Ignacio Bahamondes

Settles on Bahamondes, closing with a frank "lot of unknowns" admission, after noting Salikhov's layoff makes him hard to read.

Bahamondes is accurate and heavy-handed, counters well, fights comfortably from either stance, and kicks at every level while moving his head. On the ground he threatens front chokes off a sprawl and has a real submission arsenal, but the analyst calls his willingness to stay on the bottom a genuine red flag. He is picked here largely because Salikhov's recent form has fallen off a cliff.

picks weakly, might flip

Accurate with real pop and sound counters; his unusual length for the division is an asset two ways -- opponents have to travel farther to reach him, which sets up his counters, and his own legs can snap up to the head with far less effort than a shorter 155-pounder's. He switches stances freely, pushes good output and shows good head movement, mixing his kick levels well. Grappling-wise there's a lot to like -- okay takedown defense, a strong front-choke series off the sprawl, a deep submission arsenal -- but lately the analyst has noticed him choosing to play from his back, which he flags as a habit he'd rather not see continue. His last outing ended in a decision loss, which he chalks up to an off night rather than a slide.

Calls the striking 'very competitive' and ties the grappling edge to Bahamondes only 'unless he's pulling guard,' then layers on betting-line talk ('that line is flipping,' 'free money') before settling 'we're gonna take' Bahamondes.

A well-rounded striker who hits with precision and real force, keeps a heavy output, counters cleanly, swaps stances comfortably, moves his head well and kicks effectively to the body, legs and head. His grappling is explicitly described as having 'come along' and is now graded good: a passable takedown defense, a real threat with front chokes off his sprawl given his long frame, and a good, varied submission arsenal, including recent work from his back - though the analyst hopes he doesn't start pulling guard as a regular game plan.

The pick is named and restated twice, built on a stated case (momentum, a durability edge, a striking edge). A brief acknowledgment that Turner remains dangerous notes a real counter-path without reversing or softening the named winner.

138 calls Bahamondes a solid striker whose biggest asset is incredible accuracy, backed by good power, good volume, counter-striking from either stance, and excellent head movement, plus the ability to kick to all levels (though head kicks are discounted here given Turner's height). His takedown defense is decent, built around a sprawl into front chokes aided by long arms, which 138 calls a real, repeatable finishing path even while noting pure submissions like guillotines generally shouldn't work at this level.

He names this as the single toughest call of the night, admits he lacks enough to feel confident, and says siding with Bahamondes instead would be defensible -- genuine outcome doubt, not merely wager caution.

A solid, very accurate and powerful striker who can counter well, fight from either stance, and kick to every level thanks to his height and good head movement -- rated the more technical pure striker in this matchup. His takedown defense is solid, built mainly on sprawling into submission attempts (front chokes, anacondas, and an occasional guillotine the analyst doesn't rate highly as a choice). He also has a good clinch. As of 2024-09-11.

Commits decisively ('I've got to side with Bahamondes... all three paths are live for him') and gives a specific mechanism (outlast Giagos's fade, take over with striking, stop the takedowns). No hedge on the win itself.

A very good, solid striker who uses his size (6'3", 75.5" reach) to real effect: fights out of either stance, accurate, high volume and power, good head movement, good counter-striking, and kicks to all levels made easier to land on a shorter opponent. His grappling adds decent takedown defense and a real front-choke submission threat he has finished with before. 138 expects his striking to simply be too much for Giagos.

Explicit, repeated, named commitment: he states plainly that this is how he's picking Bahamondes to win (seg 6), and names the submission method and declares it his pick again (seg 8). A specific mechanism and method are given and held to: a striking exchange forces Klein to look for a takedown, Bahamondes sprawls and locks a front choke (DARS/anaconda), finishing by submission. He backs the pick with a real-money side wager on the exact submission method, which supports rather than undercuts the stated conviction.

Bahamondes is the longer, more varied striker: he uses his length well as a counter-striker with an extra window to operate in, is very accurate, has good volume and power, solid head movement for his size, fights well out of either stance, and kicks to all levels. He also has a good takedown defense with a live front-choke (DARS/anaconda) threat off a sprawl, which the analyst believes is his most likely route to a finish here.

Graded lean. The pick is announced with a stated shortfall in belief compared with other pickers ("not as confident" as them). That qualifier is on the win. Standing against it: his habit of siding with grapplers, and a late takedown he says could happen. His stand-up argument is strong ("all day" on the feet), but it is conditional on the fight staying upright.

The taller, longer man (listed at 6'3") in a striker-versus-grappler bout at a 160-pound catch weight, normally a lightweight. The analyst likes his length, multi-angle kicking and volume, and sees a kick catching Ogden on a shot as the likely route to a finish. The pick is a lean, with the caveat that he might be put down late in the round.