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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator
Josiah Harrell
Lightweight · “The Muscle Hamster”

Josiah Harrell

11-2-0 UFC 0-2-0
Wrestler Submission Grappler
5'7"Height
68"Reach
SouthpawStance
27Age
0KO wins
0Sub wins
0%Finish rate
3:37Avg fight

Skill profile

Rated 0–100 · where 138 MMA has read him, his grades and tags set each axis and the stats only nudge inside his band · stats alone where he is silent · the rim is reserved for specialists
Striking — Below avg, rated 38 of 100 · 138 MMA whiteboard: striking decent · Sep 2026 · stats read 31 → nudged -3 inside the band · claims striking power +1, striking technique -1, kicking +1 (+2) Accuracy — Below avg, rated 43 of 100 · claims striking technique -1 (-2) Striking D — Weak, rated 11 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Durability — Weak, rated 6 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Wrestling — Average, rated 56 of 100 · 138 MMA: wrestling good · Jul 2023 · stats read 41 → nudged -6 inside the band · claims td offense +2 (+4) TD Defense — Below avg, rated 40 of 100 · 138 MMA: wrestling good (no takedown-defence tag), half-weighted with the stats read 24 Grappling — Average, rated 54 of 100 · 138 MMA: grappling good · Sep 2026 · stats read 33 → nudged -8 inside the band · claims sub offense +3, ground and pound +1 (+6) Control — Below avg, rated 44 of 100 · claims ground and pound +1 (+2) Striking Accuracy Striking D Durability Wrestling TD Defense Grappling Control
striking decent whiteboard
2 analyst reads graded this phase
  • decent UFC Fight Night Rosas vs Barcelos Full Card Preview & Predictions · September 23, 2026 · whiteboard watch ↗
  • decent UFC 290 Full Card Breakdown, Analysis, And Predictions · July 4, 2023 watch ↗
grappling good
1 analyst read graded this phase
  • good UFC Fight Night Rosas vs Barcelos Full Card Preview & Predictions · September 23, 2026 watch ↗
wrestling good
1 analyst read graded this phase
  • good UFC 290 Full Card Breakdown, Analysis, And Predictions · July 4, 2023 watch ↗
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read
striking decent 2 reads · whiteboard
grappling good 1 read
wrestling good 1 read
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read

138 MMA anchors Striking, Wrestling, Grappling · his tags and claims adjust Accuracy, TD Defense, Control · stats alone on Striking D, Durability.

Built on 7 minutes of tracked cage time across 2 statted fights — every axis is held down until there is more tape, so read this as a sketch rather than a verdict.

Wrestler average wrestling — rates 56 of 100 · 138 MMA: wrestling good · Jul 2023
Submission Grappler average grappling — rates 54 of 100 · 138 MMA: grappling good · Sep 2026
Career rates — the raw numbers behind the chart
Sig. strikes landed / min2.21
Sig. strikes absorbed / min8.0
Striking accuracy45.7%
Striking defense30.1%
Knockdowns / 15 min0.0
Takedowns / 15 min4.14
Takedown accuracy40.0%
Takedown defense0.0%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.0
Control time7.8%
Record vs .500+ opponents0-1

Insider info

2 analyst reads · 138 MMA · our paraphrase, never his words
vs Elves Brener coinflip UFC Fight Night Rosas vs Barcelos Full Card Preview & Predictions · September 23, 2026
grapplinggood strikingdecent wrestlinggood

The pick follows immediately after "I could be wrong" (quote, 4 words) and "I'm not really sure", with the analyst favoring the opponent in grappling just before picking Brener.

A forward-pressing striker with decent power and kicks to all levels, built stockily and strongly for his weight class. His main gameplan is a specialist one: getting to an opponent's back, where he controls, chokes and strikes effectively. He is largely built around that one high-level skill.

Strengthdecent power and kicks to all levels
Strengthstrong frame for his weight class
Strengthelite-level back-take specialty
Strengtheffective ground-and-pound and finishing from the back
Weaknesslargely defined by a single specialist skill, not detailed elsewhere
ko power · decent
vs Jack Della Maddalena emphatic UFC 290 Full Card Breakdown, Analysis, And Predictions · July 4, 2023 · 1 read since
strikingdecent wrestlinggood

Calls Della Maddalena the clear favorite, flatly says this one isn't hard to call, and frames Harrell's short-notice, up-a-weight-class assignment as too big a step for him right now.

