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Chris Duncan
Lightweight · “The Problem”

Chris Duncan

15-3-0 UFC 6-2-0
Relentless Attack Durable
5'10"Height
71"Reach
OrthodoxStance
33Age
0KO wins
3Sub wins
50.0%Finish rate
8:43Avg fight

Skill profile

Rated 0–100 · where 138 MMA has read him, his grades and tags set each axis and the stats only nudge inside his band · stats alone where he is silent · the rim is reserved for specialists
Striking — Above avg, rated 70 of 100 · 138 MMA: striking good · Mar 2026 · stats read 67 → nudged +4 inside the band · tag ko power: good (+3) · claims striking power +2, striking technique +2, kicking +1, hand speed -1, pressure +2 (+6) Accuracy — Average, rated 58 of 100 · claims striking technique +2 (+4) Striking D — Below avg, rated 28 of 100 · 138 MMA whiteboard: striking defence marked as a minus · stats read 29 → nudged -3 inside the band · claims striking defense -2 (-6) Durability — Above avg, rated 77 of 100 · 138 MMA tag chin: durable · Mar 2023 · stats read 70 → nudged -1 inside the band · claims chin +2 (+4) Wrestling — Below avg, rated 44 of 100 · 138 MMA: wrestling decent · Sep 2024 · stats read 76 → nudged +5 inside the band · claims td offense +1, clinch +2 (+4) TD Defense — Below avg, rated 37 of 100 · 138 MMA: wrestling decent (no takedown-defence tag), half-weighted with the stats read 36 Grappling — Average, rated 60 of 100 · 138 MMA: grappling good · Mar 2026 · stats read 61 → nudged +1 inside the band · tag sub threat: good (+3) · claims sub defense -1 (-1) Control — Average, rated 66 of 100 · claims top control +2 (+8) Striking Accuracy Striking D Durability Wrestling TD Defense Grappling Control
striking good
6 analyst reads graded this phase
  • good UFC Fight Night Moicano vs Duncan · March 29, 2026 watch ↗
  • decent UFC 323 · December 2, 2025 watch ↗
  • decent UFC Fight Night Edwards vs Brady Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · March 16, 2025 watch ↗
  • decent UFC Fight Night Moicano vs Saint-Denis Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown (UFC Paris) · September 25, 2024 watch ↗
  • decent UFC Fight Night Moreno vs Royval 2 Full Card Analysis, Breakdown, & Prediction (UFC Mexico) · February 19, 2024 watch ↗
  • decent UFC Fight Night Aspinall vs Tybura Full Card Breakdown, Analysis, and Predictions (UFC London) · July 18, 2023 watch ↗
grappling good
3 analyst reads graded this phase
  • good UFC Fight Night Moicano vs Duncan · March 29, 2026 watch ↗
  • good UFC 323 · December 2, 2025 watch ↗
  • decent UFC Fight Night Edwards vs Brady Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · March 16, 2025 watch ↗
wrestling decent
2 analyst reads graded this phase
  • decent UFC Fight Night Moicano vs Saint-Denis Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown (UFC Paris) · September 25, 2024 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Aspinall vs Tybura Full Card Breakdown, Analysis, and Predictions (UFC London) · July 18, 2023 watch ↗
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read
striking good 6 reads
grappling good 3 reads
wrestling decent 2 reads
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read

138 MMA anchors Striking, Striking D, Durability, Wrestling, Grappling · his tags and claims adjust Accuracy, TD Defense, Control.

Built on 69 minutes of tracked cage time across 8 statted fights — every axis is held down until there is more tape, so read this as a sketch rather than a verdict.

