFC bouts in this database
0-3-0UFC record

Wins by method

KO/TKO 0
Submission 0
Decision 0
Other 0

Losses by method

KO/TKO 2
Submission 0
Decision 1
Other 0

Fights by organization

UFC 3

Showing UFC fights only — this fighter's full pre-UFC career hasn't been synced yet. It will fill in as the weekly career backfill reaches them.

Division context

vs. 195 qualified Lightweight fighters · tick = division mean
Striking volume /min 4.5 avg 3.5
Strikes absorbed /min 6.9 avg 3.6
Striking accuracy 46.6% avg 44.0%
Striking defense 48.1% avg 55.7%
Takedowns /15 min 1.5 avg 1.6
Takedown accuracy 28.6% avg 38.1%
Sub attempts /15 min 0.0 avg 0.6
Control time 23.0% avg 21.3%

Headshot of Alex Reyes by UFC · Official UFC athlete photo (copyright UFC; not freely licensed) · Wikimedia Commons · flattened onto dark background, cropped/resized