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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Diego Brandao vs. Daniel Pineda

UFC 6-4-0 vs. 5-8-0 (1 NC)

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
6-4-0
UFC record
5-8-0 (1 NC)
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Featherweight
39
AgeΔ 2 yrs
41
5'7"
HeightΔ 0"
5'7"
64"
ReachΔ 5"
69"
Orthodox5-1 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox5-6 vs orthodox fighters
130.1
Layoff (months)Δ 105.6 mo
24.5
LWWLL
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLWNC

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Diego Brandao has owned orthodox fighters — 5-1 in the UFC (1-3 vs everyone else), and Daniel Pineda is orthodox.
Daniel Pineda is a submission threat — 1.54 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.44 Featherweight norm.
Diego Brandao hunts takedowns — 3.21 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.17 Featherweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Diego Brandao

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 75
Tier 3 — regional circuit 2316

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.3 · 7 tier-1/2 wins · 23 finish wins over 51 documented bouts

In the UFC: 3-4 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.1 wins over .500

Daniel Pineda

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 612
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 81
Tier 3 — regional circuit 144

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.71 · 14 tier-1/2 wins · 28 finish wins over 47 documented bouts

In the UFC: 2-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.6 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

2332.94/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
3612.85/min · norm 3.52
2683.38/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
4123.26/min · norm 3.54
47.9%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
49.6%norm 44.8%
62.5%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
45.8%norm 54.8%
30.57/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
20.24/15 · norm 0.28

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Diego Brandao

Distance 76.3% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 7.0% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 16.7% (norm 6.4%)

Daniel Pineda

Distance 73.5% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 4.3% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 22.3% (norm 6.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Diego Brandao

Head 77.8% (norm 77.5%) · Body 14.4% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 7.8% (norm 7.9%)

Daniel Pineda

Head 78.4% (norm 77.5%) · Body 10.9% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 10.7% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Brandao L/AAccFeatherweight med Pineda L/AAccFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 162 / 371 43.7% 40.7% 213 / 535 39.8% 40.7%
In the clinch 26 / 34 76.5% 70.5% 23 / 31 74.2% 70.5%
On the ground 45 / 81 55.6% 69.1% 125 / 162 77.2% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 159 / 378 42.1% 37.2% 242 / 571 42.4% 37.2%
To the body 48 / 70 68.6% 68.4% 54 / 79 68.4% 68.4%
To the legs 26 / 38 68.4% 80.7% 65 / 78 83.3% 80.7%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Featherweight: 129 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Brandao L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Pineda L/AOpp accFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 160 / 533 30.0% 39.3% 307 / 605 50.7% 39.3%
In the clinch 34 / 51 66.7% 70.3% 51 / 69 73.9% 70.3%
On the ground 74 / 130 56.9% 69.5% 54 / 86 62.8% 69.5%
BY TARGET
To the head 185 / 604 30.6% 35.9% 267 / 577 46.3% 35.9%
To the body 61 / 85 71.8% 68.1% 104 / 132 78.8% 68.1%
To the legs 22 / 25 88.0% 81.1% 41 / 51 80.4% 81.1%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
1768.0% acc · 3.21/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
1224.0% acc · 1.42/15 · norm 1.17
2180.8% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
2954.7% def · norm 61.5%
19:4324.8% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
32:4425.9% of cage time · norm 16.5%
16:373:08 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
40:244:47 per 15 · norm 3:11
30.57/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
131.54/15 · norm 0.44

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Pineda has more cage time on record.