Felipe Lima

Gives a direct mechanism -- Charrierre may be the technically prettier boxer, but Lima is the one the analyst expects to actually land real damage, and he says a grounded fight belongs entirely to Lima -- with no hedge on the win itself.

A good, high-guard striker with a fast jab, good combinations, dangerous pocket work, and solid body punching and footwork. His grappling is rated solid outright -- he advances position well, has slick transitions, thrives in scrambles, stays active off his back, and can land both traditional and unorthodox sweeps. The analyst expects he's the one putting real damage out and dominating if the fight hits the mat.

He flags up front that this pick could change by the panel show on Thursday, calls it one of the card's closest fights, says he probably won't bet on it, and gives the pick with root-beer language and an explicit 'for now.' That is a pick held provisionally, not a settled read.

Lima is read as a complete, well-rounded prospect: a good striker with a high guard, fast jab and dangerous body work, paired with a solid, submission-capable grappling game (back-taking, sweeps, excellent transitions, constant scrambling activity). His grappling is explicitly named as his best path to victory against Talbott's known defensive holes, even though he is moving back down to bantamweight.

Explicitly weighs two live paths for Johns (wrestling/control, or counter-striking) and calls both 'dangerous', then settles on Lima purely on an expected activity/volume edge rather than dismissing either path.

Solid, complete grappler -- back-taker, good at transitions and sweeps, active off his back, with takedown defense as his one real hole. Analyst rates his striking very good as well: good high guard to work forward behind, dangerous in the pocket, works the body. On a hot streak (5-0 in his last five since a short-notice UFC debut win) and picked on an expected activity/volume edge.

A very good, solid grappler whose takedown defense is only so-so but who shines once on top, with smooth transitions while advancing position, back-taking, and a leg-lace setup into ground and pound. He can be swept but typically works his own reversal and gets back on top. Also a good striker with a high guard who throws combinations, and the grappling threat itself sets up the striking. Stepping up in weight on short notice after being released from an exclusive contract to get his UFC opportunity.