Kris Moutinho

Says he is sticking with the favorite reluctantly and calls this fight closer than people expect, then invokes the 'root beer' idiom - which caps conviction per the confidence-bar rule - stacked with real uncertainty about Quinonez's form after a long layoff.

A decent striker who comes forward behind volume and basic combinations, durable enough to stay in an opponent's face even though his own defense isn't great. Decent grappling built around a cage push and 'dirty boxing' gimmick - once he gets an opponent against the cage he works them over and attacks chokes.

Unhedged declarative pick ('Malcolm Wallmaker is the pick'), framed as the biggest favorite on the whole card with a specific stylistic reason the matchup favors him.

Returning after a stretch of losses that took him out of the promotion, now riding a five-fight winning streak back in. A decent, forward-pressure striker who pushes real volume behind basic combinations and does not fold on his own -- his finishes have tended to come via referee stoppage rather than him quitting. A decent grappler who works from a cage push, mixes in some dirty boxing, and will go after submission attempts.