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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Roy Nelson vs. Alexander Volkov

UFC 9-10-0 vs. 15-5-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
9-10-0
UFC record
15-5-0
Heavyweight
Division (benchmark)
Heavyweight
50
AgeΔ 12 yrs
38
6'0"
HeightΔ 7"
6'7"
73"
ReachΔ 7"
80"
Orthodox7-9 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox10-5 vs orthodox fighters
114.7
Layoff (months)Δ 114.3 mo
0.4
LWLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
WWWLW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Roy Nelson carries real power — 0.67 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.29 Heavyweight norm.
Alexander Volkov outworks the Heavyweight division — 5.07 sig. strikes landed per minute, vs a 3.28 norm.
Roy Nelson absorbs 4.86 sig. strikes per minute, well above the 3.19 Heavyweight norm — hittable.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Roy Nelson

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 1015
Tier 3 — regional circuit 135

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.61 · 10 tier-1/2 wins · 19 finish wins over 43 documented bouts

In the UFC: 5-8 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.0 wins over .500

Alexander Volkov

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 218
Tier 3 — regional circuit 193

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.34 · 21 tier-1/2 wins · 28 finish wins over 51 documented bouts

In the UFC: 13-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +4.2 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

4392.17/min · norm 3.28
Sig. strikes landed
13245.07/min · norm 3.28
9854.86/min · norm 3.19
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
8033.08/min · norm 3.19
37.3%norm 47.5%
Striking accuracy
57.1%norm 47.5%
45.6%norm 52.5%
Striking defense
53.8%norm 52.5%
90.67/15 · norm 0.29
Knockdowns
40.23/15 · norm 0.29

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Roy Nelson

Distance 82.5% (norm 79.2%) · Clinch 13.0% (norm 9.8%) · Ground 4.5% (norm 9.3%)

Alexander Volkov

Distance 88.4% (norm 79.2%) · Clinch 6.8% (norm 9.8%) · Ground 4.8% (norm 9.3%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Roy Nelson

Head 89.1% (norm 79.2%) · Body 6.3% (norm 11.5%) · Legs 4.6% (norm 7.6%)

Alexander Volkov

Head 70.5% (norm 79.2%) · Body 16.2% (norm 11.5%) · Legs 13.3% (norm 7.6%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Nelson L/AAccHeavyweight med Volkov L/AAccHeavyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 315 / 970 32.5% 40.1% 1122 / 2049 54.8% 40.1%
In the clinch 83 / 153 54.2% 70.6% 112 / 158 70.9% 70.6%
On the ground 41 / 53 77.4% 70.2% 90 / 111 81.1% 70.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 341 / 1048 32.5% 39.0% 769 / 1634 47.1% 39.0%
To the body 53 / 74 71.6% 77.0% 294 / 375 78.4% 77.0%
To the legs 45 / 54 83.3% 87.8% 261 / 309 84.5% 87.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Heavyweight: 93 fighters · Heavyweight: 93 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Nelson L/AOpp accHeavyweight med vs Volkov L/AOpp accHeavyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 710 / 1438 49.4% 40.7% 642 / 1515 42.4% 40.7%
In the clinch 259 / 354 73.2% 70.6% 44 / 60 73.3% 70.6%
On the ground 16 / 18 too few to rate 72.2% 117 / 162 72.2% 72.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 640 / 1402 45.6% 39.3% 455 / 1265 36.0% 39.3%
To the body 237 / 293 80.9% 75.1% 160 / 240 66.7% 75.1%
To the legs 108 / 115 93.9% 84.4% 188 / 232 81.0% 84.4%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
1629.6% acc · 1.18/15 · norm 0.90
Takedowns landed
1062.5% acc · 0.57/15 · norm 0.90
2064.5% def · norm 63.2%
Takedowns stopped
7270.6% def · norm 63.2%
41:0420.3% of cage time · norm 17.2%
Control time
24:559.5% of cage time · norm 17.2%
24:411:49 per 15 · norm 2:28
Time under control lower is better
56:133:13 per 15 · norm 2:28
10.07/15 · norm 0.17
Submission attempts
30.17/15 · norm 0.17

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Volkov has more cage time on record.