Bruno Lopes

Takes Lopes as the underdog on a stated grappling-advantage mechanism, while openly calling himself a repeat sucker for this type of pick -- a real but hedged lean.

A good, forward-pressing volume striker who strikes well to every level and in combination. His durability is described as having clearly declined since taking a bad knockout loss on the Contender Series; since then he is said to get visibly wobbled by shots that would not have bothered him before. His grappling is the stronger path tonight: decent (not great) body-lock takedowns, good top pressure and ground-and-pound, and good takedown defense of his own.

razor thin, really unsure

Comes forward with real output and lands at every range with crisp combinations, though he's vulnerable to counters any time he throws a hook. He's plainly the superior grappler of this pair -- solid defense against takedowns, heavy ground-and-pound, strong top pressure, and a bodylock takedown the analyst calls his best route to the win -- but he doesn't lean on that skill set often. The analyst's biggest worry is durability: he says Lopes keeps visibly getting rocked lately and that his chin seems to be going, though he allows he could be wrong about that read.

Direct and repeated: he states twice that he is taking Jacoby, and frames him as the better striker across a full three-round fight, with a named mechanism (counter-striking against Lopes's hook-throwing habit). He concedes Lopes's youth as a factor and says Lopes isn't bad, but never wavers on the winner.

Bruno Lopes has recovered well from the one real setback of his career, a Contender Series bout where he was a big favorite and fell short. He strikes well, mixing forward pressure, real volume, and strikes to different levels into his combinations, though the analyst flags a specific habit of leaving himself open to counters when he throws hooks -- something he says will matter against Jacoby in particular. On the ground he is likely the sharper grappler of the two, with good takedown defense, good ground-and-pound, strong top pressure, and a workable bodylock entry, though the analyst doubts that entry alone gets Jacoby down consistently.

Lays out a clean mechanism (Lopes chasing a harder-to-hit, range-controlling striker and losing the output battle over three rounds) and commits to the decision pick without hedging on who wins.

Good, high-volume striker who presses forward and strikes to all levels, with one technical gap: he opens himself up when throwing hooks. Good takedown defense and ground-and-pound, with a decent body-lock takedown, though he often ends up as the one taken down rather than the one doing the grappling. Described as a good all-arounder who looked best earlier in his career and has seemed a bit off in his more recent fights.