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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator
Lauren Murphy
Women's Flyweight · “Lucky”

Lauren Murphy

16-7-0 UFC 8-7-0
Durable Hard To Take Down Hittable
5'5"Height
67"Reach
OrthodoxStance
43Age
2KO wins
1Sub wins
37.5%Finish rate
14:36Avg fight

Skill profile

Rated 0–100 · where 138 MMA has read him, his grades and tags set each axis and the stats only nudge inside his band · stats alone where he is silent · the rim is reserved for specialists
Striking — Below avg, rated 36 of 100 · claims striking technique -1, pressure +3 (+0) · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Accuracy — Weak, rated 10 of 100 · claims striking technique -1 (-2) Striking D — Weak, rated 12 of 100 · claims striking defense -1 (-3) Durability — Above avg, rated 77 of 100 · 138 MMA tag chin: durable · Jan 2023 · stats read 56 → nudged -3 inside the band · claims chin +3 (+6) Wrestling — Below avg, rated 44 of 100 · 138 MMA: wrestling decent · Jan 2023 · stats read 63 → nudged +5 inside the band · claims td offense +2 (+4) TD Defense — Above avg, rated 73 of 100 · 138 MMA tag td defense: good · Jan 2023 · stats read 64 → nudged -3 inside the band · claims td defense +1 (+2) Grappling — Below avg, rated 43 of 100 · claims ground and pound +1 (+1) Control — Average, rated 53 of 100 · claims top control +1, ground and pound +1 (+6) Striking Accuracy Striking D Durability Wrestling TD Defense Grappling Control
striking not yet read
grappling not yet read
wrestling decent
1 analyst read graded this phase
  • decent UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · January 18, 2023 watch ↗
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read
striking not yet read
grappling not yet read
wrestling decent 1 read
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read

138 MMA anchors Durability, Wrestling, TD Defense · his tags and claims adjust Accuracy, Striking D, Grappling, Control · stats alone on Striking.

Durable above avg durability — rates 77 of 100 · 138 MMA tag chin: durable · Jan 2023
Hard To Take Down above avg td defense — rates 73 of 100 · 138 MMA tag td defense: good · Jan 2023
Hittable absorbs 5.2 significant strikes per minute
Career rates — the raw numbers behind the chart
Sig. strikes landed / min3.94
Sig. strikes absorbed / min5.19
Striking accuracy38.5%
Striking defense56.8%
Knockdowns / 15 min0.07
Takedowns / 15 min1.09
Takedown accuracy24.6%
Takedown defense67.3%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.21
Control time17.5%
Record vs .500+ opponents4-3

Insider info

1 analyst read · 138 MMA · our paraphrase, never his words
vs Jessica Andrade lean UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · January 18, 2023
wrestlingdecent

Same grade as the opposite row. He picks Murphy while saying it may sound crazy and inviting abuse if she is stopped early. Supporting clauses are hedged: the idea that she can eat and return fire is conceded unproven ('definitely not' sure), 'real shot' states a chance, and he says he will probably not bet it and describes an underdog 'lunch money' wager. The unhedged part is the forecast that Andrade takes round one and Murphy takes over later. The qualifier 'I think' is attached to the win-level claims. Borderline coinflip; stored lean.

Murphy is the underdog pick here on the strength of her abrasive, grinding approach. She walks forward, works for takedowns, rides on top while punishing the person underneath, and answers punches with her own rather than backing off. The analyst expects Andrade to take the first round, with Murphy's accumulating pressure and toughness turning the fight her way over time.

