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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator
Connor Matthews
Featherweight · “The Controller”

Connor Matthews

0-3-0
Volume Machine Durable
5'8"Height
71"Reach
SwitchStance
34Age
0KO wins
0Sub wins
0%Finish rate
5:24Avg fight

Skill profile

Rated 0–100 · where 138 MMA has read him, his grades and tags set each axis and the stats only nudge inside his band · stats alone where he is silent · the rim is reserved for specialists
Striking — Average, rated 46 of 100 · 138 MMA: striking decent · May 2025 · stats read 35 → nudged -2 inside the band · tag counter striking: good (+1) · tag pace: high volume (+2) · claims striking volume +2, kicking +2, pressure +2 (+5) Accuracy — Below avg, rated 33 of 100 · claims counter striking +1 (+1) Striking D — Below avg, rated 26 of 100 · 138 MMA whiteboard: striking defence marked as a minus · stats read 19 → nudged -6 inside the band · claims striking defense -2 (-6) Durability — Above avg, rated 75 of 100 · 138 MMA tag chin: durable · May 2025 · stats read 4 → nudged -3 inside the band · claims chin +2 (+4) Wrestling — Below avg, rated 42 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis TD Defense — Below avg, rated 44 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Grappling — Below avg, rated 42 of 100 · 138 MMA: grappling decent · May 2025 · stats read 29 → nudged -3 inside the band · tag sub threat: good (+3) · claims sub offense +2 (+4) Control — Below avg, rated 40 of 100 · claims top control +1 (+4) Striking Accuracy Striking D Durability Wrestling TD Defense Grappling Control
striking decent
3 analyst reads graded this phase
  • decent UFC Fight Night: Burns vs Morales Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · May 12, 2025 watch ↗
  • decent UFC Fight Night Cannonier vs Rodrigues Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · February 11, 2025 watch ↗
  • decent UFC Fight Night Blanchfield vs Fiorot Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown (UFC Atlantic City) · March 26, 2024 watch ↗
grappling decent
3 analyst reads graded this phase
  • decent UFC Fight Night: Burns vs Morales Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · May 12, 2025 watch ↗
  • decent UFC Fight Night Cannonier vs Rodrigues Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · February 11, 2025 watch ↗
  • decent UFC Fight Night Blanchfield vs Fiorot Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown (UFC Atlantic City) · March 26, 2024 watch ↗
wrestling not yet read
cardio not yet read
durability good
1 analyst read graded this phase
  • good UFC Fight Night Blanchfield vs Fiorot Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown (UFC Atlantic City) · March 26, 2024 watch ↗
striking decent 3 reads
grappling decent 3 reads
wrestling not yet read
cardio not yet read
durability good 1 read

138 MMA anchors Striking, Striking D, Durability, Grappling · his tags and claims adjust Accuracy, Control · stats alone on Wrestling, TD Defense.

Built on 16 minutes of tracked cage time across 3 statted fights — every axis is held down until there is more tape, so read this as a sketch rather than a verdict.

Volume Machine 138 MMA · May 2025 tags pace: high volume
Durable above avg durability — rates 75 of 100 · 138 MMA tag chin: durable · May 2025
Career rates — the raw numbers behind the chart
Sig. strikes landed / min4.25
Sig. strikes absorbed / min6.96
Striking accuracy40.4%
Striking defense55.3%
Knockdowns / 15 min0.0
Takedowns / 15 min2.77
Takedown accuracy50.0%
Takedown defense0.0%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.0
Control time8.9%
Record vs .500+ opponents0-0

Insider info

3 analyst reads · 138 MMA · our paraphrase, never his words
vs Yadier Delvalle lean UFC Fight Night: Burns vs Morales Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · May 12, 2025
strikingdecent grapplingdecent durabilitygood

Commits to del Valle despite several hedges (guillotine habit, striking that can get wild) and says the betting line makes the other side tempting.

An unrefined but tough forward-marching striker who keeps a high output and fires back even immediately after eating a clean shot, with his body kick singled out as the best tool in his arsenal. His defensive technique on the feet is a clear weak spot, and his ground game is only average aside from a dangerous rear naked choke that has already closed out several of his wins.

