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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator
Evan Elder
Lightweight · “The Phenom”

Evan Elder

3-2-0
Forward Pressure Relentless Attack Suspect TD Defense
5'10"Height
72"Reach
SwitchStance
29Age
0KO wins
1Sub wins
33.3%Finish rate
12:28Avg fight

Skill profile

Rated 0–100 · where 138 MMA has read him, his grades and tags set each axis and the stats only nudge inside his band · stats alone where he is silent · the rim is reserved for specialists
Striking — Average, rated 68 of 100 · 138 MMA: striking good · Apr 2025 · stats read 78 → nudged +7 inside the band · claims striking technique +2, kicking +1 (+4) Accuracy — Above avg, rated 82 of 100 · claims striking technique +2 (+4) Striking D — Below avg, rated 25 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Durability — Below avg, rated 34 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Wrestling — Average, rated 50 of 100 · 138 MMA: wrestling good · Apr 2025 · stats read 32 → nudged -9 inside the band · claims td offense +1 (+2) TD Defense — Below avg, rated 30 of 100 · 138 MMA tag td defense: suspect · Apr 2025 · stats read 28 → nudged -2 inside the band · claims td defense -1 (-2) Grappling — Below avg, rated 44 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Control — Below avg, rated 27 of 100 · claims top control +1 (+4) Striking Accuracy Striking D Durability Wrestling TD Defense Grappling Control
striking good
3 analyst reads graded this phase
  • good UFC Fight Night Machado Garry vs Prates Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · April 22, 2025 watch ↗
  • solid UFC Fight Night Holm vs Bueno Silva Full Card Breakdown, Analysis, and Predictions (UFC Vegas 77) · July 11, 2023 watch ↗
  • solid UFC Fight Night Andrade vs Blanchfield Predictions & Full Card Breakdown UFC Vegas 69 · February 14, 2023 watch ↗
grappling not yet read
wrestling good
3 analyst reads graded this phase
  • good UFC Fight Night Machado Garry vs Prates Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · April 22, 2025 watch ↗
  • decent UFC Fight Night Holm vs Bueno Silva Full Card Breakdown, Analysis, and Predictions (UFC Vegas 77) · July 11, 2023 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Andrade vs Blanchfield Predictions & Full Card Breakdown UFC Vegas 69 · February 14, 2023 watch ↗
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read
striking good 3 reads
grappling not yet read
wrestling good 3 reads
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read

138 MMA anchors Striking, Wrestling, TD Defense · his tags and claims adjust Accuracy, Control · stats alone on Striking D, Durability, Grappling.

Built on 62 minutes of tracked cage time across 5 statted fights — every axis is held down until there is more tape, so read this as a sketch rather than a verdict.

Forward Pressure 5.7 landed and 4.9 absorbed per minute — he turns fights into firefights
Relentless Attack 85 offensive actions per 15 min — strikes, takedown and submission attempts together
Suspect TD Defense 138 MMA · Apr 2025 tags td defense: suspect
Career rates — the raw numbers behind the chart
Sig. strikes landed / min5.66
Sig. strikes absorbed / min4.94
Striking accuracy50.9%
Striking defense57.4%
Knockdowns / 15 min0.48
Takedowns / 15 min0.48
Takedown accuracy15.4%
Takedown defense40.0%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.48
Control time9.2%
Record vs .500+ opponents0-0

Insider info

3 analyst reads · 138 MMA · our paraphrase, never his words
vs Guage Young coinflip UFC Fight Night Machado Garry vs Prates Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · April 22, 2025
strikinggood wrestlinggood

Explicitly says he wants no part of wagering on this one, citing too many unknowns, and takes Elder only to have a pick on record rather than a bet -- the clearest wager-caution-plus-outcome-doubt statement on the card.

Our paraphrase: a pretty good striker at range who leans on a body kick as his go-to weapon and strings combinations together. Good, if less polished than his opponent, wrestling with good takedowns and top control, but his own takedown defense is only so-so. The deciding edge cited is cardio, which matters specifically because his short-notice opponent's conditioning is unknown.

