Louie Sutherland

Picks Montanha only on the condition he avoids pulling guard, then piles on repeated 'but' qualifiers undercutting his own pick -- a direct hedge on the win itself.

A good-enough striker with decent power and combinations who pokes out his jab and layers punches behind it, plus frequent leg kicks. He occasionally bursts in recklessly with his hands low, which is called a real but infrequent problem. His takedowns are only decent and often fail to get low enough, which tends to produce a cage push instead of a finished takedown.

takes the underdog but calls it a total pass; doubts the right game plan gets used

Louie Sutherland is filling in on roughly a week's notice, and on the feet he brings real tools: decent power, combinations, frequent leg kicks, and an active jab he doubles and triples up. His recurring flaw is charging in with his hands low, often on a lazy, too-high takedown attempt that leaves his chin exposed before he reaches a cage push. If he instead stays at range and picks at his opponent across the rounds, he is read as the more athletic fighter and able to win on points.

picks Pericic to win on feet

A pretty good heavyweight striker with decent power who throws real combinations, a frequent leg kick, and a double/triple jab, but he makes a clear defensive mistake by charging in with his hands low. His takedown attempts often fail because he does not get low enough (not the most athletic big man), which tends to land him in a cage push rather than real offense. Tougher recent opposition is cited, not a decline.

Direct pick on his grappling edge, with an explicit caveat that a heel-hook fixation is a longer-term risk, not a hedge on this fight.

Fights above the heavyweight-striking average: real pop behind his hands, a kicking attack that touches every level, and a jab he likes to stack two or three deep. Occasionally, for no stated reason, he abandons all of that and wades forward with his guard down. His entries off the feet come up short technically, so matches often settle into a cage-smothering exchange that still favors him. One outside note: he reportedly looked out of fighting shape at a weigh-in for a different bout, since called off, against a man named Tafa. As of 2025-10-20.

He says directly that he is not confident in this pick whatsoever, right after naming Sutherland, and separately concedes Tafa could knock him out.

A pretty good striker with decent power, good combinations and frequent (though not heavy) leg kicks that accumulate over a fight, plus an active jab. He has an odd habit of dropping his hands and rushing in that the analyst calls a real knockout risk. His takedowns are decent rather than good, often not driven in deep enough, but a cage push alone is framed as a viable backup plan, and once on top he is expected to control the rest of the round.