Nate Maness

He lays out a stylistic plan -- deny the grappling entries and win the exchanges on the feet given Flick's recent durability trouble -- and commits to Maness outright; he notes the betting line is wide but does not hedge the win itself.

Our words: a complete mixed martial artist capable of winning this fight in more than one way, though the analyst expects defense and feet to matter more here than his own shot selection. Good striking with a tidy jab and crisp boxing-style combination work, plus good counter striking. The game plan the analyst lays out: stuff Flick's attempts and light him up standing, exploiting Flick's recently shaky durability.

Picks a side mainly because the format calls for one, admits he does not know how the opponent looks at the new weight, says he prefers the under to either side, and separately says the price does not justify a moneyline bet on his own pick. Real stated uncertainty layered on top of price caution.

Moving down to flyweight for the first time after mostly fighting at bantamweight (one prior fight at the new weight). A good striker with clean boxing combinations and a strong jab; his counters are called probably his best tool in this matchup because the opponent gets wild when pressured. He rarely uses his wrestling offensively anymore, but when he does shoot he is effective, with very good ground-and-pound; his takedown defense is called pretty good overall despite one recent instance of being taken down.

explicitly tells viewers to hold off wagering until after weigh-ins, and says if Maness looks drained on his first cut to flyweight he would not touch this fight at all

Making his first move down to flyweight after fighting as high as lightweight, he is described as unusually big and long for the division, which the analyst expects to give him a real size and reach edge along with the better boxing in the matchup. His one real takedown vulnerability is to a specific training partner of Ulanbekov's, who happens to share his camp -- otherwise he is typically hard to take down. The whole pick is explicitly conditional on how he looks at the weigh-in; if the cut looks bad, the analyst says he would not bet this fight at all.