Strengthgood striking at range
Strengthbody kick as a go-to weapon
Strengthcombinations
Strengthgood takedowns and top control
Strengthreally solid cardio
Weaknesstakedown defense is so-so
range · longtd defense · suspect
vs Genaro Valdéz lean UFC Fight Night Holm vs Bueno Silva Full Card Breakdown, Analysis, and Predictions (UFC Vegas 77) · July 11, 2023 · 1 read since
strikingsolid wrestlingdecent

Says 'I lean Elder' and states he is passing the bet rather than playing it; also floats playing the spread on the opponent instead.

A clean, solid striker who works well at range with body kicks and combinations, mixes in decent wrestling with good top control, and has the cardio to go three full rounds -- the analyst's stated main path for him is wearing Valdez down over distance.

StrengthCleaner, more technical striker of the two
StrengthGood body kicks at range, good combinations
StrengthDecent wrestling, good takedowns and top control
StrengthStrong three-round cardio
WeaknessTakedown defense isn't good, per the analyst directly
td defense · suspect
vs Nazim Sadykhov lean UFC Fight Night Andrade vs Blanchfield Predictions & Full Card Breakdown UFC Vegas 69 · February 14, 2023 · 2 reads since
strikingsolid wrestlinggood

He names it only a slight lean toward Sadykhov, declines to wager, and admits far less certainty than most people seem to have, favoring Sadykhov's inside boxing and finishing intent over Elder's kicking range.

A range striker who likes kicks and has a notable cardio advantage. Our words: his offensive wrestling looks pretty good, but he gives up takedowns too easily on defense, and the analyst thinks his best path is keeping the fight at kicking range against Sadykhov's inside-fighting style.

Strengthsolid striking: likes kicks, good at range
Strengthoffensively solid wrestling
Strengthexcellent cardio ('cardio for days')
Weaknessgets taken down a little too easily
td defense · suspect

Striking trend

Sig. strikes/min, last 5 fights · green = win
April 23, 2022 vs Preston Parsons — 1.8/min (L) Apr '22 February 18, 2023 vs Nazim Sadykhov — 6.58/min (L) Feb '23 July 15, 2023 vs Genaro Valdez — 6.4/min (W) Jul '23 July 13, 2024 vs Darrius Flowers — 6.65/min (W) Jul '24 April 26, 2025 vs Gauge Young — 7.67/min (W) Apr '25

Fight history

5 UFC bouts · newest first · opponent records as of fight night
W Gauge Young 0-0 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · April 26, 2025
115/210Sig. strikes
81/183Absorbed
0/3Takedowns
0:16Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Darrius Flowers 0-2 walk-in Submission · R2 1:46 — UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · July 13, 2024
45/86Sig. strikes
24/60Absorbed
0/1Takedowns
2:01Control
0Knockdowns
1Sub attempts
W Genaro Valdez 0-2 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · July 15, 2023
96/195Sig. strikes
64/236Absorbed
1/1Takedowns
0:06Control
1Knockdowns
1Sub attempts
L Nazim Sadykhov 7-1 walk-in TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · R3 0:38 — UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · February 18, 2023
70/142Sig. strikes
64/132Absorbed
1/6Takedowns
1:33Control
1Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Preston Parsons 0-1 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · April 23, 2022
27/60Sig. strikes
75/112Absorbed
0/2Takedowns
1:47Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts

Walk-in records count UFC bouts in this database. For the pre-UFC career, see the record breakdown below or the Tapology button up top.

Record breakdown

UFC bouts in this database
3-2-0UFC record

Wins by method

KO/TKO 0
Submission 1
Decision 2
Other 0

Losses by method

KO/TKO 1
Submission 0
Decision 1
Other 0

Fights by organization

UFC 5

Showing UFC fights only — this fighter's full pre-UFC career hasn't been synced yet. It will fill in as the weekly career backfill reaches them.

Division context

vs. 195 qualified Lightweight fighters · tick = division mean
Striking volume /min 5.7 avg 3.5
Strikes absorbed /min 4.9 avg 3.6
Striking accuracy 50.9% avg 44.0%
Striking defense 57.4% avg 55.7%
Takedowns /15 min 0.5 avg 1.6
Takedown accuracy 15.4% avg 38.1%
Takedown defense 40.0% avg 61.1%
Sub attempts /15 min 0.5 avg 0.6
Control time 9.2% avg 21.3%
Finish rate 33.3% avg 50.7%

Headshot of Evan Elder by UFC · Official UFC athlete photo (copyright UFC; not freely licensed) · Wikimedia Commons · flattened onto dark background, cropped/resized