Relentless Attack 83 offensive actions per 15 min — strikes, takedown and submission attempts together
Durable above avg durability — rates 77 of 100 · 138 MMA tag chin: durable · Mar 2023
Career rates — the raw numbers behind the chart
Sig. strikes landed / min4.6
Sig. strikes absorbed / min4.23
Striking accuracy46.2%
Striking defense52.3%
Knockdowns / 15 min0.43
Takedowns / 15 min2.8
Takedown accuracy40.6%
Takedown defense55.6%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.65
Control time21.8%
Record vs .500+ opponents4-2

Insider info

7 analyst reads · 138 MMA · our paraphrase, never his words
vs Renato Moicano emphatic UFC Fight Night Moicano vs Duncan · March 29, 2026
strikinggood grapplinggood wrestlingdecent

favored everywhere except power

Described as surging and on the way up on a 15-2, 4-1-in-his-last-five run. A good striker who the analyst says is very good in a brawl specifically, with a lot of power and a pretty good leg kick, though his striking defense is bad -- tolerable, in the analyst's view, only because his gameplan should be to brawl anyway. His grappling is good: a good cage push and control there, decent takedowns, and an opportunistic guillotine that has been his signature way of finishing people, though the analyst is skeptical it lands against this particular opponent.

Strengthvery good in a brawl, a lot of power
Strengthpretty good leg kick
Strengthgood cage push and control
Strengthopportunistic, finish-capable guillotine
Weaknessbad striking defense
Weaknessanalyst doubts his signature guillotine finishes this particular opponent
ko power · good
vs Terrance McKinney coinflip UFC 323 · December 2, 2025 · 1 read since
strikingdecent grapplinggood wrestlingdecent

names Duncan by guillotine as the pick, then immediately concedes a McKinney blowout would not shock him at all, closing with an outright 'I don't know' on this one

As of 2025-12-02, his hands carry some pop and his leg kick is a weapon, and he's genuinely entertaining in exchanges, but his guard against incoming shots is described as bad, which the analyst says could cost him. His grappling is the stronger side of his game: solid cage pressure and control, workable takedowns, and he has been finishing fights with opportunistic submissions, mostly the guillotine.

Strengthpower
Strengthleg kick
Strengthcage control
Strengthtakedowns
Strengthguillotine / opportunistic submissions
Weaknessstriking defense
sub threat · good
vs Jordan Vucenic lean UFC Fight Night Edwards vs Brady Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · March 16, 2025 · 2 reads since
strikingdecent grapplingdecent wrestlingdecent

He expects Vucenic to win only once his wrestling actually takes over the fight, a conditional path rather than an unqualified call, after calling Duncan's brawling live.

As of 2025-03-16, not his newest read. A decent, low-hands striker who thrives specifically in a brawl, since his guard tends to come apart outside of one; his power is what makes that trade worthwhile. His grappling is a decent complementary tool: cage control and opportunistic submissions.

Strengthleg kick and power that play up in a brawl
Strengthcage control
Strengthopportunistic submissions
Weaknesskeeps hands low
Weaknessguard comes apart outside of a brawl
vs Bolaji Oki lean UFC Fight Night Moicano vs Saint-Denis Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown (UFC Paris) · September 25, 2024 · 3 reads since
strikingdecent wrestlingdecent

He frames it as a close, hard-to-call fight even while taking Oki, and separately flags that the betting line favors Oki heavily enough that money could start moving toward Duncan -- outcome doubt plus a price caution, not just a line comment.

A decent, power-driven striker with a good leg kick who is most comfortable brawling -- praised and worried about in the same breath because his striking defense and low hands leave him open in exchanges. Has grown into a cage-control, grinding wrestling game the analyst calls real development versus his regional-scene reputation.

Strengthgood power
Strengthgood leg kick
Strengthcomfortable brawling
Strengthgood cage-push / control wrestling
Weaknessstriking defense isn't the best
Weaknesshands get low
ko power · good
vs Manuel Torres clear UFC Fight Night Moreno vs Royval 2 Full Card Analysis, Breakdown, & Prediction (UFC Mexico) · February 19, 2024 · 4 reads since
strikingdecent wrestlinggood

repeatedly names Torres as the pick and calls him the more dangerous striker outright, more than once; a conceded alternate path (Duncan grinding a decision via cage control) is acknowledged but the pick is restated, not reversed.

Chris Duncan is good in a brawl with power and leg kicks but decent (not great) striking overall, with poor striking defense and low hands; the analyst highlights that Duncan has added a real wrestling wrinkle to his game -- pushing opponents to the cage and controlling them -- showing a better fight IQ now than during his regional run or first Contender Series appearance. His only loss came by knockout.

Strengthgood in a brawl, power, leg kicks
Strengthcage-control wrestling now mixed into his gameplan
Strengthonly been finished once in his career
Weaknessstriking defense still poor, hands low
vs Yanal Ashmouz coinflip UFC Fight Night Aspinall vs Tybura Full Card Breakdown, Analysis, and Predictions (UFC London) · July 18, 2023 · 5 reads since
strikingdecent wrestlinggood

Admits he has flip-flopped on this one repeatedly, and separately tells viewers not to bet it and that he will just watch -- named winner plus an explicit stay-away caps at coinflip.

Duncan is a decent, powerful brawler who thrives when fights turn messy, and has developed a good wrestling game (cage push, control) since moving training camps to the US. His stated flaws -- poor striking defense and low hands -- mean he gets dropped often, which the analyst treats as the deciding risk.

Strengthpower in a brawl
Strengthdeveloping wrestling/cage control
Weaknesspoor striking defense
Weaknesshands low
Weaknessgets dropped often
vs Omar Morales lean UFC 286 Full Card Breakdown, Analysis, And Prediction · March 14, 2023 · 6 reads since

likes him, but close fight

Duncan is a durable brawler who wants to turn this into a standup fire-fight rather than a technical kickboxing match. He keeps his hands low and his striking defense suffers for it, but he can absorb a large volume of punishment and answer back with heavy shots. The analyst reads him as a clear favorite if the fight becomes a brawl, since Morales's own best path is a cleaner, longer striking game.

Strengthdurable, eats shots and keeps coming
Strengthgreat in a brawl with heavy power
Strengthwants to turn the fight into a brawl
Weaknesshands carried low, striking defense suffers for it
Weaknessslower hands
chin · durable

Striking trend

Sig. strikes/min, last 8 fights · green = win
March 18, 2023 vs Omar Morales — 3.53/min (W) Mar '23 July 22, 2023 vs Yanal Ashmouz — 5.67/min (W) Jul '23 February 24, 2024 vs Manuel Torres — 0.57/min (L) — only 1.8 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Feb '24 September 28, 2024 vs Bolaji Oki — 2.8/min (W) — only 3.6 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Sep '24 March 22, 2025 vs Jordan Vucenic — 1.72/min (W) Mar '25 August 2, 2025 vs Mateusz Rebecki — 6.13/min (W) Aug '25 December 6, 2025 vs Terrance McKinney — 15.2/min (W) — only 2.5 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Dec '25 April 4, 2026 vs Renato Moicano — 3.28/min (L) Apr '26

Fight history

8 UFC bouts · newest first · opponent records as of fight night
L Renato Moicano 20-7-1 walk-in Submission · R2 3:14 — UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · April 4, 2026
27/62Sig. strikes
21/36Absorbed
0/2Takedowns
0:01Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Terrance McKinney 17-7 walk-in Submission · R1 2:30 — UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · December 6, 2025
38/55Sig. strikes
31/57Absorbed
1/2Takedowns
1:10Control
1Knockdowns
1Sub attempts
W Mateusz Rebecki 20-2 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · August 2, 2025
92/222Sig. strikes
114/267Absorbed
0/1Takedowns
0:27Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Jordan Vucenic 0-1 walk-in Submission · R2 3:42 — UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · March 22, 2025
15/40Sig. strikes
16/26Absorbed
4/5Takedowns
5:37Control
1Knockdowns
1Sub attempts
W Bolaji Oki 1-0 walk-in Submission · R1 3:34 — UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · September 28, 2024
10/25Sig. strikes
28/50Absorbed
0/1Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
1Sub attempts
L Manuel Torres 13-2 walk-in Submission · R1 1:46 — UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · February 24, 2024
1/2Sig. strikes
3/5Absorbed
1/3Takedowns
0:40Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Yanal Ashmouz 1-0 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · July 22, 2023
85/206Sig. strikes
35/98Absorbed
2/4Takedowns
0:48Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Omar Morales 11-3 walk-in Decision - Split · R3 5:00 — UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · March 18, 2023
53/83Sig. strikes
47/80Absorbed
5/14Takedowns
6:31Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts

Walk-in records count UFC bouts in this database. For the pre-UFC career, see the record breakdown below or the Tapology button up top.

Record breakdown

Full pro career (Wikipedia, results only)
15-3-0Pro record

Wins by method

KO/TKO 7
Submission 4
Decision 4
Other 0

Losses by method

KO/TKO 1
Submission 2
Decision 0
Other 0

Fights by organization

UFC 8
Bellator 3
Dana White's Contender Series 2
Ultimate Fight League 2
On Top 2
Unity FC 1
Full career — 18 fights, every organization
OpponentMethodEventOrg RdTime
L Renato Moicano Submission (face crank) UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan
April 4, 2026
UFC 2 3:14
W Terrance McKinney Submission (anaconda choke) UFC 323
December 6, 2025
UFC 1 2:30
W Mateusz Rębecki Decision (unanimous) UFC on ESPN: Taira vs. Park
August 2, 2025
UFC 3 5:00
W Jordan Vucenic Submission (guillotine choke) UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady
March 22, 2025
UFC 2 3:42
W Bolaji Oki Technical submission (guillotine choke) UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis
September 28, 2024
UFC 1 3:44
L Manuel Torres Submission (rear-naked choke) UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2
February 24, 2024
UFC 1 1:46
W Yanal Ashmouz Decision (unanimous) UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura
July 22, 2023
UFC 3 5:00
W Omar Morales Decision (split) UFC 286
March 18, 2023
UFC 3 5:00
W Charlie Campbell KO (punches) Dana White's Contender Series 48
August 2, 2022
Dana White's Contender Series 1 1:43
W Jonathan Carlos Decision (unanimous) Ultimate Fight League 8
February 5, 2022
Ultimate Fight League 3 5:00
L Viacheslav Borshchev KO (punch) Dana White's Contender Series 43
October 12, 2021
Dana White's Contender Series 2 0:28
W Iamik Furtado TKO (punches) Bellator 247
October 1, 2020
Bellator 2 3:58
W Mateusz Piskorz TKO (punches) Bellator 240
February 22, 2020
Bellator 2 2:43
W Leandro Souza TKO (punches) Ultimate Fight League 3
August 4, 2019
Ultimate Fight League 1 4:03
W Sam Slater TKO (punches) Bellator 217
February 23, 2019
Bellator 1 3:00
W Niall Smith TKO (punches) On Top 21
November 17, 2018
On Top 1 —
W Steve Moore TKO (punches) On Top: Showdown
June 2, 2018
On Top 3 —
W Pietro Colonna Submission (guillotine choke) Unity FC 1
April 7, 2018
Unity FC 2 4:47

Career history from the fighter's Wikipedia record table (Chris Duncan (fighter)) — results only, no strike stats; UFC bouts are marked and carry full stats in the fight history above.

Division context

vs. 195 qualified Lightweight fighters · tick = division mean
Striking volume /min 4.6 avg 3.5
Strikes absorbed /min 4.2 avg 3.6
Striking accuracy 46.2% avg 44.0%
Striking defense 52.3% avg 55.7%
Takedowns /15 min 2.8 avg 1.6
Takedown accuracy 40.6% avg 38.1%
Takedown defense 55.6% avg 61.1%
Sub attempts /15 min 0.7 avg 0.6
Control time 21.8% avg 21.3%
Finish rate 50.0% avg 50.7%

Headshot of Chris Duncan by UFC · Official UFC athlete photo (copyright UFC; not freely licensed) · Wikimedia Commons · flattened onto dark background, cropped/resized