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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator
Antonio Trocoli
Middleweight · “Malvado”

Antonio Trocoli

0-4-0
Positional Grappler Wrestler
6'6"Height
79"Reach
OrthodoxStance
35Age
0KO wins
0Sub wins
0%Finish rate
7:29Avg fight

Skill profile

Rated 0–100 · where 138 MMA has read him, his grades and tags set each axis and the stats only nudge inside his band · stats alone where he is silent · the rim is reserved for specialists
Striking — Below avg, rated 34 of 100 · 138 MMA: striking decent · Mar 2026 · stats read 15 → nudged -8 inside the band · tag ko power: good (+3) · claims striking power +1, striking technique -1 (+0) Accuracy — Average, rated 48 of 100 · claims striking technique -1 (-2) Striking D — Weak, rated 5 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Durability — Weak, rated 15 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Wrestling — Average, rated 54 of 100 · 138 MMA: wrestling good · Dec 2022 · stats read 51 → nudged -2 inside the band · claims td offense -1, clinch +1 (-1) TD Defense — Below avg, rated 41 of 100 · 138 MMA: wrestling good (no takedown-defence tag), half-weighted with the stats read 25 Grappling — Below avg, rated 42 of 100 · 138 MMA: grappling decent · Mar 2026 · stats read 30 → nudged -3 inside the band · claims sub offense +2, ground and pound +2 (+6) Control — Average, rated 59 of 100 · claims top control -1, ground and pound +2 (-1) Striking Accuracy Striking D Durability Wrestling TD Defense Grappling Control
striking decent
4 analyst reads graded this phase
  • decent UFC Fight Night Evloev vs Murphy Full Card Preview & Predictions · March 15, 2026 watch ↗
  • decent UFC 323 · December 2, 2025 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Magny vs Prates Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown (UFC Vegas 100) · November 5, 2024 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Perez vs Taira Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown (UFC Vegas 93) · June 11, 2024 watch ↗
grappling decent
5 analyst reads graded this phase
  • decent UFC Fight Night Evloev vs Murphy Full Card Preview & Predictions · March 15, 2026 watch ↗
  • good UFC 323 · December 2, 2025 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Magny vs Prates Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown (UFC Vegas 100) · November 5, 2024 watch ↗
  • very good UFC Fight Night Perez vs Taira Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown (UFC Vegas 93) · June 11, 2024 watch ↗
  • good UFC 282 Full Card Analysis, Preview, and Prediction · December 6, 2022 watch ↗
wrestling good
1 analyst read graded this phase
  • good UFC 282 Full Card Analysis, Preview, and Prediction · December 6, 2022 watch ↗
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read
striking decent 4 reads
grappling decent 5 reads
wrestling good 1 read
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read

138 MMA anchors Striking, Wrestling, Grappling · his tags and claims adjust Accuracy, TD Defense, Control · stats alone on Striking D, Durability.

Built on 29 minutes of tracked cage time across 4 statted fights — every axis is held down until there is more tape, so read this as a sketch rather than a verdict.

Positional Grappler average control — rates 59 of 100 · claims top control -1, ground and pound +2 (-1)
Wrestler average wrestling — rates 54 of 100 · 138 MMA: wrestling good · Dec 2022
Career rates — the raw numbers behind the chart
Sig. strikes landed / min1.27
Sig. strikes absorbed / min5.4
Striking accuracy45.2%
Striking defense27.0%
Knockdowns / 15 min0.0
Takedowns / 15 min0.5
Takedown accuracy4.8%
Takedown defense33.3%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.0
Control time33.2%
Record vs .500+ opponents0-2

Insider info

5 analyst reads · 138 MMA · our paraphrase, never his words
vs Mantas Kondratavicius clear UFC Fight Night Evloev vs Murphy Full Card Preview & Predictions · March 15, 2026
strikingdecent grapplingdecent wrestlinggood

picks Mantas to win

A lanky middleweight the analyst is surprised to still see on the roster given a 1-3-1 run. He rates Trocoli a better grappler than striker: decent power with long straight punches on the regional scene, and a ground-and-pound-to-submissions grappling game that uses his length. He does not expect Trocoli to get the takedown he needs, or hold it, to win this one.

Strengthlong straight punches
Strengthpretty good power (regional scene)
Strengthdecent takedowns against the cage
Strengthuses his length well
Strengthground and pound into submissions
Weaknessstriking rated decent but explicitly 'not good'
Weaknessdoubts he gets or holds a takedown here
ko power · good
vs Mansur Abdul-Malik clear UFC 323 · December 2, 2025 · 1 read since
strikingdecent grapplinggood wrestlinggood

flat, unhedged pick ('no surprise taking Abdul Malik') backed by a stated physical/wrestling mismatch

As of 2025-12-02, a decent striker with okay power and long straight punches, and a pretty good grappler who uses his length well, lands takedowns against the cage and sets up submissions with ground and pound. The analyst frames his role on this card as the opponent repeatedly fed to prospects, and rates him outmatched here against a bigger, more physical grappler.