StrengthRelentless forward pressure that wears opponents down faster than most.
StrengthHits back whenever she is hit, which many fighters cannot do.
StrengthTakes a punch very well and is called extremely tough.
StrengthWrestling is serviceable and works well with her pressure; she lays on top and grinds with elbows and body weight.
StrengthTakedown defence is called good, and he gives her the edge in straight wrestling.
StrengthHas the height and reach advantage.
WeaknessStriking defence is not especially good, and she will absorb shots in this fight.
WeaknessThrows punches with her elbows flared, which is not ideal technique.
WeaknessWhether she can really outlast Andrade's power is unproven and he says he cannot be certain.
WeaknessHer record against top opposition is viewed lowly by many, which he flags as the public view rather than his own.
td defense · goodchin · durable

Striking trend

Sig. strikes/min, last 8 fights · green = win
February 8, 2020 vs Andrea Lee — 5.33/min (W) Feb '20 June 20, 2020 vs Roxanne Modafferi — 4.8/min (W) Jun '20 October 24, 2020 vs Liliya Shakirova — 2.58/min (W) Oct '20 June 12, 2021 vs Joanne Wood — 5.33/min (W) Jun '21 September 25, 2021 vs Valentina Shevchenko — 0.58/min (L) Sep '21 July 16, 2022 vs Miesha Tate — 6.8/min (W) Jul '22 January 21, 2023 vs Jessica Andrade — 6.67/min (L) Jan '23 July 12, 2025 vs Eduarda Moura — 2.53/min (L) Jul '25

Fight history

15 UFC bouts · newest first · opponent records as of fight night
L Eduarda Moura 2-1 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · July 12, 2025
38/145Sig. strikes
64/235Absorbed
2/9Takedowns
1:03Control
0Knockdowns
2Sub attempts
L Jessica Andrade 23-9 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · January 21, 2023
100/293Sig. strikes
231/369Absorbed
0/15Takedowns
0:09Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Miesha Tate 17-8 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · July 16, 2022
102/184Sig. strikes
85/164Absorbed
2/6Takedowns
1:18Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Valentina Shevchenko 21-3 walk-in TITLE KO/TKO · R4 4:00 — UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · September 25, 2021
11/91Sig. strikes
98/170Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:41Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Joanne Wood 15-5 walk-in Decision - Split · R3 5:00 — UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · June 12, 2021
80/148Sig. strikes
123/228Absorbed
1/6Takedowns
4:54Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Liliya Shakirova 0-0 walk-in Submission · R2 3:31 — UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · October 24, 2020
22/85Sig. strikes
23/75Absorbed
1/1Takedowns
1:10Control
0Knockdowns
1Sub attempts
W Roxanne Modafferi 24-16 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov · June 20, 2020
72/158Sig. strikes
44/174Absorbed
2/3Takedowns
0:53Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Andrea Lee 11-3 walk-in Decision - Split · R3 5:00 — UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes · February 8, 2020
80/197Sig. strikes
104/267Absorbed
2/4Takedowns
2:31Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Mara Romero Borella 12-5 walk-in KO/TKO · R3 1:46 — UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler · August 3, 2019
24/123Sig. strikes
22/72Absorbed
0/1Takedowns
2:16Control
1Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Sijara Eubanks 2-2 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · June 1, 2018
49/125Sig. strikes
75/213Absorbed
0/2Takedowns
0:10Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Barb Honchak 10-2 walk-in Decision - Split · R3 5:00 — The Ultimate Fighter: A New World Champion Finale · December 1, 2017
59/197Sig. strikes
71/236Absorbed
2/2Takedowns
3:28Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Katlyn Cerminara 7-0 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker · July 13, 2016
38/143Sig. strikes
45/139Absorbed
1/4Takedowns
5:42Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Kelly Faszholz 3-0 walk-in KO/TKO · R3 4:55 — UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy · February 21, 2016
95/171Sig. strikes
76/145Absorbed
1/3Takedowns
6:17Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Liz Carmouche 9-5 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas · April 4, 2015
46/102Sig. strikes
38/66Absorbed
2/9Takedowns
7:29Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Sara McMann 7-1 walk-in Decision - Split · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux · August 16, 2014
48/83Sig. strikes
38/80Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:16Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts

Walk-in records count UFC bouts in this database. For the pre-UFC career, see the record breakdown below or the Tapology button up top.

