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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Fernando Bruno vs. Gray Maynard

UFC 0-2-0 vs. 11-7-1 (1 NC)

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
0-2-0
UFC record
11-7-1 (1 NC)
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
44
AgeΔ 3 yrs
47
5'6"
HeightΔ 3"
5'9"
—
Reach
70"
—0-2 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox
123.9
Layoff (months)Δ 27 mo
96.9
LL
Last 5 (newest first)
LWLWL

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Gray Maynard hunts takedowns — 2.91 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.34 Lightweight norm.
Fernando Bruno hunts takedowns — 2.02 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.17 Featherweight norm.
Fernando Bruno owns the mat — in control 27% of cage time, vs a 16% Featherweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Fernando Bruno

Full career not yet synced for Fernando Bruno — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.0 wins over .500

Gray Maynard

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 117
Tier 3 — regional circuit 20

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.87 · 11 tier-1/2 wins · 2 finish wins over 22 documented bouts

In the UFC: 8-6 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.9 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

521.75/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
4931.92/min · norm 3.43
531.78/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
6792.64/min · norm 3.37
39.1%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
32.5%norm 43.7%
48.0%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
66.7%norm 56.3%
00.00/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
60.35/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Fernando Bruno

Distance 77.4% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 22.6% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 0.0% (norm 6.4%)

Gray Maynard

Distance 80.2% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 8.1% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 11.7% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Fernando Bruno

Head 82.7% (norm 77.5%) · Body 15.8% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 1.5% (norm 7.9%)

Gray Maynard

Head 88.4% (norm 78.1%) · Body 9.5% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 2.0% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Bruno L/AAccFeatherweight med Maynard L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 39 / 103 37.9% 40.7% 320 / 1215 26.3% 38.4%
In the clinch 13 / 30 43.3% 70.5% 73 / 123 59.3% 67.5%
On the ground 0 / 0 too few to rate 69.1% 100 / 177 56.5% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 40 / 110 36.4% 37.2% 371 / 1340 27.7% 35.3%
To the body 11 / 21 too few to rate 68.4% 100 / 144 69.4% 69.2%
To the legs 1 / 2 too few to rate 80.7% 22 / 31 71.0% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Bruno L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Maynard L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 26 / 60 43.3% 39.3% 509 / 1768 28.8% 38.9%
In the clinch 14 / 24 too few to rate 70.3% 101 / 174 58.0% 68.6%
On the ground 13 / 18 too few to rate 69.5% 69 / 95 72.6% 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 24 / 70 34.3% 35.9% 466 / 1679 27.8% 35.2%
To the body 16 / 17 too few to rate 68.1% 117 / 237 49.4% 68.2%
To the legs 13 / 15 too few to rate 81.1% 96 / 121 79.3% 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
422.2% acc · 2.02/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
5047.6% acc · 2.91/15 · norm 1.34
956.3% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
5281.3% def · norm 63.2%
8:0327.0% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
74:3929.0% of cage time · norm 19.0%
13:216:43 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
17:521:02 per 15 · norm 2:50
10.50/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
120.70/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Maynard has more cage time on record.