Marcus Buchecha

explicitly contrarian pick against public opinion, but a clear fade mechanism is given

Heavyweight newcomer whom the public rates low, with a very durable chin plus a strong, relentless grappling base. Keeps shooting takedowns rather than abandoning them, and once on top uses heavy pressure, ground strikes, good transitions, and a deep submission arsenal.

unhedged underdog pick; predicts the market will be seen as having 'overcorrected on that line'

A decent, durable striker whose game plan is built to get to the mat: decent kicks and a durable chin let him survive exchanges long enough to shoot. Once there, he is a solid grappler with a good double leg he keeps shooting, good top pressure, heavy ground-and-pound, full transitions and a good submission arsenal. His UFC debut loss (to a quality heavyweight) is read as more credit than discredit, and this fight is called competitive despite the odds.

picks Buchecha as better fighter but 'probably wins' concedes a real cage-push path to Buday

A UFC debutant with a heavy grappling background and only six pro MMA fights. His striking is decent and unrefined, but his durability lets him eat punishment while closing distance, and his grappling is clearly the gift: a reliable double-leg entry, strong top pressure with smooth transitions between advantageous positions, heavy ground-and-pound rare for a jiu-jitsu specialist, and a deep submission arsenal.