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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator
Middleweight

Kyle Daukaus

17-5-0 (1 NC) UFC 4-6-0 (1 NC)
Smothering Control Positional Grappler Gets Dropped KO-Prone
6'2"Height
76"Reach
SouthpawStance
33Age
1KO wins
2Sub wins
75.0%Finish rate
6:39Avg fight

Skill profile

Rated 0–100 · where 138 MMA has read him, his grades and tags set each axis and the stats only nudge inside his band · stats alone where he is silent · the rim is reserved for specialists
Striking — Below avg, rated 44 of 100 · 138 MMA: striking decent · Oct 2026 · stats read 43 → nudged +1 inside the band · claims striking power +1, striking technique +1, pressure +1 (+4) Accuracy — Above avg, rated 70 of 100 · claims striking technique +1 (+2) Striking D — Weak, rated 15 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Durability — Weak, rated 4 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Wrestling — Above avg, rated 79 of 100 · claims td offense +1, clinch +1 (+3) TD Defense — Average, rated 69 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Grappling — Strong, rated 85 of 100 · 138 MMA whiteboard: grappling solid · Oct 2026 · stats read 86 → nudged +3 inside the band · tag sub threat: good (+3) · claims sub offense +1 (+2) Control — Strong, rated 93 of 100 · claims top control +1 (+4) Striking Accuracy Striking D Durability Wrestling TD Defense Grappling Control
striking decent
4 analyst reads graded this phase
  • decent UFC Fight Night Buckley vs Malott Full Card Preview & Predictions · October 11, 2026 watch ↗
  • decent UFC Freedom 250 Full Card Preview & Predictions · June 7, 2026 watch ↗
  • decent UFC 322 · November 11, 2025 watch ↗
  • decent UFC Fight Night Walker vs Zhang Full Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · August 18, 2025 watch ↗
grappling solid whiteboard
3 analyst reads graded this phase
  • solid UFC Fight Night Buckley vs Malott Full Card Preview & Predictions · October 11, 2026 · whiteboard watch ↗
  • very good UFC Freedom 250 Full Card Preview & Predictions · June 7, 2026 watch ↗
  • solid UFC Fight Night Walker vs Zhang Full Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · August 18, 2025 watch ↗
wrestling not yet read
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read
striking decent 4 reads
grappling solid 3 reads · whiteboard
wrestling not yet read
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read

138 MMA anchors Striking, Grappling · his tags and claims adjust Accuracy, Wrestling, Control · stats alone on Striking D, Durability, TD Defense.

Built on 73 minutes of tracked cage time across 11 statted fights — every axis is held down until there is more tape, so read this as a sketch rather than a verdict.

Smothering Control 43% of every fight spent in control position
Positional Grappler strong control — rates 93 of 100 · claims top control +1 (+4)
Gets Dropped knocked down 6 times in 73 minutes of cage time
KO-Prone 4 of 6 losses came by knockout
Career rates — the raw numbers behind the chart
Sig. strikes landed / min2.76
Sig. strikes absorbed / min3.47
Striking accuracy49.4%
Striking defense41.1%
Knockdowns / 15 min0.41
Takedowns / 15 min2.05
Takedown accuracy24.4%
Takedown defense71.4%
Sub attempts / 15 min1.43
Control time42.8%
Record vs .500+ opponents1-4

Insider info

5 analyst reads · 138 MMA · our paraphrase, never his words
vs Marc Andre Barriault emphatic UFC Fight Night Buckley vs Malott Full Card Preview & Predictions · October 11, 2026
strikingdecent grapplingvery good

expects a comfortable, lopsided win

A decent striker with a few basic boxing combinations and good enough power. His main strength is grappling: fine takedowns, good cage pressure and smooth mat transitions, and a submission game that leans heavily on one move (D'Arce) rather than a deep arsenal. The analyst highlights a clear uptick in tenacity and determination compared to his earlier UFC run.

Strengthdecent power, basic boxing combinations
Strengthreliable grappler, good takedowns
Strengthgood cage pressure, smooth mat transitions
StrengthD'Arce choke as a standout, go-to finishing move
Strengthvisibly more tenacious/determined than in his first UFC run
Weaknesssubmission game largely stops at one move (D'Arce) rather than a broad arsenal
vs Bo Nickal lean UFC Freedom 250 Full Card Preview & Predictions · June 7, 2026 · 1 read since
strikingdecent grapplingvery good

picks Nickal by decision but admits he 'would not be surprised at all' by a Daukaus finish

Coming off a five-fight win streak after being written off following his UFC release, the analyst calls him the cleaner, better striker of the two and the better jiu-jitsu player, anchored by a dangerous darce choke. He fights with real urgency, looking to finish rather than play it safe, which the analyst thinks could matter against a less experienced opponent.

