Manel Kape

States he is "less confident than I was" on a prior similar pick.

Rated among the fastest strikers in the UFC: lightning-fast hands, very good movement and feints, real power, and sharp shot selection. The known drawback is being too patient at times, which can give away rounds even though his speed also lets him end fights in an instant. His grappling is secondary but capable -- he can mix in takedowns, has a good cage push with strong knees, good takedown defense and an excellent sprawl.

self-described 'on an island' contrarian pick; explicitly allows he could get 'flatlined' if his brawl plan fails

A fast, technical striker who sets shots up with feints, hits hard and picks his shots -- among the quickest strikers the analyst names in the division. His weakness is that he can be too deliberate/patient, which has put him behind in fights before. His grappling is good rather than a focus: he mixes in takedowns, pushes hard in the cage with heavy knees, and has good takedown defense anchored by an excellent sprawl. His path to victory is keeping the fight at distance as a clean striking match.

Rates his own conviction as low and frames it explicitly as a value play on a big underdog's price, not a confident read.

A very fast, very technical striker who sets up his offense with feints and good footwork, with a recurring flaw: he can be too patient, waiting for counters rather than initiating, which has caused him problems when opponents don't give him the openings he wants. His takedown defense is genuinely good — he has stopped a wide range of opponents' takedowns — though he rarely uses his own, with occasional cage pressure and knees.

Direct underdog pick named twice ('Bruno Silva is my pick'), built on a specific pattern (Kape's recurring passivity) plus Silva's own finishing instinct and grappling threat, with no hedge on the win itself.

Solid striker, lightning fast, with good feints and movement, whose main flaw is a tendency to be far too patient -- especially against a grappling threat -- which the analyst says has cost him by not doing enough in fights. Decent wrestler who mixes in takedowns, cage pressure and solid knees. Note: an earlier card graded his striking 'elite'; this video calls it 'solid,' consistent with the most recent prior read rather than a new drop voiced in this video.

picks Mokaev to win 'by decision or disqualification,' built on Mokaev sticking to a wrestling plan that frustrates Kape; the hedge is over the exact method (decision vs. a DQ off a knee on a downed man), a method hedge rather than an outcome hedge, and he separately warns not to wager on the DQ outcome specifically rather than on the fight overall.

A high-level, very fast striker who sets strikes up well with feints but can be too patient, repeatedly passing on volume while hunting for a single highlight-reel finish -- a tendency this read says costs him minutes on the cards. His wrestling is only decent, built around mixing in takedowns and a cage push into knees, and is rated clearly behind Mokaev's.

a repeated, self-aware underdog pick built around getting plus-money value, not pure conviction; he also floats a hedge prop on the other side, which lowers it to lean rather than clear.

Rematch after a close split decision the analyst believes went the right way. A very high-level, exceptionally fast striker who sets up strikes with feints, though that feint-heavy approach can make him too patient at times. Wrestling is secondary -- decent, used mainly to cage-push into heavy knees rather than to control or finish on the mat. Popular partly for his wild-card personality; rated live but not the pick.

He states Kape is the pick and calls him the deserved favorite, reasoning that the step up to a ranked, high-level striker is too much too soon for a short-notice, undefeated prospect. He also flags, in the same breath, that Kape's own patience could let dos Santos's volume take over if the fight drags -- a real counter-scenario acknowledged but not treated as reason to hedge the pick itself.

Called a high-level striker and one of the fastest the analyst has seen, with good movement and strikes set up by feints that draw a reaction one way before he lands elsewhere; his kicks are described as absolutely devastating. His cage work is flagged as an underrated part of his game -- a strong cage push and knees driven with real hip power. His one named flaw is being too patient at times.

'I'm gonna lean [Kape]' is repeated twice; he also says explicitly he 'won't fault' viewers for picking Perez, an acknowledged live alternative that keeps this at lean rather than clear despite his enthusiasm about Kape's hand speed.

A high-level, extremely fast striker who sets up his strikes well and moves well, though the analyst says he can be too content to stay patient on the outside. He also mixes in his own takedowns and can do real damage with knees once he gets an opponent against the cage. The analyst says he thinks Kape has quietly been fighting better than his record suggests lately.

Heavily hedged underdog pick: 'I might be wrong,' 'if pressed I'll take Dvorak,' an 'ever so slight' lean. Separately recommends an under-2.5-rounds prop as a distinct method/total play, not part of the outcome read.

An extremely high-level, fast and explosive striker who sets up his strikes with feints and footwork and can land a flying knee with no setup at all. He can go low-volume at times, standing and looking for openings rather than pressing the pace, which the analyst ties to some of his closer decision losses. His pre-UFC cage-push game from fighting in a ring has not clearly carried over to the Octagon.