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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Mark Holst vs. John Gunderson

UFC 0-2-0 vs. 1-2-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
0-2-0
UFC record
1-2-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
41
AgeΔ 6 yrs
47
6'0"
HeightΔ 3"
5'9"
—
Reach
69"
Orthodox0-2 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox1-1 vs orthodox fighters
192.6
Layoff (months)Δ 1 mo
193.6
LL
Last 5 (newest first)
LWL

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Mark Holst is a submission threat — 2.28 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.48 Lightweight norm.
John Gunderson is a submission threat — 2.00 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.48 Lightweight norm.
John Gunderson's takedown defense leaks — 11% stopped, vs a 63% Lightweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Mark Holst

Full career not yet synced for Mark Holst — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-0 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record -0.5 wins over .500

John Gunderson

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 12
Tier 3 — regional circuit 3414

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.45 · 1 tier-1/2 wins · 32 finish wins over 53 documented bouts

In the UFC: 0-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.3 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

50.25/min · norm 3.43
Sig. strikes landed
471.04/min · norm 3.43
331.67/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
771.71/min · norm 3.37
19.2%norm 43.7%
Striking accuracy
27.5%norm 43.7%
47.6%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
58.6%norm 56.3%
00.00/15 · norm 0.23
Knockdowns
00.00/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Mark Holst

Distance 88.5% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 3.8% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 7.7% (norm 8.0%)

John Gunderson

Distance 70.8% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 5.8% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 23.4% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Mark Holst

Head 80.8% (norm 78.1%) · Body 11.5% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 7.7% (norm 8.0%)

John Gunderson

Head 86.0% (norm 78.1%) · Body 7.0% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 7.0% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Holst L/AAccLightweight med Gunderson L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 2 / 23 too few to rate 38.4% 20 / 121 16.5% 38.4%
In the clinch 1 / 1 too few to rate 67.5% 4 / 10 too few to rate 67.5%
On the ground 2 / 2 too few to rate 69.1% 23 / 40 57.5% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 1 / 21 too few to rate 35.3% 30 / 147 20.4% 35.3%
To the body 2 / 3 too few to rate 69.2% 10 / 12 too few to rate 69.2%
To the legs 2 / 2 too few to rate 81.8% 7 / 12 too few to rate 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 205 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Holst L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Gunderson L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 10 / 25 40.0% 38.9% 24 / 93 25.8% 38.9%
In the clinch 1 / 2 too few to rate 68.6% 5 / 10 too few to rate 68.6%
On the ground 22 / 36 61.1% 68.2% 48 / 83 57.8% 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 25 / 54 46.3% 35.2% 60 / 161 37.3% 35.2%
To the body 6 / 6 too few to rate 68.2% 10 / 14 too few to rate 68.2%
To the legs 2 / 3 too few to rate 81.5% 7 / 11 too few to rate 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
1100.0% acc · 0.76/15 · norm 1.34
Takedowns landed
533.3% acc · 1.67/15 · norm 1.34
660.0% def · norm 63.2%
Takedowns stopped
111.1% def · norm 63.2%
4:1421.4% of cage time · norm 19.0%
Control time
13:4030.4% of cage time · norm 19.0%
12:299:28 per 15 · norm 2:50
Time under control lower is better
20:216:47 per 15 · norm 2:50
32.28/15 · norm 0.48
Submission attempts
62.00/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Gunderson has more cage time on record.