Lucas Rocha

states he feels good about the pick; hedge is only on method

Good-volume striker with solid combinations who needs the fight to stay standing, since his ground game is mostly a defensive skill for escaping bad spots rather than a finishing tool, and his takedown defense is a real liability against a dedicated grappler.

He builds the case that Nicoll's control game plan gets it done, then is asked directly whether he 'feel[s] confident in that' knowing Nicoll's striking is poor and the fight starts standing -- and answers no.

Much the better striker here, with good volume, combinations and strong body work. Good grappler with shaky takedown defense but an excellent ability to regain his feet and scrap out of trouble -- he has previously survived a dominated opening round before turning it around and finishing the fight.

He says Carpenter can replicate a prior opponent's successful mat gameplan against Rocha and stay safe for three rounds or finish; no hedge on the win itself, only a passing note the striking could be close.

Contender-Series winner last season, undefeated record. A good-to-very-good striker who works the body well, but someone who regularly finds himself in bad spots on the mat; his jiu-jitsu is what gets him back to his feet rather than a dominant top game, and his takedown defense is a real question mark.