Strengthforward pressure and volume
Strengthcounters well even after getting hit
Strengthgood body kick
Strengthtoughness/durability
Strengthdangerous rear naked choke
Weaknesspoor striking defense
chin · durablecounter striking · goodpace · high volumesub threat · good
vs Jose Delgado emphatic UFC Fight Night Cannonier vs Rodrigues Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · February 11, 2025 · 1 read since
strikingdecent grapplingdecent durabilitygood

He calls Delgado 'very very skilled' and says Matthews has no real chance, framing him as 'set up' to be dominated, naming Delgado the pick with no qualifier on the winner beyond mild puzzlement about the betting line.

A decent, durable striker who comes forward with good volume and counters as he eats shots, plus a solid body kick, though his own blocking is thin. His grappling is decent, built around a good rear naked choke once he gets to the back. As of 2025-02-11.

Strengthdurable, comes forward with good volume and solid counters, good body kick
Weaknesspoor blocking on the feet
Weaknessrated decent across the board with no clear advantage over Delgado
chin · durablecounter striking · good
vs Dennis Buzukja clear UFC Fight Night Blanchfield vs Fiorot Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown (UFC Atlantic City) · March 26, 2024 · 2 reads since
strikingdecent grapplingdecent durabilitygood

He directly calls the fight for Matthews by a late rear-naked choke, crediting Matthews's pace and pressure, with a round guess offered as a method/round hedge rather than any hedge on who wins.

Matthews is a decent striker with good forward pressure and volume who counters well even when hit, and the body kick is his best feet weapon; his striking defense is not great and he does get hit, but he is credited with real durability. His grappling is decent, built around back control and the rear-naked choke. He is making his promotional debut here off two wins following his lone loss.

Strengthforward pressure and volume striking
Strengthcounter-striking ability
Strengthbody kick
Strengthgood durability
Strengthback control and rear-naked choke
Weaknessstriking defense is not great, gets hit often
chin · durable

Striking trend

Sig. strikes/min, last 3 fights · green = win
March 30, 2024 vs Dennis Buzukja — 5.79/min (L) Mar '24 February 15, 2025 vs Jose Delgado — 2.02/min (L) — only 3.0 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Feb '25 May 17, 2025 vs Yadier del Valle — 1.03/min (L) — only 2.9 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought May '25

Fight history

3 UFC bouts · newest first · opponent records as of fight night
L Yadier del Valle 0-0 walk-in Submission · R1 2:54 — UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · May 17, 2025
3/10Sig. strikes
9/12Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Jose Delgado 0-0 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 2:58 — UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · February 15, 2025
6/23Sig. strikes
21/40Absorbed
2/3Takedowns
0:47Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Dennis Buzukja 0-2 walk-in KO/TKO · R3 0:22 — UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · March 30, 2024
60/138Sig. strikes
83/201Absorbed
1/3Takedowns
0:40Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts

Walk-in records count UFC bouts in this database. For the pre-UFC career, see the record breakdown below or the Tapology button up top.

Record breakdown

UFC bouts in this database
0-3-0UFC record

Wins by method

KO/TKO 0
Submission 0
Decision 0
Other 0

Losses by method

KO/TKO 2
Submission 1
Decision 0
Other 0

Fights by organization

UFC 3

Showing UFC fights only — this fighter's full pre-UFC career hasn't been synced yet. It will fill in as the weekly career backfill reaches them.

Division context

vs. 134 qualified Featherweight fighters · tick = division mean
Striking volume /min 4.2 avg 3.6
Strikes absorbed /min 7.0 avg 3.6
Striking accuracy 40.4% avg 45.0%
Striking defense 55.3% avg 55.3%
Takedowns /15 min 2.8 avg 1.5
Takedown accuracy 50.0% avg 37.4%
Takedown defense 0.0% avg 60.2%
Sub attempts /15 min 0.0 avg 0.6
Control time 8.9% avg 20.1%

Headshot of Connor Matthews by UFC · Official UFC athlete photo (copyright UFC; not freely licensed) · Wikimedia Commons · flattened onto dark background, cropped/resized