Strengthcleaner striker of the two
Strengthdecent power, solid basic combinations
Strengthvery good submission arsenal, especially the darce
Strengthtransitions well on the mat
Strengthgood cage push
Strengthfights with urgency, looks to finish
ko power · decent
vs Gerald Meerschaert clear UFC 322 · November 11, 2025 · 2 reads since
strikingdecent grapplingsolid

Picks Daukaus citing Meerschaert's declining durability at this stage of his career and a predictable round-three submission gameplan the analyst says everyone now sees coming.

A decent striker who the analyst likes for fighting with urgency throughout, carrying decent power with basic combinations. His real advantage is grappling: a good submission arsenal built around a darce-choke specialty, decent takedowns and really good transitions. The analyst's favored path for him is a cage push and dirty boxing to grind out rounds safely, since fully grappling a craftier submission threat carries risk.

Strengthfights with constant urgency
Strengthdecent power
Strengthgood submission arsenal, darce-choke specialist
Strengthreally good transitions
Strengthgood cage push/dirty boxing
ko power · decentsub threat · good
vs Michel Pereira clear UFC Fight Night Walker vs Zhang Full Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · August 18, 2025 · 3 reads since
strikingdecent grapplingsolid

Stated plainly twice, 'we're going to take Pereira,' calling him 'the rightful favorite' with no hedge on the win.

An unspectacular but functional striker (fair pop, simple combinations) whose real identity is on the mat -- a strong grappler whose whole game is built around a feared Darce choke, backed by fair takedowns, strong cage control and clean positional movement. The trait the analyst likes most, separate from the choke game, is his nonstop finishing pressure. He steps in on short notice, traveling to Shanghai, which the analyst treats as a genuine step up against the card's favorite. As of 2025-08-18.

Strengthstrong mat grappler built around a feared Darce choke
Strengthfair takedowns, strong cage control, clean positional movement
Strengthfights with nonstop finishing pressure, not just working for position
Weaknessdecent, unspectacular striker (decent power, basic combinations)
vs Eryk Anders lean UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs Holland Full Card Analysis, Preview, and Prediction · November 29, 2022 · 4 reads since

says outright he leans Anders but is not super confident, and admits his own bias toward him

A younger jiu-jitsu-based fighter with a long reach he says sets up a favorite submission look, and who he does not consider lost in a clinch exchange either. He frames Daukaus as still ascending and not yet at his best.

Strengthlong reach that sets up a favored submission entry
Strengthcomfortable grappling from the clinch or the mat
sub threat · good

Striking trend

Sig. strikes/min, last 8 fights · green = win
October 2, 2021 vs Kevin Holland — 2.42/min (NC) — only 3.7 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Oct '21 February 19, 2022 vs Jamie Pickett — 1.2/min (W) — only 5.0 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Feb '22 June 18, 2022 vs Roman Dolidze — 3.29/min (L) — only 1.2 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Jun '22 December 3, 2022 vs Eryk Anders — 4.77/min (L) Dec '22 August 23, 2025 vs Michel Pereira — 6.98/min (W) — only 0.7 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Aug '25 November 15, 2025 vs Gerald Meerschaert — 9.6/min (W) — only 0.8 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Nov '25 June 14, 2026 vs Bo Nickal — 0.44/min (L) — only 4.6 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Jun '26 October 17, 2026 vs Marc-Andre Barriault — 1.12/min (L) — only 4.5 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Oct '26

Fight history

11 UFC bouts · newest first · opponent records as of fight night
L Marc-Andre Barriault 17-11 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 4:28 — UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · October 17, 2026
5/11Sig. strikes
32/46Absorbed
1/3Takedowns
3:15Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Bo Nickal 8-1 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 4:34 — UFC Freedom 250 · June 14, 2026
2/7Sig. strikes
16/24Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Gerald Meerschaert 37-20 walk-in Submission · R1 0:50 — UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · November 15, 2025
8/11Sig. strikes
0/2Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:17Control
1Knockdowns
1Sub attempts
W Michel Pereira 31-13 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 0:43 — UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · August 23, 2025
5/8Sig. strikes
2/4Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:07Control
1Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Eryk Anders 14-7 walk-in KO/TKO · R2 2:45 — UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · December 3, 2022
37/79Sig. strikes
49/94Absorbed
0/8Takedowns
0:44Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Roman Dolidze 9-1 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 1:13 — UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · June 18, 2022
4/9Sig. strikes
8/15Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Jamie Pickett 13-6 walk-in Submission · R1 4:59 — UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill · February 19, 2022
6/9Sig. strikes
5/9Absorbed
3/6Takedowns
4:12Control
0Knockdowns
2Sub attempts
NC Kevin Holland 21-7 walk-in Overturned · R1 3:43 — UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · October 2, 2021
9/13Sig. strikes
3/7Absorbed
1/5Takedowns
2:10Control
0Knockdowns
3Sub attempts
L Phil Hawes 10-2 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · May 8, 2021
28/82Sig. strikes
66/101Absorbed
0/7Takedowns
4:13Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Dustin Stoltzfus 13-1 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · November 21, 2020
64/122Sig. strikes
32/63Absorbed
2/7Takedowns
8:40Control
0Knockdowns
1Sub attempts
L Brendan Allen 14-3 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker · June 27, 2020
34/58Sig. strikes
41/66Absorbed
3/5Takedowns
7:44Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts

Walk-in records count UFC bouts in this database. For the pre-UFC career, see the record breakdown below or the Tapology button up top.