Record breakdown

Full pro career (Wikipedia, results only)
16-7-0Pro record
The MMA Lab (2014–2019), Main Street Boxing and Muay Thai (2019–present), Grindhouse MMA (2019–present)Gym / team

Wins by method

KO/TKO 8
Submission 1
Decision 7
Other 0

Losses by method

KO/TKO 1
Submission 0
Decision 6
Other 0

Fights by organization

UFC 15
Invicta FC 3
Alaska FC 3
Legacy FC 1
Alaska Cage Fighting 1
Full career — 23 fights, every organization
OpponentMethodEventOrg RdTime
L Eduarda Moura Decision (unanimous) UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Teixeira
July 12, 2025
UFC 3 5:00
L Jéssica Andrade Decision (unanimous) UFC 283
January 21, 2023
UFC 3 5:00
W Miesha Tate Decision (unanimous) UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodríguez
July 16, 2022
UFC 3 5:00
L Valentina Shevchenko TKO (elbows and punches) UFC 266
September 25, 2021
UFC 4 4:00
W Joanne Calderwood Decision (split) UFC 263
June 12, 2021
UFC 3 5:00
W Liliya Shakirova Submission (rear-naked choke) UFC 254
October 24, 2020
UFC 2 3:31
W Roxanne Modafferi Decision (unanimous) UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Volkov
June 20, 2020
UFC 3 5:00
W Andrea Lee Decision (split) UFC 247
February 8, 2020
UFC 3 5:00
W Mara Romero Borella TKO (knee and elbows) UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Lawler
August 3, 2019
UFC 3 1:46
L Sijara Eubanks Decision (unanimous) UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes
June 1, 2018
UFC 3 5:00
W Barb Honchak Decision (split) The Ultimate Fighter: A New World Champion Finale
December 1, 2017
UFC 3 5:00
L Katlyn Chookagian Decision (unanimous) UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker
July 13, 2016
UFC 3 5:00
W Kelly Faszholz TKO (elbows and punches) UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Cowboy
February 21, 2016
UFC 3 4:55
L Liz Carmouche Decision (unanimous) UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs. Lamas
April 4, 2015
UFC 3 5:00
L Sara McMann Decision (split) UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Saint Preux
August 16, 2014
UFC 3 5:00
W Miriam Nakamoto TKO (knee injury) Invicta FC 7
December 7, 2013
Invicta FC 4 0:23
W Sarah D'Alelio Decision (unanimous) Invicta FC 6
July 13, 2013
Invicta FC 3 5:00
W Kaitlin Young Decision (unanimous) Invicta FC 5
April 5, 2013
Invicta FC 3 5:00
W Jennifer Scott TKO (elbows) Legacy FC 18
March 1, 2013
Legacy FC 1 4:10
W Julia Griffin TKO (punches) Alaska Cage Fighting: Tribute to Veterans
October 28, 2011
Alaska Cage Fighting 2 4:26
W Willow Bailey TKO (retirement) Alaska FC 79
January 12, 2011
Alaska FC 2 3:00
W Leslie Wright TKO (punches) Alaska FC 76
October 13, 2010
Alaska FC 2 2:25
W Kloiah Wayland TKO (punches) Alaska FC: Mat Su Showdown 2
June 9, 2010
Alaska FC 1 0:17

Career history from the fighter's Wikipedia record table (Lauren Murphy) — results only, no strike stats; UFC bouts are marked and carry full stats in the fight history above.

Division context

vs. 56 qualified Women's Flyweight fighters · tick = division mean
Striking volume /min 3.9 avg 4.0
Strikes absorbed /min 5.2 avg 3.8
Striking accuracy 38.5% avg 44.2%
Striking defense 56.8% avg 55.7%
Takedowns /15 min 1.1 avg 1.3
Takedown accuracy 24.6% avg 41.3%
Takedown defense 67.3% avg 60.7%
Sub attempts /15 min 0.2 avg 0.5
Control time 17.5% avg 21.4%
Finish rate 37.5% avg 39.3%

Headshot of Lauren Murphy by UFC · Official UFC athlete photo (copyright UFC; not freely licensed) · Wikimedia Commons · flattened onto dark background, cropped/resized