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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator
Noah Gugnon
Lightweight · “Guns”

Noah Gugnon

1-1-0
Striker Hard To Take Down
—Height
—Reach
—Stance
26Age
0KO wins
1Sub wins
100.0%Finish rate
2:37Avg fight

Skill profile

Rated 0–100 · where 138 MMA has read him, his grades and tags set each axis and the stats only nudge inside his band · stats alone where he is silent · the rim is reserved for specialists
Striking — Average, rated 57 of 100 · 138 MMA: striking good · Oct 2026 · stats read 43 → nudged -5 inside the band · claims striking power +1, kicking +2, pressure +1 (+4) Accuracy — Below avg, rated 44 of 100 · claims counter striking +1 (+1) Striking D — Below avg, rated 40 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Durability — Weak, rated 16 of 100 · claims chin +1 (+2) Wrestling — Weak, rated 16 of 100 · claims td offense +1 (+2) TD Defense — Below avg, rated 44 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Grappling — Below avg, rated 43 of 100 · 138 MMA: grappling decent · Oct 2026 · stats read 44 → nudged +2 inside the band · claims ground and pound +2 (+2) Control — Below avg, rated 42 of 100 · claims top control -1, ground and pound +2 (-1) Striking Accuracy Striking D Durability Wrestling TD Defense Grappling Control
striking good
2 analyst reads graded this phase
  • good UFC 333 Full Card Preview & Predictions · October 17, 2026 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Medic vs Rodriguez Full Card Preview & Predictions · July 26, 2026 watch ↗
grappling decent
2 analyst reads graded this phase
  • decent UFC 333 Full Card Preview & Predictions · October 17, 2026 watch ↗
  • decent UFC Fight Night Medic vs Rodriguez Full Card Preview & Predictions · July 26, 2026 watch ↗
wrestling not yet read
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read
striking good 2 reads
grappling decent 2 reads
wrestling not yet read
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read

138 MMA anchors Striking, Grappling · his tags and claims adjust Accuracy, Durability, Wrestling, Control · stats alone on Striking D, TD Defense.

Built on 5 minutes of tracked cage time across 2 statted fights — every axis is held down until there is more tape, so read this as a sketch rather than a verdict.

Striker average striking — rates 57 of 100 · 138 MMA: striking good · Oct 2026
Hard To Take Down below avg td defense — rates 44 of 100 among UFC veterans
Career rates — the raw numbers behind the chart
Sig. strikes landed / min6.86
Sig. strikes absorbed / min5.9
Striking accuracy52.9%
Striking defense56.3%
Knockdowns / 15 min0.0
Takedowns / 15 min0.0
Takedown accuracy—
Takedown defense66.7%
Sub attempts / 15 min2.86
Control time12.7%
Record vs .500+ opponents0-0

Insider info

2 analyst reads · 138 MMA · our paraphrase, never his words
vs Kody Steele clear UFC 333 Full Card Preview & Predictions · October 17, 2026
strikinggood grapplingdecent

He closes by naming Steele as the pick, built on Steele's grappling edge over Gugnon's decent ground game.

Good striker with a slight edge over Steele on the feet; unloads hard once he backs opponents to the cage and fires back when hit. Can mix in takedowns and finish with heavy ground and pound, but is only a decent grappler overall and is clearly outmatched there by Steele.

Strengthpower on the feet, especially backing opponents to the cage
Strengthfires back when hit
Strengthsolid leg kick
Strengthkiller instinct finishing on the ground
Strengthdecent takedowns to set up ground and pound
Weaknessgrappling is only decent, not his best phase
Weaknessoutmatched on the mat by Steele
vs Milos Janicic coinflip UFC Fight Night Medic vs Rodriguez Full Card Preview & Predictions · July 26, 2026 · 1 read since
strikinggood grapplingdecent

Calls it only a 'slight edge' and calls the fight a hard one for him to read at all. Raises an unrelated matchmaking worry before still landing on Janicic.

Gugnon rates as a powerful, good striker who drives opponents to the fence and unloads there, firing right back even while absorbing punishment, which the analyst calls impressive. He throws a strong leg kick and is read as someone actively hunting a finish. His grappling rates decent, with heavy work on top once he gets there, though his takedowns themselves are only so-so. He gets credit for the likelier first clean shot, even though the analyst stops short of picking him outright.

Strengthpower and aggression, backs opponents to the cage
Strengthfires back even when hit
Strengthheavy ground-and-pound on top
Strengthactively hunts finishes

Fight history

2 UFC bouts · newest first · opponent records as of fight night
L Kody Steele 1-1 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 3:54 — UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · October 24, 2026
31/57Sig. strikes
25/52Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Milos Janicic 19-3 walk-in Submission · R1 1:21 — UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez · August 1, 2026
5/11Sig. strikes
6/19Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:40Control
0Knockdowns
1Sub attempts

Walk-in records count UFC bouts in this database. For the pre-UFC career, see the record breakdown below or the Tapology button up top.

Record breakdown

UFC bouts in this database
1-1-0UFC record

Wins by method

KO/TKO 0
Submission 1
Decision 0
Other 0

Losses by method

KO/TKO 1
Submission 0
Decision 0
Other 0

Fights by organization

UFC 2

Showing UFC fights only — this fighter's full pre-UFC career hasn't been synced yet. It will fill in as the weekly career backfill reaches them.

Division context

vs. 195 qualified Lightweight fighters · tick = division mean
Striking volume /min 6.9 avg 3.5
Strikes absorbed /min 5.9 avg 3.6
Striking accuracy 52.9% avg 44.0%
Striking defense 56.3% avg 55.7%
Takedowns /15 min 0.0 avg 1.6
Takedown defense 66.7% avg 61.1%
Sub attempts /15 min 2.9 avg 0.6
Control time 12.7% avg 21.3%
Finish rate 100.0% avg 50.7%

Headshot of Noah Gugnon by UFC · Official UFC athlete photo (copyright UFC; not freely licensed) · Wikimedia Commons · flattened onto dark background, cropped/resized