Skip to content
UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator
Alexandre Pantoja
Flyweight · “The Cannibal”

Alexandre Pantoja

30-6-0 UFC 14-5-0
Elite Grappler Submission Threat Submission Efficiency Chain Wrestling
5'5"Height
67"Reach
OrthodoxStance
36Age
2KO wins
6Sub wins
57.1%Finish rate
12:37Avg fight

Skill profile

Rated 0–100 · where 138 MMA has read him, his grades and tags set each axis and the stats only nudge inside his band · stats alone where he is silent · the rim is reserved for specialists
Striking — Average, rated 69 of 100 · 138 MMA: striking good · Sep 2026 · stats read 73 → nudged +6 inside the band · claims striking power +1, striking technique +1, kicking +1, hand speed +1, pressure +1 (+6) Accuracy — Above avg, rated 82 of 100 · claims striking technique +1 (+2) Striking D — Weak, rated 17 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Durability — Average, rated 62 of 100 · 138 MMA: durability good · Jun 2025 · stats read 60 → nudged +1 inside the band · tag chin: durable (+4) Wrestling — Elite, rated 95 of 100 · claims td offense +3 (+6) TD Defense — Average, rated 57 of 100 · claims getup +1 (+2) Grappling — Elite, rated 100 of 100 · 138 MMA: grappling elite · Sep 2026 · stats read 86 → nudged -1 inside the band · tag sub threat: elite (+12) · claims sub offense +2, ground and pound +1 (+5) Control — Elite, rated 96 of 100 · claims top control +3, ground and pound +1 (+12) Striking Accuracy Striking D Durability Wrestling TD Defense Grappling Control
striking good
6 analyst reads graded this phase
  • good UFC 331 Full Card Preview & Predictions · September 16, 2026 watch ↗
  • solid UFC 323 · December 2, 2025 watch ↗
  • solid UFC 317 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · June 24, 2025 watch ↗
  • solid UFC 301 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · May 1, 2024 watch ↗
  • great UFC 296 Full Card Breakdown, Prediction, & Analysis · December 12, 2023 watch ↗
  • solid UFC 290 Full Card Breakdown, Analysis, And Predictions · July 4, 2023 watch ↗
grappling elite
4 analyst reads graded this phase
  • elite UFC 331 Full Card Preview & Predictions · September 16, 2026 watch ↗
  • elite UFC 323 · December 2, 2025 watch ↗
  • elite UFC 317 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · June 24, 2025 watch ↗
  • elite UFC 296 Full Card Breakdown, Prediction, & Analysis · December 12, 2023 watch ↗
wrestling not yet read
cardio not yet read
durability good
1 analyst read graded this phase
  • good UFC 317 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · June 24, 2025 watch ↗
striking good 6 reads
grappling elite 4 reads
wrestling not yet read
cardio not yet read
durability good 1 read

138 MMA anchors Striking, Durability, Grappling · his tags and claims adjust Accuracy, Wrestling, TD Defense, Control · stats alone on Striking D.

Elite Grappler 138 MMA · Sep 2026 grades his grappling elite
Submission Threat 138 MMA · Dec 2025 tags sub threat: elite
Submission Efficiency 6 submission wins from 14 attempts
Chain Wrestling 45 takedowns from 102 attempts · 2.8 landed per 15 min
Career rates — the raw numbers behind the chart
Sig. strikes landed / min4.54
Sig. strikes absorbed / min4.23
Striking accuracy50.5%
Striking defense48.4%
Knockdowns / 15 min0.25
Takedowns / 15 min2.82
Takedown accuracy44.1%
Takedown defense69.2%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.88
Control time32.7%
Record vs .500+ opponents9-5

Insider info

6 analyst reads · 138 MMA · our paraphrase, never his words
vs Joshua Van lean UFC 331 Full Card Preview & Predictions · September 16, 2026
strikinggood grapplingelite durabilitygood

admits that a loss is possible — "Absolutely"

A forward-pressing striker who works the body from unconventional angles, but the stated centerpiece is his grappling: a varied takedown arsenal, elite back control, a dangerous rear-naked choke, and a relentless motor that keeps winning rounds through fatigue. He is returning from a dislocated elbow suffered in their first meeting.

