Steve Erceg

He admits being "tempted" to pick the other man, closes with "I guess," and says he would personally stay away from betting this one -- the hallmarks of a coinflip.

Graded a good striker with good straight punches, good volume, combinations and a very active lead leg, landing front and leg kicks off either leg. His grappling is solid: decent takedowns, solid top control, scrambling and quick submission attacks, mostly chokes. The analyst's central, repeated concern is durability -- flagged as the main risk even while ultimately picking him to win.

says outright he doesn't know which side to take before settling on a single-round rationale

On pure technique Steve Erceg owns the crisper hands: sharp straight punches, a busy output, varied combinations, and a lead leg he fires constantly for front and leg kicks, and his ground game is just as capable, with decent takedowns, firm top position, and fast submission entries. The bigger concern is that his chin is eroding over time: he is being put down more often lately and bouncing back slower than before, which is making him noticeably more cautious and therefore easier to catch clean. That growing caution against an awkward, unorthodox opponent is the crux of the pick against him.

Says 'more paths lean' his way and notes he isn't on short notice, but concedes either man is live for a finish if it stays standing and that 'Osborne could play upset here' -- real, unrebutted risk acknowledged alongside the pick.

A good striker -- straights down the pipe, good volume and combinations, a very active lead leg, good front and leg kicks. Even so, his grappling is the better side of his game: very solid, with decent takedowns, solid top control once on top, and quick-attack submissions (especially chokes). The analyst explicitly attributes his one grappling-based setback to facing a specific elite grappler (Pantoja), not to his own grappling being bad, and notes he came in without a short-notice disadvantage.

winner named for two stated reasons -- the home crowd in Mexico, and a cardio/altitude edge -- tag 'both.'; directly preceded by a repeated, explicit outcome-doubt statement and a declared intent to stay off the fight entirely, closed again with 'close fight' at the pick itself -- a named winner plus a stay-away instruction, which the corpus convention caps at coinflip.

Good striker who brings real output, clean straight shots and a useful leg kick, stringing combinations together well; his defense has been a weak point that has cost him before, though his chin holds up. Solid jiu-jitsu with a deep toolbox, strong top control, and a fast trigger on submissions -- chokes especially -- whether from position or out of a scramble.

Calls it a good, close fight, even conceding Kara-France is probably the better pure striker -- but commits to Erceg specifically because he can mix in competitive striking with his grappling, is developing quickly fight over fight, and faces an opponent dealing with recent injuries.

Good striker with accurate straights, good volume, good leg kicks, and combinations the analyst says he has only recently started mixing in much more -- an explicit, stated improvement. His defense on the feet is a real liability, but he's incredibly durable and willing to walk forward through shots. His real strength is a very solid Jiu-Jitsu game with a large toolbox, excellent top control, and a quick, opportunistic ability to jump on submissions -- chokes especially -- the instant he spots an opening.

Stacks superlative conviction with zero hedge on the outcome, calling the champion simply too good to lose here and brushing aside any opponent threat as something he expects to be fought through rather than something he fears.

Erceg, in just his third UFC fight after winning on short notice against a ranked opponent, is a good striker with good volume, leg kicks and clean combinations -- the analyst notes his striking has visibly developed even since reaching the UFC, moving from single shots to real combinations. His defense is a problem at times, though durability has made up for it so far. Jiu-jitsu is his best area: solid with a large toolbox, strong top control, and quick, choke-focused submission attacks that hold position while attacking the neck.

Names Erceg as the pick twice, back to back, with a stated two-part mechanism: the more durable man, able to land long straights at a high rate, plus a slight jiu-jitsu edge if it reaches the mat. No hedge on the winner.

A solid jiu-jitsu player carrying a deep, varied grappling toolbox: standout top control, sweeps from the bottom, and a clear preference for attacking the neck/chokes. His striking is good -- not especially crisp or polished, but with a good leg kick and good straight punches, backed by forward pressure and volume. He is durable despite being fairly easy to hit (does not block or evade especially well).

He states outright that he is skipping any real betting weight on this one, telling viewers he is just watching it as a fan, and invites a better argument, calling it a fight he can 'definitely be swayed' on even after naming his pick.

A decent striker who leans on good volume, a good leg kick, and straight punches as his best weapon, with a striking defense that is not his strength and a durability the analyst calls real, pointing to fights where he has eaten clean shots and kept going. He wants the fight on the mat most of the time, where he is rated solid in jiu-jitsu with good, even very good, top control, and the analyst singles out his submission-hunting once there as especially sharp. As of 2023-11-07.

Leans Dvorak on veteran experience over the UFC-debuting Erceg, but explicitly calls it his weakest pick on the card and says the market price looks off to him.

Steve Erceg (named 'ursic'/'ersig'/'Steven Hersey' by ASR throughout -- resolved to Erceg by file boundary and roster match) is read as a submission-first grappler: strong top control, quick to attack subs, and a credible path to victory simply by getting the fight to the mat and on top. His striking is secondary -- decent long, rangey straights and leg kicks that benefit from a height/reach edge -- but his own striking defense is a real hole: no head movement, and he eats shots. The analyst separately calls him very durable, which he says offsets some of that defensive risk.