Alexia Thainara

Lands on Thainara's grappling as the clear route to victory, explicitly weighing and setting aside Lemos's puncher's chance rather than leaving it unanswered.

A high-volume, forward-pressing striker who throws heavy combinations and is expected to be the aggressor. Her clearer path to victory is grappling: a body-lock takedown entry, hard finishes to the mat, good top control and advancement, and heavy top volume including dangerous elbows. Her one real red flag is recklessly diving into guard without respecting the risk of a counter, which the analyst flags as eventually likely to get punished.

big grappling advantage, improved

Less technically polished than her opponent, but she makes up for it with a bullying one-two and a high output that she just keeps pushing forward behind. Her real advantage is grappling: she's especially good landing a bodylock and turning it into a trip, dropping foes to the floor so she can pass straight into guard, and she usually holds strong top position except when she opens up with heavy ground strikes. The analyst says she's a markedly better fighter since the two of them last met, and specifically no longer dives in carelessly chasing an opponent's guard the way she used to -- though he wants to see that hold up over a few more fights before fully trusting it.

He acknowledges possible betting value on the underdog but explicitly says he is trying to pick a winner rather than chase value, backed by a specific size/range mechanism.

A good striker with forward pressure, volume and a heavy 1-2, favored specifically because her size lets her land that combination at the range Lookboonmee would rather kick from. A good grappler too, with a body-lock-and-trip entry, decent top control and good ground-and-pound volume, though she is noted for recklessly diving into guard.