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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Danny Castillo vs. Michael Johnson

UFC 7-7-0 vs. 16-16-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
7-7-0
UFC record
16-16-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
47
AgeΔ 7 yrs
40
5'9"
HeightΔ 1"
5'10"
71"
ReachΔ 2"
73"
Orthodox1-3 vs southpaws
Stance
Southpaw10-11 vs orthodox fighters
130.5
Layoff (months)Δ 122.5 mo
8
LLLLW
Last 5 (newest first)
LWWWL

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Michael Johnson carries real power — 0.53 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.23 Lightweight norm.
Danny Castillo hunts takedowns — 2.68 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.34 Lightweight norm.
Danny Castillo owns the mat — in control 38% of cage time, vs a 19% Lightweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Danny Castillo

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 77
Tier 3 — regional circuit 103

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.64 · 7 tier-1/2 wins · 10 finish wins over 27 documented bouts

In the UFC: 4-7 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.1 wins over .500

Michael Johnson

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 1616
Tier 3 — regional circuit 84

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.54 · 16 tier-1/2 wins · 12 finish wins over 44 documented bouts

In the UFC: 11-11 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.3 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

4712.72/min · norm 3.43
Sig. strikes landed
15684.27/min · norm 3.43
3692.13/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
13863.78/min · norm 3.37
43.4%norm 43.7%
Striking accuracy
39.6%norm 43.7%
61.5%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
58.8%norm 56.3%
20.17/15 · norm 0.23
Knockdowns
130.53/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Danny Castillo

Distance 72.6% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 7.7% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 19.6% (norm 8.0%)

Michael Johnson

Distance 93.5% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 4.0% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 2.5% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Danny Castillo

Head 82.4% (norm 78.1%) · Body 8.6% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 9.0% (norm 8.0%)

Michael Johnson

Head 70.1% (norm 78.1%) · Body 21.9% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 8.0% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Castillo L/AAccLightweight med Johnson L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 267 / 788 33.9% 38.4% 1405 / 3703 37.9% 38.4%
In the clinch 72 / 84 85.7% 67.5% 101 / 157 64.3% 67.5%
On the ground 132 / 213 62.0% 69.1% 62 / 101 61.4% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 312 / 894 34.9% 35.3% 829 / 2776 29.9% 35.3%
To the body 70 / 93 75.3% 69.2% 496 / 869 57.1% 69.2%
To the legs 89 / 98 90.8% 81.8% 243 / 316 76.9% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 205 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Castillo L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Johnson L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 306 / 866 35.3% 38.9% 1025 / 2854 35.9% 38.9%
In the clinch 32 / 55 58.2% 68.6% 96 / 140 68.6% 68.6%
On the ground 31 / 38 81.6% 68.2% 265 / 373 71.0% 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 185 / 716 25.8% 35.2% 923 / 2702 34.2% 35.2%
To the body 90 / 138 65.2% 68.2% 231 / 379 60.9% 68.2%
To the legs 94 / 105 89.5% 81.5% 232 / 286 81.1% 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
3134.8% acc · 2.68/15 · norm 1.34
Takedowns landed
1438.9% acc · 0.57/15 · norm 1.34
2060.6% def · norm 63.2%
Takedowns stopped
8681.1% def · norm 63.2%
65:0337.5% of cage time · norm 19.0%
Control time
28:497.9% of cage time · norm 19.0%
20:211:45 per 15 · norm 2:50
Time under control lower is better
61:252:30 per 15 · norm 2:50
30.26/15 · norm 0.48
Submission attempts
10.04/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Johnson has more cage time on record.