Michael Morales

Acknowledges a real path for Morales 'if this fight stays' in his favor, but repeatedly and strongly reinforces the pick, saying he 'would be absolutely surprised' were Morales to outgrapple Brady.

A physically imposing striker with a clear edge standing: hard-hitting, built around a well-worked jab, though his own defense is a bit lax and the analyst thinks throwing kicks specifically against this opponent is risky (a kick-catcher who can convert a caught kick into a takedown). He is durable. His grappling is solid in its own right -- pretty good takedown defense, genuinely hard to control, good ground-and-pound, picks his shots well, good top control -- enough, in the analyst's words, to hold his own against most of the division, though not against this particular opponent.

Names Morales as the pick but immediately says the betting value is on Burns and that he won't actually wager on this fight unless he can get a better number on Burns, calling the matchup close.

A good, fight-altering striker who works his jab and lands damaging kicks, able to change a fight in an instant; his own striking defense is not his best trait, but he is so durable that getting hit does not seem to affect him. His grappling is good too -- strong control, extremely difficult to hold down, and a nasty, well-placed ground-and-pound game once he is on top.

He names Morales as the pick but hedges hard on the win itself, twice saying out loud how close he thinks this is and that Magny could win, and finishes by saying he personally won't wager on it -- stacked qualifiers on the outcome, not just on price.

A 16-0, 25-year-old prospect he calls talented but at times questionable in his in-fight decisions. He is a good striker with plenty of power, a good jab and heavy kicks, yet his defensive striking habits are poor by choice rather than inability, which has repeatedly made his UFC bouts tighter than the matchup should allow. His wrestling is good, with hard-to-hold-down control and heavy ground-and-pound if he lets it go, and the analyst's stated concern is that he may choose to stand and jab with a longer opponent instead of using that wrestling edge.

Uses his own word twice, saying he has to lean toward Morales and then that he is leaning Morales, backed by a stated wrestling advantage and an explicit improving-prospect claim, but he also calls the striking close and leans partly on Matthews's career-long inconsistency rather than a dominant skill gap.

An undefeated prospect the analyst is still not fully sold on -- he has looked good in wins but also shown lapses expected to be cleaner for a prospect carried as this big a favorite. Good striking with real power, a working jab and good kicks, though he keeps his hands low and is very hittable; he is durable (never dropped or finished) despite that habit. His wrestling, which the analyst says is probably what got him signed in the first place, is good overall -- strong control, precise and heavy ground-and-pound rather than high volume, and he is hard to hold down himself, able to scramble to a sweep or back to his feet.

The whole pick rests on an explicit, admitted assumption that Morales used his layoff to fix his flaws -- he says he will 'assume' this rather than confirm it -- which is a hedge on the win itself, apart from the separate price discussion about his shortened odds.

An undefeated, heavy-handed striker who finishes a lot of opponents behind his jab and kicks, but is marked down for carrying his hands low, so he eats plenty of return fire even as he lands his own. He also brings a solid wrestling and ground-strike game, on display during his Contender Series outing, including a strong top-control mat return. The analyst feels that despite the zero losses he still 'hasn't quite delivered', and he is returning after roughly a year on the sidelines.