Strengthforward pressure and body work from odd angles
Strengthelite, varied takedowns
Strengthelite back control and finishing choke
Strengthfights through fatigue
vs Joshua Van clear UFC 323 · December 2, 2025 · 1 read since
strikingsolid grapplingelite durabilitygood

picks Pantoja on a specific grappling mismatch he calls 'leagues above' Van's, explicitly disclosing he personally likes both fighters (bias disclosure, not a hedge on the win)

As of 2025-12-02, a solid striker in his own right -- good forward pressure, a nasty calf kick, body work with punches and kicks, and quick strikes from odd angles that often serve as setups to close distance for a takedown. His real strength is excellent grappling: he fights for takedowns however he has to get them (including simply pulling opponents to the mat rather than relying on traditional entries), and his back-take ability and rear-naked-choke finishing are called among the best in the division, if not ever. He keeps good ground-and-pound, scrambles and transitions, and is noted for fighting through fatigue without slowing down.

Strengthforward pressure
Strengthcalf kick
Strengthbody work / strikes from odd angles
Strengthrelentless takedown pursuit
Strengthelite back takes and submissions
Strengthground-and-pound / scrambles / transitions
Strengthfighting through fatigue
sub threat · elite
vs Kai Kara-France clear UFC 317 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · June 24, 2025 · 2 reads since
strikingsolid grapplingelite durabilitygood

He states plainly he cannot go against Pantoja here, calls him durable enough to survive on the feet, and closes with a flat pick over five rounds; the only hedge is a general age/durability caveat, not a qualifier on the win itself.

Pantoja is the flyweight champion in a rematch with Kara-France, the first meeting having gone to him by decision. The analyst frames him as a solid striker whose boxing-style pressure and body work are mainly there to set up his real weapon: relentless takedown pursuit, excellent back control and a feared rear-naked-choke finish. He is also credited with fighting through fatigue, though the analyst flags that his durability is likely to fade with age eventually.

Strengthsolid striker, brings pressure forward with a sharp calf kick
Strengthattacks the body using both his hands and his kicks
Strengthelite/excellent grappler who fights relentlessly for takedowns
Strengthvery good back takes with excellent control
Strengthrear-naked-choke specialist
Strengthgood ground-and-pound
Strengthamong the best scramblers in the division
Strengthfights through fatigue and has good transitions (see focus-tag flag)
chin · durablesub threat · elite
vs Steve Erceg emphatic UFC 301 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · May 1, 2024 · 3 reads since
strikingsolid grapplingelite

Stacks superlative conviction with zero hedge on the outcome, calling the champion simply too good to lose here and brushing aside any opponent threat as something he expects to be fought through rather than something he fears.

Pantoja, defending his flyweight title, is a solid striker with real forward pressure the analyst expects him to sustain across a full five-round pace without issue, mixing in good leg kicks and body work with fairly good long, straight power shots. His grappling is rated even higher -- among the best in the division if not the whole promotion, with excellent transitions, good sweeps/scrambles/ground-and-pound, and a rear-naked-choke finishing specialty once he gets to the back. The analyst calls him a betting favorite people often doubt for no good reason, pointing to repeated wins over elite competition.

Strengthforward pressure, full-fight pace
Strengthgood leg kicks and body work
Strengthgood power shots
Strengthelite-level grappling and transitions
Strengthgood sweeps/scrambles/ground-and-pound
Strengthrear-naked-choke finishing specialist
Strengthproven against elite competition
vs Brandon Royval clear UFC 296 Full Card Breakdown, Prediction, & Analysis · December 12, 2023 · 4 reads since
strikinggreat grapplingelite

won before, only improved

Our paraphrase: this is a rematch Pantoja already won; the analyst calls him great on the feet (forward pressure, body work, clean straight shots) and excellent in the grappling (ground-and-pound, excellent scrambling, a back-control/rear-naked-choke specialty the analyst says ends fights once he gets there). He has 'only gotten better' since the first fight, which anchors the pick.