Strengthdecent power, long straight punches
Strengthuses length well
Strengthtakedowns against the cage
Strengthground-and-pound into submission setups
vs Tre Sean Gore clear UFC Fight Night Magny vs Prates Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown (UFC Vegas 100) · November 5, 2024 · 2 reads since
strikinggood grapplinggood wrestlinggood

Names Trocoli directly as his pick, saying he 'gotta go with him' because Trocoli controls range on the feet and is the better grappler if it hits the mat; no hedge on the win itself.

A long, rangy striker-grappler (roughly a five-inch height/reach edge here) who uses his length very well on the feet, backing a good power-punching profile. His jiu-jitsu is good, especially working takedowns against the cage into ground-and-pound that sets up submissions; his open-mat takedowns are weaker by comparison. The analyst treats his natural length as a real edge against a shorter, lower-volume opponent.

StrengthReach/length advantage, used well on the feet
StrengthGood power
StrengthCage takedowns into ground-and-pound that sets up submissions
StrengthGood overall jiu-jitsu
WeaknessOpen-mat takedowns (away from the cage) are not as strong
ko power · goodrange · long
vs Ikram Aliskerov clear UFC Fight Night Perez vs Taira Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown (UFC Vegas 93) · June 11, 2024 · 3 reads since
strikinggood grapplingvery good wrestlinggood

He commits plainly to Aliskerov, saying he feels good about the pick and that the lopsided betting line is justified, with a clear mechanism (takedowns and top pressure neutralizing the length-based BJJ). No real hedge on the win itself.

Our words: a good striker with good power and good long straight punches, aided by a significant 82-inch reach that also helps him close distance for takedowns. Good BJJ, typically getting fights to the mat by dropping opponents or via cage takedowns, then using ground-and-pound and his length to set up submissions. Taking this fight on very short notice against a much tougher opponent.

Strengthgood power/long straight punches
Strengthsignificant reach advantage
Strengthgood BJJ (ground-and-pound into submissions, length-based control)
Weaknesssignificant overall skill gap in this specific matchup, per the analyst
vs Ovince St Preux coinflip UFC 282 Full Card Analysis, Preview, and Prediction · December 6, 2022 · 4 reads since
grapplinggood wrestlinggood

Names Saint Preux as the pick twice, but attaches direct, repeated hedges to the win itself, not just price: 'not confident in it whatsoever' and a statement that this is among the least-backed picks on the card.

A good wrestler and grappler who is undersized for light heavyweight -- the analyst thinks he is better suited to middleweight long-term. Taking this on short notice.

Strengthgood wrestling
Strengthgood grappling
Weaknesssmall frame for light heavyweight; probably a middleweight long-term
Weaknessshort notice fight

Striking trend

Sig. strikes/min, last 4 fights · green = win
June 22, 2024 vs Shara Magomedov — 1.29/min (L) Jun '24 November 9, 2024 vs Tresean Gore — 1.45/min (L) — only 1.4 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Nov '24 December 6, 2025 vs Mansur Abdul-Malik — 2.61/min (L) — only 1.1 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Dec '25 March 21, 2026 vs Mantas Kondratavicius — 1.13/min (L) Mar '26

Fight history

4 UFC bouts · newest first · opponent records as of fight night
L Mantas Kondratavicius 0-0 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · March 21, 2026
17/39Sig. strikes
75/107Absorbed
1/12Takedowns
5:03Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Mansur Abdul-Malik 2-0-1 walk-in Submission · R1 1:09 — UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · December 6, 2025
3/6Sig. strikes
2/4Absorbed
0/1Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Tresean Gore 1-2 walk-in Submission · R1 1:23 — UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · November 9, 2024
2/5Sig. strikes
3/3Absorbed
0/1Takedowns
0:13Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Shara Magomedov 12-0 walk-in KO/TKO · R3 2:27 — UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · June 22, 2024
16/34Sig. strikes
82/108Absorbed
0/7Takedowns
4:42Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts

Walk-in records count UFC bouts in this database. For the pre-UFC career, see the record breakdown below or the Tapology button up top.

Record breakdown

UFC bouts in this database
0-4-0UFC record

Wins by method

KO/TKO 0
Submission 0
Decision 0
Other 0

Losses by method

KO/TKO 1
Submission 2
Decision 1
Other 0

Fights by organization

UFC 4

Showing UFC fights only — this fighter's full pre-UFC career hasn't been synced yet. It will fill in as the weekly career backfill reaches them.

Division context

vs. 168 qualified Middleweight fighters · tick = division mean
Striking volume /min 1.3 avg 3.3
Strikes absorbed /min 5.4 avg 3.3
Striking accuracy 45.2% avg 47.0%
Striking defense 27.0% avg 53.4%
Takedowns /15 min 0.5 avg 1.6
Takedown accuracy 4.8% avg 40.4%
Takedown defense 33.3% avg 61.3%
Sub attempts /15 min 0.0 avg 0.7
Control time 33.2% avg 21.6%

Headshot of Antonio Trocoli by UFC · Official UFC athlete photo (copyright UFC; not freely licensed) · Wikimedia Commons · flattened onto dark background, cropped/resized