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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator
Rafael Cerqueira
Light Heavyweight · “The Lion”

Rafael Cerqueira

0-4-0
Precision Striker Submission Grappler Suspect Chin
6'3"Height
76"Reach
SouthpawStance
36Age
0KO wins
0Sub wins
0%Finish rate
4:39Avg fight

Skill profile

Rated 0–100 · where 138 MMA has read him, his grades and tags set each axis and the stats only nudge inside his band · stats alone where he is silent · the rim is reserved for specialists
Striking — Below avg, rated 39 of 100 · 138 MMA: striking decent · Nov 2025 · stats read 21 → nudged -6 inside the band · tag ko power: good (+3) · claims striking power +1, kicking +1 (+3) