Alessandro Costa

He states 'gonna take Duran' but right after admits the pick 'can absolutely get finished', a hedge on the win itself.

A good, technically sound striker who picks his shots, works the body, carries a good jab and good power, with the overhand as his real finishing shot. He stops takedowns and has good ground and pound and a nice armbar, but the analyst's recurring complaint is that he does not do enough -- he is willing to give up minutes to win moments. He has also taken an unusually heavy run of short-notice fights, including one cutting weight from a higher number, which raises a durability-of-the-cut question for this matchup.

He calls it "a trickier one to call" (5-word quote) and "hard to really say", naming Costa mainly on Schnell's durability concerns while granting Schnell the decision path.

A powerful striker, especially with the overhand, who also carries a good jab and leg kick and works the body well; his main limiter on the feet is low volume since he prefers to pick his shot. His takedown defense is called good, his top ground-and-pound solid, and he owns a dangerous armbar. He is taking this on short notice after a recent fight, which raises some question about his current conditioning.

expects a finish on the feet

As of 2026-03-29, a good striker whose overhand is his primary power shot, backed by a good jab and body work, though the analyst notes he often stands and waits for that one big shot rather than pushing volume. His grappling is good enough, anchored by good takedown defense, good ground and pound and a slick armbar. His recent record has dipped, which the analyst attributes to facing much tougher competition than this opponent.

'We're going Korea' [Coria] with a real mechanism (output/volume edge, Costa's ring rust); the one hedge raised (a KO is possible) is about METHOD, not the win, so it does not demote.

A good striker with real power (especially the overhand) and a good jab, but his volume isn't always there. Grapples well too, defending takedowns capably and landing heavy top work, with a slick armbar that is his go-to finish.

Repeats conviction twice ('feel pretty good'), frames Borjas as a standout pick that jumped off the page with a clear mechanism (volume/pace edge); only hedge is the generic MMA-can-be-crazy disclaimer, not a route-specific doubt.

Costa is a good striker built around real power -- his overhand is called deadly and he digs well to the body -- but his low output volume is the problem the analyst keeps returning to. He is the better grappler of the two, with solid takedown defense, a real close-range takedown entry, good ground-and-pound, and armbar-specialist submissions.

He states outright that he is skipping any real betting weight on this one, telling viewers he is just watching it as a fan, and invites a better argument, calling it a fight he can 'definitely be swayed' on even after naming his pick.

A good, fairly balanced striker with real power who likes to hunt the big overhand and also works the body well, backed by a sharp jab. His output between those power shots can run lackluster, since he tends to wait for the one big opening rather than building volume. On the ground he has good takedown defense, is a good jiu-jitsu player and an armbar specialist, with strong ground and pound that regularly sets up that same armbar from the top. As of 2023-11-07.

States plainly that he favors Costa here, built on Flick's suspect chin (KO'd in 5 of 6 losses) and Costa's good takedown defense; the only qualifier raised -- that he likes the under-rounds bet even more -- is a method/round bet preference, not a hedge on who wins.

A good striker with real power who works the body well, though sometimes his volume is a bit low. His takedown defense is good, which the analyst flags as important against a grappler like Flick. His own jiu-jitsu is solid but not great -- mostly used to scramble back up or work a sweep rather than control or finish.

A fairly firm outcome lean (expects a finish, not a decision) paired with wager caution about the moneyline price ('the odds are crazy'); he plays an unders-rounds prop instead of the moneyline itself.

A dangerous Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist with deadly armbars (including a flying armbar earlier in his career) and real power in his hands, having scored a 12-second knockout in his last fight. His known weakness is going low-volume at times, which cost him a close decision in his lone Contender Series appearance; he is now taking a short-notice UFC debut against a very tough opponent.