Pedro Falcao

He names Henry but spends a full passage urging viewers not to wager on this one, framing it as for entertainment rather than a real recommendation. Per the stay-away-plus-idiom rule that caps conviction, this lands at coinflip, reinforced by his own description of Henry as streaky and tough to favor outright.

A fighter returning from a long absence following a short-notice bout he didn't come away with. He's developing his boxing with basic combinations meant to pin opponents against the fence, where his real path is good grappling: pressuring into takedowns, controlling position, and a tendency to take the back, especially right as an opponent stands up off the fence, finishing with decent ground-and-pound to grind out rounds. He says Falcao did not look sharp last time out and gives no real reason to think he's dramatically improved since.