Tecia Pennington

picks Pennington but adds a real caveat about risk: he is not calling her a lock, and flags a real chance she gets dropped

Graded a good striker who presses forward with a bit more output than her opponent here, built around a blitz-and-exit approach, though limited one-shot power means she can be caught if her timing is off on entry. She is durable. On the ground the analyst gives her the edge, citing a sound wrestling base both offensively and defensively plus strong top-position pressure, while noting she has leaned more toward striking lately and it's unclear if she'll use the wrestling advantage.

Calls the pick easy, says he feels very good, expects a clear decision for Pennington.

A simple, meat-and-potatoes volume striker who wears opponents down with forward pressure and output rather than technical flash. Durable on the feet, with solid grappling built on very good takedown defense and the ability to mix in her own takedowns with top pressure.

The analyst commits to Pennington but labels it a low-confidence call twice in his own words, resting mainly on the theory that a fighter's first fight back from childbirth tends to be the rough one and this is Esparza's first since -- balanced against his own acknowledgement that Esparza's announced retirement is its own red flag. A named winner with a real but thin mechanism, not a flat 50/50, lands this at lean rather than coinflip.

Judged the probable better pure striker of the two, with good forward pressure, volume and durability, plus a wrestling package of good takedown defense, takedowns and top pressure. The analyst leans toward her mainly because her own tougher comeback fight (after childbirth) is already behind her, while the opponent is about to face hers.

His own words at the pick: 'very little confidence.' He explicitly says that absent Torres' two-year layoff he would favor her instead, making the layoff -- not a skill gap -- the stated deciding factor.

Solid wrestler with very good takedown defense, good offensive takedowns, and very good top pressure that lets her grind opponents down. Decent, durable striker who comes forward with volume and absorbs return fire, but she is coming off a two-year layoff and the analyst explicitly bases her read on her pre-layoff form, flagging that it could be better or worse now.