Kanako Murata

Repeatedly hedges on the win itself, framing the pick as reluctant and self-described as grasping, and explicitly concedes a real, largely unrebutted path to victory for the opponent. He also says he might personally back the opponent if the price moves further. Separately, he discloses a personal relationship (a named friend once coached the opponent) while picking against her -- per the standing rule that disclosure is recorded but does not itself set confidence; the coinflip call rests on the outcome-level hedging above, independent of the disclosure.

Coming back from roughly a two-year layoff tied to an arm injury. A very strong, high-level wrestler who gets takedowns reliably and hunts wrestling-style chokes (arm-triangle, back) once on top, with good control to hold position for long stretches. Her striking is only decent and her striking defense is also poor, though the threat of her wrestling helps set up what offense she does land. Picked, reluctantly, as the fighter who takes it down and controls a decision.