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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Bryce Mitchell vs. Jean Silva

UFC 10-3-0 vs. 7-1-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
10-3-0
UFC record
7-1-0
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Featherweight
32
AgeΔ 3 yrs
29
5'10"
HeightΔ 3"
5'7"
70"
ReachΔ 1"
69"
Southpaw8-3 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox5-0 vs southpaws
5
Layoff (months)Δ 3.3 mo
1.7
WWLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
WWLWW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Jean Silva has owned southpaws — 5-0 in the UFC (2-1 vs everyone else), and Bryce Mitchell is a southpaw.
Jean Silva carries real power — 1.23 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.28 Featherweight norm.
Bryce Mitchell owns the mat — in control 55% of cage time, vs a 16% Featherweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Bryce Mitchell

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 103
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 10
Tier 3 — regional circuit 80

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.54 · 11 tier-1/2 wins · 11 finish wins over 22 documented bouts

In the UFC: 5-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.4 wins over .500

Jean Silva

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 81
Tier 3 — regional circuit 102

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.57 · 8 tier-1/2 wins · 16 finish wins over 21 documented bouts

In the UFC: 5-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.2 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

3372.19/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
3134.29/min · norm 3.52
2321.51/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
3064.20/min · norm 3.54
59.0%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
52.7%norm 44.8%
58.9%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
54.8%norm 54.8%
10.10/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
61.23/15 · norm 0.28

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Bryce Mitchell

Distance 67.3% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 7.0% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 25.7% (norm 6.4%)

Jean Silva

Distance 88.4% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 8.1% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 3.5% (norm 6.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Bryce Mitchell

Head 64.4% (norm 77.5%) · Body 26.3% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 9.3% (norm 7.9%)

Jean Silva

Head 77.6% (norm 77.5%) · Body 18.2% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 4.2% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Mitchell L/AAccFeatherweight med Silva L/AAccFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 188 / 384 49.0% 40.7% 261 / 525 49.7% 40.7%
In the clinch 30 / 40 75.0% 70.5% 36 / 48 75.0% 70.5%
On the ground 119 / 147 81.0% 69.1% 16 / 21 too few to rate 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 192 / 368 52.2% 37.2% 205 / 461 44.5% 37.2%
To the body 100 / 150 66.7% 68.4% 85 / 108 78.7% 68.4%
To the legs 45 / 53 84.9% 80.7% 23 / 25 92.0% 80.7%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Featherweight: 129 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Mitchell L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Silva L/AOpp accFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 167 / 471 35.5% 39.3% 244 / 574 42.5% 39.3%
In the clinch 12 / 22 too few to rate 70.3% 19 / 32 59.4% 70.3%
On the ground 53 / 72 73.6% 69.5% 43 / 71 60.6% 69.5%
BY TARGET
To the head 145 / 434 33.4% 35.9% 172 / 491 35.0% 35.9%
To the body 57 / 95 60.0% 68.1% 57 / 98 58.2% 68.1%
To the legs 30 / 36 83.3% 81.1% 77 / 88 87.5% 81.1%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
3236.4% acc · 3.12/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
666.7% acc · 1.23/15 · norm 1.17
538.5% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
2678.8% def · norm 61.5%
84:3755.0% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
2:544.0% of cage time · norm 16.5%
23:302:17 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
7:291:32 per 15 · norm 3:11
131.27/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
40.82/15 · norm 0.44

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Mitchell has more cage time on record.