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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Godofredo Pepey vs. Felipe Arantes

UFC 5-6-0 vs. 5-6-1

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
5-6-0
UFC record
5-6-1
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Featherweight
39
AgeΔ 1 yrs
38
5'7"
HeightΔ 1"
5'8"
73"
ReachΔ 0"
73"
Orthodox5-6 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox5-5-1 vs orthodox fighters
105.2
Layoff (months)Δ 4.8 mo
100.4
LLWLW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLWW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Godofredo Pepey is a submission threat — 1.47 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.44 Featherweight norm.
Godofredo Pepey rarely shoots — 0.37 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.17 Featherweight norm.
Felipe Arantes is a submission threat — 0.73 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.44 Featherweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Godofredo Pepey

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 56
Tier 3 — regional circuit 91

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.85 · 5 tier-1/2 wins · 13 finish wins over 22 documented bouts

In the UFC: 1-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.9 wins over .500

Felipe Arantes

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 56
Tier 3 — regional circuit 134

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.61 · 5 tier-1/2 wins · 13 finish wins over 31 documented bouts

In the UFC: 1-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.5 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

1892.32/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
3422.37/min · norm 3.52
2633.23/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
3842.66/min · norm 3.54
38.2%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
45.1%norm 44.8%
47.8%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
64.1%norm 54.8%
10.18/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
10.10/15 · norm 0.28

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Godofredo Pepey

Distance 82.6% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 6.5% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 10.9% (norm 6.4%)

Felipe Arantes

Distance 79.0% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 5.9% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 15.0% (norm 6.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Godofredo Pepey

Head 84.8% (norm 77.5%) · Body 8.5% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 6.7% (norm 7.9%)

Felipe Arantes

Head 77.4% (norm 77.5%) · Body 12.8% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 9.8% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Pepey L/AAccFeatherweight med Arantes L/AAccFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 130 / 409 31.8% 40.7% 239 / 599 39.9% 40.7%
In the clinch 25 / 32 78.1% 70.5% 24 / 45 53.3% 70.5%
On the ground 34 / 54 63.0% 69.1% 79 / 114 69.3% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 135 / 420 32.1% 37.2% 219 / 587 37.3% 37.2%
To the body 27 / 42 64.3% 68.4% 61 / 97 62.9% 68.4%
To the legs 27 / 33 81.8% 80.7% 62 / 74 83.8% 80.7%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Featherweight: 129 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Pepey L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Arantes L/AOpp accFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 143 / 348 41.1% 39.3% 233 / 796 29.3% 39.3%
In the clinch 24 / 32 75.0% 70.3% 42 / 71 59.2% 70.3%
On the ground 96 / 124 77.4% 69.5% 109 / 202 54.0% 69.5%
BY TARGET
To the head 199 / 419 47.5% 35.9% 224 / 834 26.9% 35.9%
To the body 40 / 57 70.2% 68.1% 116 / 178 65.2% 68.1%
To the legs 24 / 28 85.7% 81.1% 44 / 57 77.2% 81.1%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
27.4% acc · 0.37/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
947.4% acc · 0.93/15 · norm 1.17
735.0% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
1741.5% def · norm 61.5%
11:0713.7% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
25:2917.6% of cage time · norm 16.5%
29:465:28 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
48:395:02 per 15 · norm 3:11
81.47/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
70.73/15 · norm 0.44

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Arantes has more cage time on record.