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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Bogdan Guskov vs. Robert Whittaker

UFC 4-2-1 vs. 18-7-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
4-2-1
UFC record
18-7-0
Light Heavyweight
Division (benchmark)
Middleweight
34
AgeΔ 1 yrs
35
6'3"
HeightΔ 3"
6'0"
76"
ReachΔ 3"
73"
Orthodox3-2-1 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox10-3 vs orthodox fighters
3.4
Layoff (months)Δ 0.4 mo
3.8
LDWWW
Last 5 (newest first)
WLLWW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Bogdan Guskov is a submission threat — 0.68 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.28 Light Heavyweight norm.
Bogdan Guskov carries real power — 0.91 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.40 Light Heavyweight norm.
Robert Whittaker carries real power — 0.53 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.32 Middleweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Bogdan Guskov

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 42
Tier 3 — regional circuit 142

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.14 · 4 tier-1/2 wins · 18 finish wins over 23 documented bouts

In the UFC: 2-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.7 wins over .500

Robert Whittaker

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 187
Tier 3 — regional circuit 92

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.3 · 18 tier-1/2 wins · 16 finish wins over 36 documented bouts

In the UFC: 16-7 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +4.1 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

2383.60/min · norm 3.48
Sig. strikes landed
14894.41/min · norm 3.23
2323.50/min · norm 3.35
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
11483.40/min · norm 3.20
56.8%norm 48.45%
Striking accuracy
43.4%norm 47.4%
46.5%norm 52.75%
Striking defense
59.2%norm 53.8%
40.91/15 · norm 0.40
Knockdowns
120.53/15 · norm 0.32

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Bogdan Guskov

Distance 72.3% (norm 80.5%) · Clinch 2.9% (norm 8.8%) · Ground 24.8% (norm 10.6%)

Robert Whittaker

Distance 90.5% (norm 79.5%) · Clinch 4.9% (norm 9.0%) · Ground 4.6% (norm 10.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Bogdan Guskov

Head 83.5% (norm 78.5%) · Body 3.3% (norm 11.8%) · Legs 13.1% (norm 9.7%)

Robert Whittaker

Head 83.6% (norm 78.0%) · Body 7.3% (norm 13.4%) · Legs 9.1% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Guskov L/AAccLight Heavyweight med Whittaker L/AAccMiddleweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 156 / 303 51.5% 41.5% 1288 / 3106 41.5% 40.5%
In the clinch 11 / 12 too few to rate 70.8% 100 / 167 59.9% 70.7%
On the ground 71 / 104 68.3% 72.9% 101 / 159 63.5% 69.4%
BY TARGET
To the head 177 / 350 50.6% 39.2% 1069 / 2869 37.3% 38.8%
To the body 12 / 14 too few to rate 72.0% 153 / 250 61.2% 71.6%
To the legs 49 / 55 89.1% 82.1% 267 / 313 85.3% 83.3%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Light Heavyweight: 94 fighters · Middleweight: 178 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Guskov L/AOpp accLight Heavyweight med vs Whittaker L/AOpp accMiddleweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 187 / 376 49.7% 40.6% 965 / 2563 37.7% 39.5%
In the clinch 12 / 14 too few to rate 68.8% 120 / 172 69.8% 70.4%
On the ground 33 / 44 75.0% 70.4% 63 / 77 81.8% 69.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 135 / 300 45.0% 37.7% 645 / 2110 30.6% 37.7%
To the body 48 / 77 62.3% 72.9% 234 / 378 61.9% 71.3%
To the legs 49 / 57 86.0% 83.1% 269 / 324 83.0% 82.0%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
0— acc · 0.00/15 · norm 0.87
Takedowns landed
1638.1% acc · 0.71/15 · norm 1.35
654.5% def · norm 66.7%
Takedowns stopped
7680.0% def · norm 63.3%
6:149.4% of cage time · norm 17.1%
Control time
26:397.9% of cage time · norm 19.4%
18:104:06 per 15 · norm 2:50
Time under control lower is better
36:231:36 per 15 · norm 2:58
30.68/15 · norm 0.28
Submission attempts
00.00/15 · norm 0.45

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Whittaker has more cage time on record.