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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator
Oban Elliott
Welterweight · “The Welsh Gangster”

Oban Elliott

3-3-0
Volume Machine Defensive Striker
6'0"Height
72"Reach
OrthodoxStance
28Age
1KO wins
0Sub wins
33.3%Finish rate
11:00Avg fight

Skill profile

Rated 0–100 · where 138 MMA has read him, his grades and tags set each axis and the stats only nudge inside his band · stats alone where he is silent · the rim is reserved for specialists
Striking — Average, rated 46 of 100 · 138 MMA: striking decent · Jul 2026 · stats read 52 → nudged +5 inside the band · tag pace: high volume (+2) · claims striking volume +2, striking technique -2, pressure +2 (+0) Accuracy — Average, rated 65 of 100 · claims striking technique -2 (-4) Striking D — Above avg, rated 80 of 100 · claims head movement +1, pressure resistance -1 (+0) Durability — Below avg, rated 33 of 100 · 138 MMA read him durable · Jul 2026, before his knockout loss on 2026-08-01 — stats lead, that read only steps · claims chin +2, pressure resistance -1 (+3) Wrestling — Average, rated 54 of 100 · 138 MMA: wrestling good · Jul 2024 · stats read 37 → nudged -7 inside the band · claims td offense +2 (+4) TD Defense — Above avg, rated 75 of 100 · 138 MMA tag td defense: good · Jun 2025 · stats read 25 → nudged -3 inside the band · claims td defense +2 (+4) Grappling — Average, rated 46 of 100 · 138 MMA: grappling good · Jul 2026 · stats read 23 → nudged -11 inside the band · claims sub offense -1, ground and pound +1 (-1) Control — Average, rated 68 of 100 · claims ground and pound +1 (+2) Striking Accuracy Striking D Durability Wrestling TD Defense Grappling Control
striking decent
7 analyst reads graded this phase
  • decent UFC Fight Night Medic vs Rodriguez Full Card Preview & Predictions · July 26, 2026 watch ↗
  • decent UFC 325 Analysis, Breakdown, & Predictions · January 25, 2026 watch ↗
  • decent UFC Fight Night Ulberg vs Reyes Full Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · September 23, 2025 watch ↗
  • decent UFC Fight Night: Hill vs Rountree Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · June 17, 2025 watch ↗
  • decent UFC 309 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · November 12, 2024 watch ↗
  • decent UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · July 23, 2024 watch ↗
  • decent UFC 298 Full Card Analysis, Breakdown, & Prediction · February 13, 2024 watch ↗
grappling good
5 analyst reads graded this phase
  • good UFC Fight Night Medic vs Rodriguez Full Card Preview & Predictions · July 26, 2026 watch ↗
  • good UFC 325 Analysis, Breakdown, & Predictions · January 25, 2026 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Ulberg vs Reyes Full Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · September 23, 2025 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night: Hill vs Rountree Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · June 17, 2025 watch ↗
  • good UFC 309 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · November 12, 2024 watch ↗
wrestling good
2 analyst reads graded this phase
  • good UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · July 23, 2024 watch ↗
  • good UFC 298 Full Card Analysis, Breakdown, & Prediction · February 13, 2024 watch ↗
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read
striking decent 7 reads
grappling good 5 reads
wrestling good 2 reads
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read

138 MMA anchors Striking, Wrestling, TD Defense, Grappling · his tags and claims adjust Accuracy, Striking D, Durability, Control.

Built on 66 minutes of tracked cage time across 6 statted fights — every axis is held down until there is more tape, so read this as a sketch rather than a verdict.

Volume Machine 138 MMA · Jan 2026 tags pace: high volume
Defensive Striker above avg striking d — rates 80 of 100 · claims head movement +1, pressure resistance -1 (+0)
Career rates — the raw numbers behind the chart
Sig. strikes landed / min3.56
Sig. strikes absorbed / min2.26
Striking accuracy49.3%
Striking defense59.6%
Knockdowns / 15 min0.23
Takedowns / 15 min0.91
Takedown accuracy33.3%
Takedown defense52.4%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.0
Control time25.6%
Record vs .500+ opponents0-1

Insider info

7 analyst reads · 138 MMA · our paraphrase, never his words
vs Michael Oliveira lean UFC Fight Night Medic vs Rodriguez Full Card Preview & Predictions · July 26, 2026
strikingdecent grapplinggood wrestlinggood

Says plainly 'I don't feel great about' the pick because so little is known about Oliveira. Advises viewers who would bet heavily on Oliveira to consider sitting this one out.

Elliott is a decent, high-volume striker who throws basic combinations behind a durable chin and a steady pace, which the analyst says can be a real problem for a debuting opponent. His grappling is called pretty good, built around sneaking takedowns underneath an opponent's strikes and following with solid ground-and-pound; his own takedown defense is called decent. He is not picked to win, but the analyst treats his volume and durability as a live threat to an unproven debutant.

Strengthhigh volume with basic, effective combinations
Strengthdurable
Strengthgood takedown entries underneath strikes
Strengtheffective once he's on top
chin · durable
vs Jonathan Micallef coinflip UFC 325 Analysis, Breakdown, & Predictions · January 25, 2026 · 1 read since
strikingdecent grapplinggood wrestlinggood

Explicit hedge on the outcome itself: he calls the fight close and competitive and says it's one he could see go to either man, before the bare closing pick.

A decent striker with a lot of volume and real durability, throwing basic but effective combinations without overreaching. A good grappler with good takedown entries hidden under his strikes, strong ground-and-pound as soon as he gets on top, and decent takedown defense. His pace and heart are called the thing that makes him a tough fight for anybody.

Strengthhigh-volume, durable striker
Strengtheffective basic combinations
Strengthgood takedown entries under strikes
Strengthgood ground-and-pound
Strengthrelentless pace / heart
chin · durablepace · high volume
vs Jonathan Micallef clear UFC Fight Night Ulberg vs Reyes Full Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · September 23, 2025 · 2 reads since
strikingdecent grapplinggood wrestlinggood

A one-directional case (cleaner striker, comparable grappling, underdog price called strange) with no conceded path for Elliott beyond general durability; the closing hedge is his standard generic sign-off, not an analytical concession.

A decent striker whose high pace makes him look better than he may be; durable and relentless, surviving a brutal Contender Series beating and taking over. He has tons of volume with basic combinations and a good grappling game built on takedowns entered under his own strikes, plus decent takedown defense.

Strengthhigh pace and volume with basic combinations
Strengthdurable, survives heavy damage and keeps coming
Strengthgood grappling, takedowns entered under his own strikes
chin · durable
vs Seokhyeon Ko lean UFC Fight Night: Hill vs Rountree Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · June 17, 2025 · 3 reads since
strikingdecent grapplinggood wrestlinggood

Explicitly names this a tight, fun matchup and expects Ko to look the flashier, cleaner striker, but lands on Elliott's pace and grit for the nod.

A decent, unpretty striker who wins with volume, basic combinations, pace, heart and sheer toughness - the analyst calls him 'tough as nails' and notes he once survived a beating on the Contender Series to still win. His grappling is good: smart takedown entries timed under an opponent's offense, a reliable ability to stop takedowns himself, and heavy ground strikes once on top. Picked to outgrind the cleaner striker.

Strengthvolume, basic combinations, constant pace
Strengthexceptional toughness/durability
Strengthsmart takedown entries under an opponent's strikes
Strengthgood takedown defense
Strengthheavy ground-and-pound on top
chin · durablepace · high volumetd defense · good
vs Bassil Hafez clear UFC 309 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · November 12, 2024 · 4 reads since
strikingdecent grapplinggood wrestlinggood

Grants Hafez the technical edge but still commits to Elliott, crediting his gas, grit and toughness as the deciding factors; the only qualifier left open is the scorecard route, not the win itself.

Rated behind Hafez as a pure striker -- only decent there -- yet compensates with heart, durability and a volume-heavy pace that grinds opponents down. His grappling is solid: real takedown defense, the ability to duck strikes into his own takedowns, and effective ground-and-pound once the fight is down. The analyst picks him to out-work the more technical man rather than out-strike him.

Strengthdurable, absorbs volume
Strengthhigh output/pace
Strengthsolid takedown defense
Strengthcan duck strikes into his own takedowns
Strengthgood ground-and-pound
Weaknessnot the technically better striker
Weaknessgets backed up
chin · durablepace · high volumetd defense · good
vs Preston Parsons clear UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · July 23, 2024 · 5 reads since
strikingdecent wrestlinggood

picks Parsons by submission outright ('some form of a choke'); the only hedge is on the exact method, not on the winner.

