Mateus Mendonca

firmly names Mendonca as his pick and expects a finish rather than a decision; a method guess (TKO) does not count as a hedge on the win.

Mateus Mendonca carries a real physical advantage in this matchup (height and reach) and is coming off an instant-knockout win with all the momentum. He has good power striking with kicks to all levels, can initiate or counter, and throws good combinations, though he can get drawn into brawls and is open to counters himself. His grappling has powerful slamming takedowns and constant submission attacks, but he previously lost a fight by refusing to release a bad leglock, and he can fade late due to his high pace.

Picks a side mainly because the format calls for one, admits he does not know how the opponent looks at the new weight, says he prefers the under to either side, and separately says the price does not justify a moneyline bet on his own pick. Real stated uncertainty layered on top of price caution.

Also new to flyweight after fighting at bantamweight. A powerful, well-rounded striker with kicks to every level and combinations, able to initiate or counter, but prone to getting wild and hittable in a brawl -- his only career loss came exactly that way. On the ground he is a big, aggressive slammer who attacks submissions hard once he lands a takedown, usually off the back of his own strikes; his downside is fading late after pushing an early pace. Picked to finish the fight via power and submission pressure.

He says outright he wants to pick Mendonca, that it is 'way too close' to bet, and settles on Basharat 'just the tiniest bit' on a polish/well-roundedness argument -- an explicit self-rated low-confidence pick, not a reasoned-but-hedged one.

An aggressive, all-action striker who can initiate or counter equally well and controls pace with wild, powerful striking plus a real BJJ base; the analyst's two stated knocks are sloppy takedowns and poor striking defense, which he argues are a bad combination against a clean counter-striker like Basharat.