Caio Borralho

says it's a 50-50 fight

Billed just below the night's true headliner, which was covered in a separate dedicated video, Borralho is a good, more patient striker with good range control, straight punches and combinations who fights comfortably from either stance. His grappling is also graded solid: his takedowns and trip game are good, his control on top is solid, he takes the back well, and his sweeps are good, and he prefers staying on top rather than working off his back. The analyst thinks whoever dictates the striking likely wins, and believes Borralho has the more consistent round-winning formula even though the fight could go either way.

names 'Kyle Ohio'/'Kyio' at -112, but says plainly his confidence is a little lower

A good striker the analyst credits with managing distance well and staying out of harm's way there, throwing sharp straights, tight combinations, and strong counters -- called calculated on the feet. Solid grappler with good takedowns, good trips, and the analyst's own words 'excellent control' on top (a sub-bullet component of the board's 'Solid Control' line, not a separate heading-level claim), plus good sweeps; landing the back is called a real danger for the opponent. The analyst's explicitly stated deciding mechanism for the whole fight is this grappling edge if he can get it there. Shortly before this bout he had to weigh in as a title-fight backup, stacking back-to-back weight cuts, which the analyst says lowers his own confidence in the pick without changing the pick itself.

Stated twice in almost identical terms, committing to Borralho both times, around an explicit mechanism (gameplan, youth, grappling control over a five-round fight); a floated 'conspiracy' aside about rule changes is explicitly set aside as something he will not factor in, not adopted as a hedge.

A 31-year-old, 16-1 contender on a five-fight win streak, called a solid grappler with good takedowns, good trips, excellent top control and excellent sweeps -- when he takes the back, the analyst says plainly you are not getting him off it. His striking is good too, not his primary tool but genuinely good, with range control, good counters and good straight punches. The gameplan the analyst expects, and picks him for, is using that grappling control to bank rounds across a five-round fight rather than needing a finish.

Names Borralho outright as the winner in his own closing line, built on Craig needing one specific, narrow path (the triangle from guard) that the analyst says generally scares him off picking Craig in any fight.

Borralho is the more well-rounded fighter per the analyst: a solid grappler with good takedowns, trips, solid control and good sweeps, best when he takes the back; on the feet he is a good striker with range control, counters and long rangy straights, though he keeps his chin a little high. The analyst calls him the better overall fighter and says that unless Craig lands his one specific submission path, Borralho wins.

he repeats more than once that this is a genuinely difficult fight to call, and spells out a real route for Magomedov to win, especially standing, before naming his pick

Caio Borralho is credited with good striking -- range control, counters, clean straights -- but the analyst says his grappling is presented as the real difference-maker: good takedowns including trips, solid control on top, and he calls him an excellent back-taker who ends the fight once he's there, plus good sweeps from the bottom.

States the pick plainly ('feel pretty good about it') off a grappling-path mechanism (good takedowns, very strong top control, back-taking), names the opponent's knockout power as the live risk, and resolves it by saying the opponent only wins that exchange if he is foolish enough to stand and trade -- answered rather than left hanging.

A good wrestler with a good takedown and exceptionally strong top control once he gets there, plus solid jiu-jitsu built around taking the back. His own striking is decent, with range control named as his tool for closing the distance needed to get to his wrestling. The analyst frames him as the fighter 'on a surge' making his way up, a size/level step relative to the opponent.

He calls Borralho his 'clear pick' and estimates he wins 'nine times out of ten,' willing to back him even at a shorter price, with only a brief nod that the matchup isn't completely lopsided.

The analyst ranks his jiu-jitsu, takedown game, and ground control among the very top of the division, with relentless top pressure and the ability to finish from almost anywhere on the mat. Explicitly called a highly skilled prospect he expects to see 'big things' from going forward, with his main flaw being a low-hands karate stance that leaves his chin open.