Strengthgreat striking: forward pressure, body work, clean straight shots
Strengthexcellent grappling: strong ground-and-pound, excellent scrambling
Strengthrear-naked-choke specialist once he takes the back
vs Brandon Moreno clear UFC 290 Full Card Breakdown, Analysis, And Predictions · July 4, 2023 · 5 reads since
strikingsolid

Names Pantoja as the pick and says he's confident in it, betting against a public line that treats Pantoja as an underdog despite a 2-0 head-to-head record, while naming an explicit condition (establishing the calf kick early) that, if unmet, cedes the final two rounds to Moreno entirely.

Pantoja (the board's own spelling; rendered phonetically by ASR as 'pantosia'/'pantosha') is rated a good striker whose calf kick caused real problems in the prior meeting, backed by forward pressure, long straights, and quick feet. On the ground he is called spectacular -- excellent transitions and scrambles, with a specialty taking the back for the rear-naked choke.

Strengthnasty calf kick, previously effective against Moreno
Strengthforward pressure, long straights, quick feet
Strengthspectacular transitions and scrambles
Strengthback-take-to-rear-naked-choke specialty
sub threat · elite

Striking trend

Sig. strikes/min, last 8 fights · green = win
July 30, 2022 vs Alex Perez — 5.27/min (W) — only 1.5 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Jul '22 July 8, 2023 vs Brandon Moreno — 5.16/min (W) Jul '23 December 16, 2023 vs Brandon Royval — 3.8/min (W) Dec '23 May 4, 2024 vs Steve Erceg — 5.0/min (W) May '24 December 7, 2024 vs Kai Asakura — 4.52/min (W) Dec '24 June 28, 2025 vs Kai Kara-France — 3.52/min (W) Jun '25 December 6, 2025 vs Joshua Van — 13.85/min (L) — only 0.4 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Dec '25 September 19, 2026 vs Joshua Van — 5.88/min (L) Sep '26

