Petr Yan

He states directly this is "close to a coin flip" and "so 50/50"; he leans Merab on cardio/takedown volume versus a less fatigued Yan but repeats it could go either way.

Strong on the feet -- heavy pressure forward, a high guard, crisp combination work and smart counters, plus a very good counter game built around pivoting off the cage and returning fire. Durable, with a capable clinch (trips, throws, knees, dirty boxing) and fantastic takedown defense that frees him to mix in takedowns of his own. The one technical knock is a naked kick thrown from southpaw, which Merab could catch into a takedown. He carries no formal grappling heading at all -- a genuine absence matching his own description of being a striker who can grapple, not a grappler. Historically tagged a slow starter; the analyst questions whether that label still applies given how much film both men now have on each other.

leans toward Dvalishvili on volume, gas tank and sheer takedown repetition, yet qualifies the pick by explicitly refusing to call the outcome a sure thing

As of 2025-12-02, he comes forward with a high guard, stringing together combinations and excelling at countering (blocking into a return, pivoting off into his own shot). He fights from either side, but when southpaw he throws kicks the analyst calls exposed, flagged as an opening to be caught and brought down. He plants himself in front of opponents to use his Muay Thai and boxing rather than circling the outside, and he's tough. In the clinch he's dangerous -- sharp trips, throws, knees and dirty boxing -- and he mixes in his own takedowns with excellent defense against them, though the analyst notes that a whole fight spent defending leaves no room for his own offense, which is what happened in the pair's earlier meeting. He opens slowly but has five rounds to work with. He finishes when he hurts someone.

picks Yan on skill set and level of competition but explicitly calls it 'a really close fight', concedes McGhee could take a three-round fight's first round, and says he is close to flipping to the underdog on price

A skilled, balanced striker known for pressing the pace behind a raised guard - a genuine double-edged trait depending on how officials read the waiting game. His counters are the key to this fight: mainly a block-then-return, backed by a secondary pivot-and-strike. He stuffs takedowns reasonably well, mixing in trip- and throw-based entries of his own. He shows real finishing instinct but is a notably slow starter, which matters across a short fight against a quick-building foe. He has competed near the sport's summit for years, arriving off two sharp outings following an earlier rough patch.

He names Figueiredo as the pick and offers a real case for it -- Yan's difficulty staying in front of him, plus power and grappling that hold up even against solid takedown defense -- but immediately undercuts his own conviction by calling the matchup roughly even on skill, and frames the whole pick as a reaction to what he sees as badly mispriced odds rather than a lopsided read.

A very solid striker who walks opponents down behind a high guard, mixing good combinations with real counter-craft -- either letting a man punch himself out before answering, or pivoting off the angle to fire back. He is a famously slow starter who spends the opening portion reading his opponent, and he is credited with real durability and a strong finishing mentality. His clinch work (trips, throws, deadly knees, dirty boxing) is called excellent, and his takedown defense has held up against determined attempts, though his habit of standing square in front of opponents and of firing unprotected kicks from southpaw are both flagged as risks against this particular opponent.

Explicitly says both men have the skill to win, then picks Song mainly on momentum and current mental state rather than a clean technical edge, while also calling the fight close and more likely to go to decision.

Very high-level, counter-heavy striker built around block-and-return and pivot-and-strike counters, a high guard, real durability, and genuinely great takedown defense, though he comes forward with naked leg kicks the analyst dislikes and has a habit of standing in front of opponents while waiting for his counters. The bigger concern isn't his skill but his recent form -- a 1-4 stretch the analyst attributes to bad luck since losing the title by disqualification -- and the analyst explicitly weighs Yan's current mental/momentum state against him in making this pick.

A direct declaration naming Yan as the pick is explicit, but immediately undercut: the analyst admits the favorite's size on a fighter coming off a losing stretch worries him a little, and the whole case depends on a projected, not yet proven, return of Yan's "killer instinct." That is a real hedge on the win itself, not just on price or method.

A high-level, technical striker: good forward pressure, mixed combinations to the body and head, solid leg kicks, and a real counter-striking game built on blocking and immediately returning fire with a high guard and the ability to pivot off. His takedown defense is very good (cited near 90%). The analyst's central thesis is psychological: Yan lost his killer instinct after a disqualification loss and has not fully had it since, through losses to Sterling and O'Malley, but projects he will bring it back here.

He explicitly puts his own pick's win chance around 40%, calls the wager 'root beer money,' and admits he'd rather pick Yan before still taking O'Malley for the value.

Rated the more dangerous, technically superior fighter overall, with top-tier, powerful boxing and an underused Muay-Thai-style trip to mix in. His well-documented weakness is being a slow starter, which cost him a round against a similarly tall, long opponent before he found his range and took over late.