Aljamain Sterling

picks Sterling by a hair, calling the matchup a genuine toss-up

Deceptively long-ranged, well-rounded veteran striker with a good jab and kicks to all levels, and an elite-level grappler whose back control is rated among the best in the division. Fighting what the analyst frames as a do-or-die bout for his own title hopes.

He commits to a winner, but openly allows the opposite path is live too, framing his read as what happens more often than not rather than a certainty.

A good striker -- good movement, long jab, kicks to all levels -- whose awkward style the analyst says makes his striking look more dangerous than it might otherwise. He is also a solid grappler: a low takedown entry, really good scrambles, staying low to avoid strikes if a takedown fails, good back takes and excellent control. The analyst expects him to win more through control on the mat than through finishing. As of 2025-08-18.

Calls the matchup 'close' and 'tough' before naming Sterling as a big underdog pick, and says 'everybody's gonna say I'm wrong.'

Super high-level grappler with a very low takedown entry, excellent scrambles, strong back-taking, and excellent top control once he gets there; stays low to avoid damage when takedowns fail. Decent striker with good movement, a long jab, and kicks to all levels -- not the most technical but effective. His only recent loss came on the feet to a far better striker, which is not expected to repeat here.

Explicit naming carries the pick despite the tag -- he states directly that he has to take Kattar here. But he repeatedly calls the matchup 'a tricky read' and admits he may be 'crazy' for stacking underdogs this card -- hedges on the read itself, not just method, which keep this at lean rather than clear.

High-level wrestler who shoots low, ankle-level entries and stays safe from strikes even on failed attempts, with excellent scrambles and back control once he gets there. Decent striker with a deceptively long jab and leg/head kicks, but the analyst sees the striking matchup favoring Kattar and the fight turning on whether Sterling's wrestling volume can land.

He says plainly that the breakdown points to Sterling but takes 'the shot on the dog' with O'Malley by decision anyway, adding he would not be shocked to be wrong and explicitly advising against betting O'Malley to win outright -- a real, repeated pick, just the most heavily hedged one on the card.

Aljamain Sterling is graded a high-level wrestler -- low entries, a strong back-take and control game, and good scrambling -- plus decent, varied striking (long jab, leg kicks, an occasional head kick) and real physical strength. He is noted for winning mostly by decision rather than finish lately. The analyst expects him to control any round that reaches the mat.

A real, repeated analytical conclusion -- he says plainly that Cejudo should get the win, and separately names him as the pick -- built on fight IQ, output, and takedown-defense reasoning that stands on its own. It is capped below clear by one named, unresolved concern specific to the pick itself: the three-year layoff leaves him unable to bet it, since he is confident Cejudo is mentally sharp but openly unsure whether he is still physically sharp. This is his own betting reluctance tied to a real, conceded unknown, not a blanket advisory to viewers to avoid the fight.

The much bigger, stronger man physically for the weight class -- a 'freak of nature' at bantamweight. A very high-level wrestler, excellent at back control once he gets there (by scramble or by advancing position), with very good scrambles of his own. He had to develop his striking in the UFC rather than coming in with it: good range and a long, zippy jab off his reach advantage, good lateral movement, and a sneaky good head kick (sometimes thrown off-balance) that is especially effective against a shorter opponent. The analyst's real doubt is whether he can actually land a takedown here at all -- but says explicitly that if he lands a CLEAN one (not off a scramble/fluke), it is a live-bet-worthy moment: back control, riding out minutes, and fishing for submissions.

He puts Dillashaw's own chances at roughly a coin flip and says he picks him mainly for the plus-150 underdog price.

The champion, with superb Jiu-Jitsu blended into his wrestling almost as a single art -- rated as doing this better than nearly anyone in the sport -- plus a 4-inch reach advantage and underrated striking. His main problem in this specific matchup is that his opponent has excellent takedown defense, making his best tool hard to use, and he is rated the clearly worse pure striker here.