Fight history

19 UFC bouts · newest first · opponent records as of fight night
L Joshua Van 17-2 walk-in TITLE Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00 — UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · September 19, 2026
147/284Sig. strikes
181/305Absorbed
5/18Takedowns
9:11Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Joshua Van 15-2 walk-in TITLE KO/TKO · R1 0:26 — UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · December 6, 2025
6/11Sig. strikes
2/4Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Kai Kara-France 25-11 walk-in TITLE Submission · R3 1:55 — UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · June 28, 2025
42/76Sig. strikes
38/67Absorbed
3/6Takedowns
7:20Control
0Knockdowns
2Sub attempts
W Kai Asakura 20-4 walk-in TITLE Submission · R2 2:05 — UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · December 7, 2024
32/52Sig. strikes
17/29Absorbed
3/7Takedowns
2:46Control
0Knockdowns
1Sub attempts
W Steve Erceg 12-1 walk-in TITLE Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00 — UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 4, 2024
125/242Sig. strikes
111/212Absorbed
9/19Takedowns
8:15Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Brandon Royval 15-6 walk-in TITLE Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00 — UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · December 16, 2023
95/156Sig. strikes
111/204Absorbed
8/14Takedowns
15:51Control
0Knockdowns
1Sub attempts
W Brandon Moreno 21-6-2 walk-in TITLE Decision - Split · R5 5:00 — UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · July 8, 2023
129/274Sig. strikes
147/245Absorbed
6/11Takedowns
8:26Control
1Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Alex Perez 24-6 walk-in Submission · R1 1:31 — UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · July 30, 2022
8/12Sig. strikes
10/14Absorbed
1/1Takedowns
1:06Control
0Knockdowns
1Sub attempts
W Brandon Royval 12-5 walk-in Submission · R2 1:46 — UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · August 21, 2021
22/40Sig. strikes
17/61Absorbed
3/6Takedowns
2:51Control
0Knockdowns
2Sub attempts
W Manel Kape 15-4 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · February 6, 2021
74/149Sig. strikes
49/91Absorbed
0/1Takedowns
0:24Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Askar Askarov 12-0-1 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2 · July 18, 2020
32/62Sig. strikes
41/63Absorbed
1/2Takedowns
2:17Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Matt Schnell 14-4 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 4:17 — UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The Korean Zombie · December 21, 2019
34/62Sig. strikes
20/52Absorbed
1/1Takedowns
1:12Control
1Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Deiveson Figueiredo 15-1 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar · July 27, 2019
61/151Sig. strikes
67/113Absorbed
2/10Takedowns
1:14Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Wilson Reis 23-9 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 2:58 — UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2 · April 13, 2019
23/33Sig. strikes
1/6Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:14Control
1Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Yuta Sasaki 4-4 walk-in Submission · R1 2:18 — UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio · November 17, 2018
4/7Sig. strikes
7/11Absorbed
0/1Takedowns
0:38Control
0Knockdowns
2Sub attempts
W Brandon Moreno 14-4 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman · May 19, 2018
79/168Sig. strikes
45/133Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
1:12Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Dustin Ortiz 17-7 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou · January 20, 2018
19/49Sig. strikes
36/80Absorbed
1/1Takedowns
7:18Control
0Knockdowns
2Sub attempts
W Neil Seery 16-12 walk-in Submission · R3 2:31 — UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio · July 16, 2017
119/227Sig. strikes
82/183Absorbed
1/1Takedowns
4:26Control
1Knockdowns
1Sub attempts
W Eric Shelton 10-2 walk-in Decision - Split · R3 5:00 — UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena · January 28, 2017
37/99Sig. strikes
32/93Absorbed
1/3Takedowns
3:48Control
0Knockdowns
2Sub attempts

Walk-in records count UFC bouts in this database. For the pre-UFC career, see the record breakdown below or the Tapology button up top.

Record breakdown

Full pro career (Wikipedia, results only)
30-6-0Pro record
Black House (formerly), American Top Team (2018–present)Gym / team

Wins by method

KO/TKO 8
Submission 12
Decision 10
Other 0

Losses by method

KO/TKO 1
Submission 0
Decision 5
Other 0

Fights by organization

UFC 18
Shooto Brazil 7
Watch Out Combat Show 4
RFA vs. Legacy FC 1
RFA 1
MMA Fight Show 1
Fatality Arena Fight Night 1
World Fighting Combat 1

+ 2 more organizations in the full career list

Full career — 36 fights, every organization
OpponentMethodEventOrg RdTime
L Joshua Van TKO (arm injury) UFC 323
December 6, 2025
UFC 1 0:26
W Kai Kara-France Submission (rear-naked choke) UFC 317
June 28, 2025
UFC 3 1:54
W Kai Asakura Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) UFC 310
December 7, 2024
UFC 2 2:05
W Steve Erceg Decision (unanimous) UFC 301
May 4, 2024
UFC 5 5:00
W Brandon Royval Decision (unanimous) UFC 296
December 16, 2023
UFC 5 5:00
W Brandon Moreno Decision (split) UFC 290
July 8, 2023
UFC 5 5:00
W Alex Perez Submission (neck crank) UFC 277
July 30, 2022
UFC 1 1:31
W Brandon Royval Submission (rear-naked choke) UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Gastelum
August 21, 2021
UFC 2 1:46
W Manel Kape Decision (unanimous) UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov
February 6, 2021
UFC 3 5:00
L Askar Askarov Decision (unanimous) UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2
July 19, 2020
UFC 3 5:00
W Matt Schnell KO (punches) UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The Korean Zombie
December 21, 2019
UFC 1 4:17
L Deiveson Figueiredo Decision (unanimous) UFC 240
July 27, 2019
UFC 3 5:00
W Wilson Reis TKO (punches) UFC 236
April 13, 2019
UFC 1 2:58
W Ulka Sasaki Submission (rear-naked choke) UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio
November 17, 2018
UFC 1 2:18
W Brandon Moreno Decision (unanimous) UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
May 19, 2018
UFC 3 5:00
L Dustin Ortiz Decision (unanimous) UFC 220
January 20, 2018
UFC 3 5:00
W Neil Seery Submission (rear-naked choke) UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio
July 16, 2017
UFC 3 2:31
W Eric Shelton Decision (split) UFC on Fox: Shevchenko vs. Peña
January 28, 2017
UFC 3 5:00
W Damacio Page Technical Submission (triangle choke) RFA vs. Legacy FC 1
August 5, 2015
RFA vs. Legacy FC 2 5:00
W Matt Manzanares Submission (rear-naked choke) RFA 18
December 9, 2014
RFA 2 2:38
W Lincoln de Sá Oliveira Decision (unanimous) Shooto Brazil 45
December 20, 2013
Shooto Brazil 3 5:00
W Daniel Araújo Submission (rear-naked choke) Watch Out Combat Show 31
November 1, 2013
Watch Out Combat Show 1 2:13
W Rodrigo Favacho dos Santos Submission (rear-naked choke) MMA Fight Show 1
March 16, 2013
MMA Fight Show 1 4:29
W Lincoln de Sá Oliveira Decision (unanimous) Shooto Brazil 32
July 14, 2012
Shooto Brazil 3 5:00
W Sandro Gemaque de Souza KO (punches) Fatality Arena Fight Night 1
December 9, 2011
Fatality Arena Fight Night 3 3:58
W Samuel de Souza TKO (elbows and punches) World Fighting Combat 3
December 22, 2010
World Fighting Combat 1 1:23
W Bruno Azevedo Submission (rear-naked choke) Shooto Brazil 18
September 17, 2010
Shooto Brazil 1 —
L Jussier Formiga Decision (unanimous) Shooto Brazil 16
June 12, 2010
Shooto Brazil 3 5:00
W Ralph Alves Decision (split) Watch Out Combat Show 6
December 12, 2009
Watch Out Combat Show 3 5:00
W Magno Alves KO (punch) Watch Out Combat Show 5
September 27, 2009
Watch Out Combat Show 1 —
W Michael William Costa Decision (unanimous) Shooto Brazil 13
August 27, 2009
Shooto Brazil 3 5:00
W Bruno Moreno TKO (doctor stoppage) Shooto Brazil 12
May 30, 2009
Shooto Brazil 3 4:09
W Gabriel Wolff TKO (doctor stoppage) Shooto Brazil 11
March 28, 2009
Shooto Brazil 2 5:00
L William Vianna Decision (split) Watch Out Combat Show 2
September 25, 2008
Watch Out Combat Show 3 5:00
W Peterson Malfort TKO (punches) Rocinha Fight
August 2, 2008
Rocinha Fight 2 —
W Antônio Carlos Submission (armbar) Vila Fight
July 21, 2007
Vila Fight 1 —

Career history from the fighter's Wikipedia record table (Alexandre Pantoja) — results only, no strike stats; UFC bouts are marked and carry full stats in the fight history above.

Division context

vs. 67 qualified Flyweight fighters · tick = division mean
Striking volume /min 4.5 avg 3.4
Strikes absorbed /min 4.2 avg 3.3
Striking accuracy 50.5% avg 44.9%
Striking defense 48.4% avg 56.2%
Takedowns /15 min 2.8 avg 1.7
Takedown accuracy 44.1% avg 36.0%
Takedown defense 69.2% avg 60.8%
Sub attempts /15 min 0.9 avg 0.7
Control time 32.7% avg 19.8%
Finish rate 57.1% avg 45.9%

Headshot of Alexandre Pantoja by Sexto Round · CC BY 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons · cropped and resized

Hero photo of Alexandre Pantoja by Sexto Round · CC BY 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons