Aleksandre Topuria

Opens by calling this the card's closest line match-up before picking, then immediately adds that he would not be shocked to see Topuria win, and earlier hedges openly, saying flatly that he does not know and expects pushback from viewers -- a direct hedge on the win itself, not just on price.

Rated a strong striker who presses forward behind a heavy jab -- thrown high and low -- setting up a power shot once he finds his range. His grappling grades out well too: solid takedowns, good advancement of position, and good top control paired with ground-and-pound. The analyst notes that his takedown defense, an open question before this, held up well in his most recent fight against a credible opponent.

He picks Thicknesse as a big underdog while admitting the matchup is tough to call and that he could be wrong about it.

Topuria fights in a similar mold to his brother Ilia -- forward pressure, real power, a jab worked high and low -- just without Ilia's head movement. He is called a capable grappler who seems to prefer the mat over striking, with good takedowns, solid top pressure and fairly sound ground-and-pound.