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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator
Colby Thicknesse
Bantamweight · “Slickness”

Colby Thicknesse

9-1-0 UFC 3-1-0
Relentless Attack Durable Suspect TD Defense Taken Down Often
5'7"Height
69"Reach
OrthodoxStance
27Age
0KO wins
0Sub wins
0%Finish rate
15:00Avg fight

Skill profile

Rated 0–100 · where 138 MMA has read him, his grades and tags set each axis and the stats only nudge inside his band · stats alone where he is silent · the rim is reserved for specialists
Striking — Below avg, rated 34 of 100 · 138 MMA: striking decent · Oct 2026 · stats read 40 → nudged +0 inside the band · tag counter striking: low (-3) · claims striking technique -2, kicking +1 (-2) Accuracy — Average, rated 46 of 100 · claims striking technique -2, counter striking -1 (-5) Striking D — Below avg, rated 34 of 100 · 138 MMA whiteboard: striking defence marked as a minus · stats read 46 → nudged +4 inside the band · claims striking defense -2, pressure resistance -1 (-6) Durability — Above avg, rated 76 of 100 · 138 MMA tag chin: durable · Oct 2026 · stats read 72 → nudged -1 inside the band · claims chin +2, pressure resistance -1 (+3) Wrestling — Average, rated 62 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis TD Defense — Below avg, rated 26 of 100 · 138 MMA tag td defense: suspect · Oct 2026 · stats read 9 → nudged -8 inside the band · claims td defense -2 (-4) Grappling — Average, rated 68 of 100 · 138 MMA: grappling good · Oct 2026 · stats read 70 → nudged +5 inside the band · claims sub offense +3, ground and pound +2 (+6) Control — Average, rated 68 of 100 · claims top control +1, ground and pound +2 (+7) Striking Accuracy Striking D Durability Wrestling TD Defense Grappling Control
striking decent
4 analyst reads graded this phase
  • decent UFC 333 Full Card Preview & Predictions · October 17, 2026 watch ↗
  • decent UFC Fight Night Della Maddalena vs Prates Full Card Preview & Predictions · April 26, 2026 watch ↗
  • decent UFC Fight Night Ulberg vs Reyes Full Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · September 23, 2025 watch ↗
  • decent UFC 312 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · February 4, 2025 watch ↗
grappling good
3 analyst reads graded this phase
  • good UFC 333 Full Card Preview & Predictions · October 17, 2026 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Della Maddalena vs Prates Full Card Preview & Predictions · April 26, 2026 watch ↗
  • good UFC 312 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · February 4, 2025 watch ↗
wrestling not yet read
cardio good
1 analyst read graded this phase
  • good UFC Fight Night Ulberg vs Reyes Full Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · September 23, 2025 watch ↗
durability not yet read
striking decent 4 reads
grappling good 3 reads
wrestling not yet read
cardio good 1 read
durability not yet read

138 MMA anchors Striking, Striking D, Durability, TD Defense, Grappling · his tags and claims adjust Accuracy, Control · stats alone on Wrestling.

Built on 60 minutes of tracked cage time across 4 statted fights — every axis is held down until there is more tape, so read this as a sketch rather than a verdict.

Relentless Attack 82 offensive actions per 15 min — strikes, takedown and submission attempts together
Durable above avg durability — rates 76 of 100 · 138 MMA tag chin: durable · Oct 2026
Suspect TD Defense 138 MMA · Oct 2026 tags td defense: suspect
Taken Down Often put on his back 12 times · 3.0 per 15 min
Career rates — the raw numbers behind the chart
Sig. strikes landed / min3.72
Sig. strikes absorbed / min3.1
Striking accuracy45.5%
Striking defense51.7%
Knockdowns / 15 min0.0
Takedowns / 15 min0.75
Takedown accuracy7.0%
Takedown defense33.3%
Sub attempts / 15 min1.25
Control time23.3%
Record vs .500+ opponents0-0

Insider info

4 analyst reads · 138 MMA · our paraphrase, never his words
vs Asaf Chopurov clear UFC 333 Full Card Preview & Predictions · October 17, 2026
strikingdecent grapplinggood cardiogood

"We're taking Choporov" after a built case on Thicknesse's poor striking defense and shaky takedown defense versus Chopurov's all-around grappling.

Decent striker who kicks well to all levels off either leg, but his striking defense is poor once he is backed up -- though he recovers quickly after being hurt. Good grappler with decent takedowns and a strong back-taking/ground-and-pound game, but his own takedown defense is not good and he lacks a second gear once a finish does not come quickly.

Strengthkicks to all levels off either leg
Strengthfake-shot-into-strike entries
Strengthrecovers quickly after being hurt
Strengthgood back taker
Strengthgood ground and pound
Weaknessstriking defense is poor once backed up
Weaknessbelow-average as a counter striker
Weaknesslacks second effort on takedowns
Weaknesstakedown defense isn't good
chin · durablecounter striking · lowtd defense · suspect
vs Vince Morales coinflip UFC Fight Night Della Maddalena vs Prates Full Card Preview & Predictions · April 26, 2026 · 1 read since
strikingdecent grapplinggood cardiogood

says the fight could go either way; signs off with a betting-disinterest idiom

Colby Thicknesse is a decent kicker off either leg who historically struggles once a come-forward boxer drags him into close range, which is exactly the matchup Morales presents. He turns takedown entries into strikes, has shown good recovery after being hurt, and is the sturdier of the two on the feet, but he doesn't commit to a second attempt if his first takedown fails. On the mat he is a good grappler: a strong back-taker and ground-and-pound artist whose long limbs aid his control, though his own takedown defense is shaky.

Strengthkicks to all levels off either leg
Strengthgood recovery after being hurt
Strengthstrong back-taker and top control
Weaknessstruggles when pinned into pure boxing range
Weaknessno second effort on a failed takedown
Weaknessweak takedown defense
td defense · suspect
vs Josias Musasa coinflip UFC Fight Night Ulberg vs Reyes Full Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · September 23, 2025 · 2 reads since
strikingdecent cardiogood grapplinggood

He says outright that Musasa probably wins if the fight stays standing, before picking Thicknesse on the conditional that it reaches the mat -- a bare pick resting on one scenario, with the other man's path to winning stated plainly first.

A decent striker with kicks to all levels from either leg, often using a takedown entry to set up his striking. He recovers quickly when hurt but also gets hurt often and backs up. His real path is the mat: a good back-taker who attacks the rear naked choke well, with good control from long limbs, good ground-and-pound and good cardio, despite takedown defense he does not mind giving up because he wants the fight there anyway.

Strengthdecent kicking from either leg, uses takedown entries to strike
Strengthgood back-taker, attacks rear naked choke well, good ground-and-pound
Strengthgood cardio
Weaknessgets hurt often and backs up
Weaknesstakedown defense is weak, though by design since he wants the mat
vs Aleksandre Topuria lean UFC 312 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · February 4, 2025 · 3 reads since
strikingdecent grapplinggood

He picks Thicknesse as a big underdog while admitting the matchup is tough to call and that he could be wrong about it.

Thicknesse is a massive underdog who the analyst says has fought much better competition than Topuria. His striking has problems -- not a high-quality boxer, gets backed up, has been dropped often -- but his kicks to all levels (off either leg, sometimes setting up takedowns) are good, and he recovers from knockdowns quickly. His grappling is the stronger half of his game: decent takedowns, very good back takes with persistent rear-naked-choke attempts, good control, and cardio good enough to still be there deep into a fight.

Strengthkicks to all levels off either leg, sometimes used to set up takedowns
Strengthrecovers quickly when dropped
Strengthvery good back takes and persistent rear-naked choke attempts
Strengthgood control and use of his long limbs on the ground
Strengthstrong cardio, holds up over high-paced fights
Weaknessnot a high-quality boxer, punches are a weaker part of his striking
Weaknessgets backed up
Weaknesshas been dropped often
Weaknesstakedown defense is not the best, the one thing keeping his grappling below a higher grade by the analyst's own estimation
chin · durable

Striking trend

Sig. strikes/min, last 4 fights · green = win
February 8, 2025 vs Aleksandre Topuria — 2.53/min (L) Feb '25 September 27, 2025 vs Josias Musasa — 4.13/min (W) Sep '25 May 2, 2026 vs Vince Morales — 3.07/min (W) May '26 October 24, 2026 vs Asaf Chopurov — 5.13/min (W) Oct '26

Fight history

4 UFC bouts · newest first · opponent records as of fight night
W Asaf Chopurov 0-0 walk-in Decision - Split · R3 5:00 — UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · October 24, 2026
77/135Sig. strikes
54/96Absorbed
1/15Takedowns
3:14Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Vince Morales 16-10 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · May 2, 2026
46/117Sig. strikes
48/121Absorbed
0/6Takedowns
3:01Control
0Knockdowns
4Sub attempts
W Josias Musasa 0-1 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · September 27, 2025
62/111Sig. strikes
43/89Absorbed
2/14Takedowns
7:45Control
0Knockdowns
1Sub attempts
L Aleksandre Topuria 5-1 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · February 8, 2025
38/127Sig. strikes
41/79Absorbed
0/8Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts

Walk-in records count UFC bouts in this database. For the pre-UFC career, see the record breakdown below or the Tapology button up top.

Record breakdown

Full pro career (Wikipedia, results only)
9-1-0Pro record
Freestyle Fighting GymGym / team

Wins by method

KO/TKO 2
Submission 2
Decision 5
Other 0

Losses by method

KO/TKO 0
Submission 0
Decision 1
Other 0

Fights by organization

UFC 3
Hex Fight Series 3
Canggu Fight Night 2
Eternal MMA 2
Full career — 10 fights, every organization
OpponentMethodEventOrg RdTime
W Vince Morales Decision (unanimous) UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates
May 2, 2026
UFC 3 5:00
W Josias Musasa Decision (unanimous) UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes
September 28, 2025
UFC 3 5:00
L Aleksandre Topuria Decision (unanimous) UFC 312
February 9, 2025
UFC 3 5:00
W Marvin Malunes KO (elbows) Hex Fight Series 33
November 23, 2024
Hex Fight Series 1 —
W Norman Agcorpra Submission (rear-naked choke) Canggu Fight Night 32
October 27, 2024
Canggu Fight Night 1 2:38
W Jufri Gobel TKO (punches) Canggu Fight Night 31
July 21, 2024
Canggu Fight Night 1 1:50
W Michael Mannu Decision (unanimous) Hex Fight Series 29
March 2, 2024
Hex Fight Series 3 5:00
W Michael Barber Decision (unanimous) Hex Fight Series 25
February 23, 2024
Hex Fight Series 3 5:00
W Semakadde Kakembo Decision (unanimous) Eternal MMA 70
September 17, 2022
Eternal MMA 3 5:00
W Shaun Johnson Submission (rear-naked choke) Eternal MMA 55
November 21, 2020
Eternal MMA 1 4:54

Career history from the fighter's Wikipedia record table (Colby Thicknesse) — results only, no strike stats; UFC bouts are marked and carry full stats in the fight history above.

Division context

vs. 124 qualified Bantamweight fighters · tick = division mean
Striking volume /min 3.7 avg 3.7
Strikes absorbed /min 3.1 avg 3.6
Striking accuracy 45.5% avg 44.0%
Striking defense 51.7% avg 56.4%
Takedowns /15 min 0.8 avg 1.6
Takedown accuracy 7.0% avg 36.9%
Takedown defense 33.3% avg 62.8%
Sub attempts /15 min 1.2 avg 0.5
Control time 23.3% avg 19.4%
Finish rate 0.0% avg 48.2%

Headshot of Colby Thicknesse by UFC · Official UFC athlete photo (copyright UFC; not freely licensed) · Wikimedia Commons · flattened onto dark background, cropped/resized