A heart-driven wrestler-striker who sets up his takedowns underneath an opponent's own strikes, then looks to finish from top position. He is credited with as much durability and will as technical polish, having come back from a battering on the Contender Series to win.

Strengthgood wrestler, enters takedowns underneath the opponent's strikes
Strengthgood ground-and-pound from top
Strengthdecent volume striking
Strengthexceptional durability and heart
Weaknessgets backed up on the feet
Weaknessgrappling arsenal less varied than Parsons's once taken down himself
chin · durable
vs Val Woodburn coinflip UFC 298 Full Card Analysis, Breakdown, & Prediction · February 13, 2024 · 6 reads since
strikingdecent wrestlinggood

He states outright that he has no confidence in this fight whatsoever and separately calls it a betting pass, which under the confidence-bar rules is a direct hedge on the win itself, not just on price or method.

Elliott's calling card is toughness: he has come back from being badly hurt mid-fight before, and the analyst calls him durable and all heart. His striking is more about volume and durability than sharpness, and he can be backed up. He also has a real wrestling dimension, timing takedown entries off an opponent's own strikes and following up with ground and pound. The analyst expects his pressure and durability to wear Woodburn down over a decision.

Strengthvery durable, fights through adversity
Strengthtakedown entries timed off an opponent's strikes
Strengthgood ground and pound
Weaknessstriking is mostly volume/durability rather than sharp technique
Weaknesscan be backed up
chin · durable

Striking trend

Sig. strikes/min, last 6 fights · green = win
February 17, 2024 vs Val Woodburn — 4.67/min (W) Feb '24 July 27, 2024 vs Preston Parsons — 2.93/min (W) Jul '24 November 16, 2024 vs Bassil Hafez — 6.09/min (W) Nov '24 June 21, 2025 vs Seokhyeon Ko — 0.67/min (L) Jun '25 January 31, 2026 vs Jonathan Micallef — 4.7/min (L) Jan '26 August 1, 2026 vs Michael Oliveira — 3.3/min (L) — only 1.8 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Aug '26

Fight history

6 UFC bouts · newest first · opponent records as of fight night
L Michael Oliveira 0-0 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 1:49 — UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez · August 1, 2026
6/11Sig. strikes
14/25Absorbed
0/1Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Jonathan Micallef 1-0 walk-in Submission · R2 3:31 — UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · January 31, 2026
40/82Sig. strikes
19/59Absorbed
0/2Takedowns
1:11Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Seokhyeon Ko 0-0 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · June 21, 2025
10/31Sig. strikes
33/61Absorbed
0/2Takedowns
1:44Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Bassil Hafez 1-1 walk-in KO/TKO · R3 0:40 — UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · November 16, 2024
65/117Sig. strikes
24/70Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:05Control
1Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Preston Parsons 2-2 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · July 27, 2024
44/125Sig. strikes
36/93Absorbed
1/2Takedowns
4:56Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Val Woodburn 0-1 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · February 17, 2024
70/111Sig. strikes
23/61Absorbed
3/5Takedowns
8:58Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts

Walk-in records count UFC bouts in this database. For the pre-UFC career, see the record breakdown below or the Tapology button up top.

Record breakdown

UFC bouts in this database
3-3-0UFC record

Wins by method

KO/TKO 1
Submission 0
Decision 2
Other 0

Losses by method

KO/TKO 1
Submission 1
Decision 1
Other 0

Fights by organization

UFC 6

Showing UFC fights only — this fighter's full pre-UFC career hasn't been synced yet. It will fill in as the weekly career backfill reaches them.

Division context

vs. 189 qualified Welterweight fighters · tick = division mean
Striking volume /min 3.6 avg 3.4
Strikes absorbed /min 2.3 avg 3.3
Striking accuracy 49.3% avg 45.1%
Striking defense 59.6% avg 55.2%
Takedowns /15 min 0.9 avg 1.5
Takedown accuracy 33.3% avg 40.2%
Takedown defense 52.4% avg 62.6%
Sub attempts /15 min 0.0 avg 0.6
Control time 25.6% avg 21.5%
Finish rate 33.3% avg 53.9%

Headshot of Oban Elliott by UFC · Official UFC athlete photo (copyright UFC; not freely licensed) · Wikimedia Commons · flattened onto dark background, cropped/resized