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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Keiichiro Nakamura vs. Ollie Schmid

UFC 1-0-0 vs. 0-1-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
1-0-0
UFC record
0-1-0
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Featherweight
27
AgeΔ 2 yrs
25
5'10"
Height
—
70"
Reach
—
Southpaw
Stance
—
9.1
Layoff (months)Δ 3 mo
6.1
W
Last 5 (newest first)
L

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Keiichiro Nakamura carries real power — 1.09 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.28 Featherweight norm.
Ollie Schmid absorbs 7.90 sig. strikes per minute, well above the 3.54 Featherweight norm — hittable.
Ollie Schmid rarely shoots — 0.00 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.17 Featherweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Keiichiro Nakamura

Full career not yet synced for Keiichiro Nakamura — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-0 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.0 wins over .500

Ollie Schmid

Full career not yet synced for Ollie Schmid — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.0 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

453.26/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
93.23/min · norm 3.52
795.72/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
227.90/min · norm 3.54
37.8%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
30.0%norm 44.8%
61.3%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
45.0%norm 54.8%
11.09/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
00.00/15 · norm 0.28

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Keiichiro Nakamura

Distance 94.1% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 2.5% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 3.4% (norm 6.4%)

Ollie Schmid

Distance 100.0% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 0.0% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 0.0% (norm 6.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Keiichiro Nakamura

Head 72.3% (norm 77.5%) · Body 15.1% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 12.6% (norm 7.9%)

Ollie Schmid

Head 50.0% (norm 77.5%) · Body 20.0% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 30.0% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Nakamura L/AAccFeatherweight med Schmid L/AAccFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 41 / 112 36.6% 40.7% 9 / 30 30.0% 40.7%
In the clinch 1 / 3 too few to rate 70.5% 0 / 0 too few to rate 70.5%
On the ground 3 / 4 too few to rate 69.1% 0 / 0 too few to rate 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 21 / 86 24.4% 37.2% 0 / 15 too few to rate 37.2%
To the body 11 / 18 too few to rate 68.4% 3 / 6 too few to rate 68.4%
To the legs 13 / 15 too few to rate 80.7% 6 / 9 too few to rate 80.7%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Featherweight: 129 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Nakamura L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Schmid L/AOpp accFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 78 / 202 38.6% 39.3% 19 / 36 52.8% 39.3%
In the clinch 1 / 1 too few to rate 70.3% 0 / 0 too few to rate 70.3%
On the ground 0 / 1 too few to rate 69.5% 3 / 4 too few to rate 69.5%
BY TARGET
To the head 47 / 150 31.3% 35.9% 14 / 25 56.0% 35.9%
To the body 24 / 46 52.2% 68.1% 2 / 7 too few to rate 68.1%
To the legs 8 / 8 too few to rate 81.1% 6 / 8 too few to rate 81.1%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
0— acc · 0.00/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
0— acc · 0.00/15 · norm 1.17
00.0% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
0— def · norm 61.5%
0:040.5% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
0:000.0% of cage time · norm 16.5%
0:000:00 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
0:040:21 per 15 · norm 3:11
00.00/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
00.00/15 · norm 0.44

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Nakamura has more cage time on record.