Kody Steele

He closes by naming Steele as the pick, built on Steele's grappling edge over Gugnon's decent ground game.

Good striker offensively with heavy, rapid-fire hooks and solid dirty boxing/body work; durable enough to absorb counters while swinging. His real advantage is grappling -- a very good (board: solid) takedown game with strong mat returns that set up back takes, which the analyst explicitly calls the deciding factor in picking him over Gugnon.

says outright it could go either way; leans only on travel logistics, not a skill gap

Kody Steele is a good, durable pocket boxer whose dirty boxing and combinations work best up close, but he struggled with range in his last fight and may have the same trouble against a longer, kick-heavy opponent here. He is also a solid grappler in his own right, landing good-volume takedowns, mat returns, and back-takes. The matchup is read as close and competitive, turning on who controls range.

He states directly that Steele 'wins at a high clip' if the grappling comes into play, with only a passing nod to the experience gap, not a reversal of the pick.

Steele is a good, fundamentally sound striker -- dirty boxing is his best tool, with basic (in the sense of textbook, not sloppy) combinations -- who is durable and can be countered when he chains hooks together. His grappling is called solid and is the analyst's clear path to victory: very good takedowns set up off his hands, repeated mat returns, and back-taking whether on the mat or against the cage. The analyst states plainly that if Steele grapples he should win at a very high clip.