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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Jean Silva vs. Diego Lopes

UFC 7-1-0 vs. 7-3-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
7-1-0
UFC record
7-3-0
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Featherweight
29
AgeΔ 2 yrs
31
5'7"
HeightΔ 4"
5'11"
69"
ReachΔ 3"
72"
Orthodox0-1 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox4-3 vs orthodox fighters
1.7
Layoff (months)Δ 3 mo
4.7
WWLWW
Last 5 (newest first)
WLWLW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Jean Silva carries real power — 1.23 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.28 Featherweight norm.
Diego Lopes carries real power — 0.77 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.28 Featherweight norm.
Diego Lopes is a submission threat — 1.02 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.44 Featherweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Jean Silva

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 81
Tier 3 — regional circuit 102

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.57 · 8 tier-1/2 wins · 16 finish wins over 21 documented bouts

In the UFC: 5-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.2 wins over .500

Diego Lopes

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 64
Tier 3 — regional circuit 214

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.04 · 6 tier-1/2 wins · 23 finish wins over 35 documented bouts

In the UFC: 7-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +5.7 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

3134.29/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
4623.94/min · norm 3.52
3064.20/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
5484.68/min · norm 3.54
52.7%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
47.0%norm 44.8%
54.8%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
47.2%norm 54.8%
61.23/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
60.77/15 · norm 0.28

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Jean Silva

Distance 88.4% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 8.1% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 3.5% (norm 6.4%)

Diego Lopes

Distance 79.1% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 4.9% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 16.0% (norm 6.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Jean Silva

Head 77.6% (norm 77.5%) · Body 18.2% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 4.2% (norm 7.9%)

Diego Lopes

Head 80.7% (norm 77.5%) · Body 9.8% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 9.6% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Silva L/AAccFeatherweight med Lopes L/AAccFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 261 / 525 49.7% 40.7% 320 / 777 41.2% 40.7%
In the clinch 36 / 48 75.0% 70.5% 34 / 48 70.8% 70.5%
On the ground 16 / 21 too few to rate 69.1% 108 / 157 68.8% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 205 / 461 44.5% 37.2% 334 / 792 42.2% 37.2%
To the body 85 / 108 78.7% 68.4% 56 / 96 58.3% 68.4%
To the legs 23 / 25 92.0% 80.7% 72 / 94 76.6% 80.7%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Featherweight: 129 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Silva L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Lopes L/AOpp accFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 244 / 574 42.5% 39.3% 456 / 927 49.2% 39.3%
In the clinch 19 / 32 59.4% 70.3% 27 / 33 81.8% 70.3%
On the ground 43 / 71 60.6% 69.5% 65 / 78 83.3% 69.5%
BY TARGET
To the head 172 / 491 35.0% 35.9% 433 / 876 49.4% 35.9%
To the body 57 / 98 58.2% 68.1% 38 / 61 62.3% 68.1%
To the legs 77 / 88 87.5% 81.1% 77 / 101 76.2% 81.1%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
666.7% acc · 1.23/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
746.7% acc · 0.90/15 · norm 1.17
2678.8% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
2374.2% def · norm 61.5%
2:544.0% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
12:4810.9% of cage time · norm 16.5%
7:291:32 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
15:041:55 per 15 · norm 3:11
40.82/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
81.02/15 · norm 0.44

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Lopes has more cage time on record.