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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Tom Nolan vs. Nikolas Motta

UFC 6-1-0 vs. 3-3-0 (1 NC)

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
6-1-0
UFC record
3-3-0 (1 NC)
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
26
AgeΔ 7 yrs
33
6'3"
HeightΔ 6"
5'9"
73"
ReachΔ 3"
70"
Southpaw6-1 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox1-2 vs southpaws
0.1
Layoff (months)Δ 16.4 mo
16.5
WWWWW
Last 5 (newest first)
LWWNCL

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Nikolas Motta carries real power — 1.47 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.23 Lightweight norm.
Tom Nolan is a submission threat — 1.15 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.48 Lightweight norm.
Nikolas Motta rarely shoots — 0.00 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.34 Lightweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Tom Nolan

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 61
Tier 3 — regional circuit 50

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.73 · 6 tier-1/2 wins · 6 finish wins over 12 documented bouts

In the UFC: 3-0 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.4 wins over .500

Nikolas Motta

Full career not yet synced for Nikolas Motta — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.3 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

3244.95/min · norm 3.43
Sig. strikes landed
2314.52/min · norm 3.43
2143.27/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
2955.77/min · norm 3.37
49.5%norm 43.7%
Striking accuracy
41.3%norm 43.7%
47.8%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
48.3%norm 56.3%
10.23/15 · norm 0.23
Knockdowns
51.47/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Tom Nolan

Distance 78.3% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 10.6% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 11.2% (norm 8.0%)

Nikolas Motta

Distance 87.1% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 5.4% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 7.5% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Tom Nolan

Head 67.9% (norm 78.1%) · Body 22.0% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 10.1% (norm 8.0%)

Nikolas Motta

Head 88.0% (norm 78.1%) · Body 7.9% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 4.1% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Nolan L/AAccLightweight med Motta L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 225 / 512 43.9% 38.4% 186 / 487 38.2% 38.4%
In the clinch 45 / 69 65.2% 67.5% 14 / 30 46.7% 67.5%
On the ground 54 / 73 74.0% 69.1% 31 / 42 73.8% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 184 / 444 41.4% 35.3% 176 / 492 35.8% 35.3%
To the body 91 / 144 63.2% 69.2% 34 / 44 77.3% 69.2%
To the legs 49 / 66 74.2% 81.8% 21 / 23 too few to rate 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 205 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Nolan L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Motta L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 172 / 339 50.7% 38.9% 227 / 476 47.7% 38.9%
In the clinch 21 / 36 58.3% 68.6% 53 / 69 76.8% 68.6%
On the ground 21 / 35 60.0% 68.2% 15 / 26 57.7% 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 96 / 262 36.6% 35.2% 177 / 434 40.8% 35.2%
To the body 65 / 93 69.9% 68.2% 61 / 74 82.4% 68.2%
To the legs 53 / 55 96.4% 81.5% 57 / 63 90.5% 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
531.3% acc · 1.15/15 · norm 1.34
Takedowns landed
0— acc · 0.00/15 · norm 1.34
952.9% def · norm 63.2%
Takedowns stopped
1482.4% def · norm 63.2%
10:5616.7% of cage time · norm 19.0%
Control time
2:024.0% of cage time · norm 19.0%
21:064:49 per 15 · norm 2:50
Time under control lower is better
6:321:54 per 15 · norm 2:50
51.15/15 · norm 0.48
Submission attempts
00.00/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Nolan has more cage time on record.