Record breakdown

Full pro career (Wikipedia, results only)
17-5-0 (1 NC)Pro record
The Forge MMAGym / team

Wins by method

KO/TKO 2
Submission 12
Decision 3
Other 0

Losses by method

KO/TKO 2
Submission 0
Decision 2
Other 0

No contests: 1

Fights by organization

UFC 9
Cage Fury FC 8
Dana White's Contender Series 1
Ring of Combat 1
Art of War Cage Fighting 1
KOTC 1
Asylum Fight League 1
Full career — 22 fights, every organization
OpponentMethodEventOrg RdTime
W Gerald Meerschaert Submission (brabo choke) UFC 322
November 15, 2025
UFC 1 0:50
W Michel Pereira KO (punches and elbows) UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang
August 23, 2025
UFC 1 0:43
W Keanan Patershuk KO (punches) Cage Fury FC 132
June 14, 2024
Cage Fury FC 1 1:24
W Sean Connor Fallon Submission (brabo choke) Cage Fury FC 129
February 9, 2024
Cage Fury FC 3 3:45
W Gregg Ellis Decision (unanimous) Cage Fury FC 124
September 2, 2023
Cage Fury FC 4 5:00
W Robert Gidron Submission (rear-naked choke) Cage Fury FC 120
June 16, 2023
Cage Fury FC 1 4:59
L Eryk Anders TKO (punches) UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland
December 3, 2022
UFC 2 2:45
L Roman Dolidze KO (knee and punches) UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Emmett
June 18, 2022
UFC 1 1:13
W Jamie Pickett Submission (brabo choke) UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
February 19, 2022
UFC 1 4:59
NC Kevin Holland NC (accidental clash of heads) UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker
October 2, 2021
UFC 1 3:43
L Phil Hawes Decision (unanimous) UFC on ESPN: Rodriguez vs. Waterson
May 8, 2021
UFC 3 5:00
W Dustin Stoltzfus Decision (unanimous) UFC 255
November 21, 2020
UFC 3 5:00
L Brendan Allen Decision (unanimous) UFC on ESPN: Poirier vs. Hooker
June 27, 2020
UFC 3 5:00
W Nolan Norwood Submission (brabo choke) Cage Fury FC 81
February 1, 2020
Cage Fury FC 2 4:36
W Stephen Regman Submission (brabo choke) Cage Fury FC 78
September 21, 2019
Cage Fury FC 2 0:52
W Michael Lombardo Decision (unanimous) Dana White's Contender Series 18
June 25, 2019
Dana White's Contender Series 3 5:00
W Jonavin Webb Technical Submission (brabo choke) Cage Fury FC 72
February 16, 2019
Cage Fury FC 3 5:00
W Dustin Long Submission (rear-naked choke) Ring of Combat 66
November 16, 2018
Ring of Combat 1 2:51
W Elijah Gbollie Submission (rear-naked choke) Art of War Cage Fighting 5
February 16, 2018
Art of War Cage Fighting 2 4:30
W Tyler Bayer Submission (brabo choke) Cage Fury FC 69
December 16, 2017
Cage Fury FC 2 2:32
W Kyle Walker Submission (brabo choke) KOTC: Regulator
July 1, 2017
KOTC 1 1:41
W Dino Juklo Submission (rear-naked choke) Asylum Fight League 53
February 18, 2017
Asylum Fight League 1 2:35

Career history from the fighter's Wikipedia record table (Kyle Daukaus) — results only, no strike stats; UFC bouts are marked and carry full stats in the fight history above.

Division context

vs. 168 qualified Middleweight fighters · tick = division mean
Striking volume /min 2.8 avg 3.3
Strikes absorbed /min 3.5 avg 3.3
Striking accuracy 49.4% avg 47.0%
Striking defense 41.1% avg 53.4%
Takedowns /15 min 2.0 avg 1.6
Takedown accuracy 24.4% avg 40.4%
Takedown defense 71.4% avg 61.3%
Sub attempts /15 min 1.4 avg 0.7
Control time 42.8% avg 21.6%
Finish rate 75.0% avg 60.8%

Hero photo of Kyle Daukaus by Fight Bananas Official · CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons