Dan Argueta

He says Haddon's striking is clearly better and his cardio lets him wear Argueta down over the fight, predicting a late finish or a comfortable cruise; no hedge on the outcome itself.

A good, relentless wrestler with heavy takedown volume and a real rear-naked-choke threat once he gets a back, backed by forward pressure and wrestling-set-up striking. The analyst's own read is that his output has slowed in past fights, which he thinks Haddon's gas tank will punish here.

Commits to Matsumoto on the view he lands the better strikes and that judges no longer reward control time, but explicitly says he is not confident in him because it is a UFC debut, and calls the fight a 'watch and see' proposition -- a direct qualifier on the win itself, not just on method or round.

A more UFC-tenured wrestler built around relentless takedown volume, strong control, and dangerous back-taking into a go-to rear-naked choke. His striking is rated only decent and is described mainly as forward pressure that sets up the wrestling. 138 frames him as live mainly through imposing that wrestling for nearly the entire fight.

Names Lawrence as the pick but calls it a tough matchup to call and says his own confidence is low, telling viewers to bet the over instead of backing Lawrence.

A control-and-pressure wrestler who, once he gets a takedown, focuses on staying on top and landing ground-and-pound rather than scrambling back to volume. Striking is only decent. The analyst credits him with the cleaner, higher-percentage takedowns in this matchup even though Lawrence will attempt more.

He repeatedly self-describes this as "not my most confident fight" and says plainly he would not bet it at today's price, having only taken Dulgarian earlier at a much better number (+220); he still commits to the pick on the stated mechanism (better at taking control early) but the self-rating is explicit.

A pressure grappler built around ground-and-pound and control who pushes a high pace; he made a competitive account of himself even in his lone loss (to Damon Jackson), and is moving up to featherweight for this fight, which the analyst treats as a small, uncertain negative.