Harrell (captioned 'Harold') is a good wrestler with good takedowns who works to the back and looks for the ground-and-pound, with decent striking and what the analyst calls solid legs underneath his power and takedowns. He is moving up from lightweight, where he had been missing weight, to welterweight, and is stepping in on short notice.

Strengthgood takedowns
Strengthworks to the back
Strengthground-and-pound
Weaknessdecent, not standout striking

Fight history

2 UFC bouts · newest first · opponent records as of fight night
L Elves Brener 3-3 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 4:14 — UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos · September 26, 2026
9/21Sig. strikes
25/36Absorbed
2/3Takedowns
0:33Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Jacobe Smith 2-0 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 3:01 — UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · February 21, 2026
7/14Sig. strikes
33/47Absorbed
0/2Takedowns
0:01Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts

Walk-in records count UFC bouts in this database. For the pre-UFC career, see the record breakdown below or the Tapology button up top.

Record breakdown

Full pro career (Wikipedia, results only)
11-2-0Pro record
Grove City BJJ AcademyGym / team

Wins by method

KO/TKO 6
Submission 4
Decision 1
Other 0

Losses by method

KO/TKO 2
Submission 0
Decision 0
Other 0

Fights by organization

Ohio Combat League 8
UFC 2
LFA 2
Cage Fury FC 1
Full career — 13 fights, every organization
OpponentMethodEventOrg RdTime
L Elves Brener TKO (punches) UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
September 26, 2026
UFC 1 4:14
L Jacobe Smith KO (punches) UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
February 21, 2026
UFC 1 3:01
W Bekmyrza Dosmatov TKO (corner stoppage) LFA 224
January 16, 2026
LFA 3 3:28
W Kegan Gennrich Decision (unanimous) Ohio Combat League 39
August 2, 2025
Ohio Combat League 3 5:00
W Melvin Guillard Submission (rear-naked choke) Ohio Combat League 38
May 17, 2025
Ohio Combat League 1 3:25
W Quinton Parks Jr. TKO (punches) Ohio Combat League 36
March 1, 2025
Ohio Combat League 2 3:34
W Michael Roberts TKO (punches) LFA 160
June 16, 2023
LFA 3 3:27
W Tracey Reeder TKO (punches) Cage Fury FC 113
October 8, 2022
Cage Fury FC 2 2:59
W John Ramirez TKO (punches) Ohio Combat League 18
March 5, 2022
Ohio Combat League 3 2:23
W Homer Mangram Submission (rear-naked choke) Ohio Combat League 16
November 20, 2021
Ohio Combat League 1 2:59
W Timothy Tyler TKO (knee injury) Ohio Combat League 14
July 14, 2021
Ohio Combat League 1 5:00
W Carlos Garnett Jr. Submission (rear-naked choke) Ohio Combat League 10
March 5, 2021
Ohio Combat League 2 4:56
W William Worley Submission (armbar) Ohio Combat League 7
March 7, 2020
Ohio Combat League 2 4:25

Career history from the fighter's Wikipedia record table (Josiah Harrell) — results only, no strike stats; UFC bouts are marked and carry full stats in the fight history above.

Division context

vs. 195 qualified Lightweight fighters · tick = division mean
Striking volume /min 2.2 avg 3.5
Strikes absorbed /min 8.0 avg 3.6
Striking accuracy 45.7% avg 44.0%
Striking defense 30.1% avg 55.7%
Takedowns /15 min 4.1 avg 1.6
Takedown accuracy 40.0% avg 38.1%
Takedown defense 0.0% avg 61.1%
Sub attempts /15 min 0.0 avg 0.6
Control time 7.8% avg 21.3%

Headshot of Josiah Harrell by UFC · Official UFC athlete photo (copyright UFC; not freely licensed) · Wikimedia Commons · flattened onto dark background, cropped/resized