Shaqueme Rock

A soft lean based on a modest striking and durability edge, offered without much conviction and flagged as a fight that may not even happen given the opponent's cancellation history.

Rock lives on his kicks, throwing a deep and varied arsenal to every level and using them to control range from the outside. On the mat he's more opportunistic than dominant — he opens up takedown chances off his striking and doesn't give up after a failed shot, and once he's on top he's more of a back-hunter than a mount-and-smother guy, looking for the rear-naked choke.

Same lean as the Aliev row: the pick is built from first-person hedged statements and an openly speculative argument about the Qatar crowd and the referee. Rock is awarded the better striking and a good grappling grade, and nothing in the argument closes off his own routes.

Rock is rated the better striker of the pair even though striking is not his first discipline: he manages distance well and kicks to every level, with an unusually varied set of kicks and strong deep ones. His pattern is to strike his way in, grab the body and refuse to let go of the takedown attempt, following an opponent along the fence or in open space until he gets him down. On the mat he works to improve position and tends to hunt the back for a rear-naked choke. The analyst grants him the edge on the feet but expects the fight to land on the floor, where he thinks Aliev will control him for a decision. Rock is a first-time UFC fighter in a country the analyst assumes is new to him, and the analyst suspects the crowd will not be his.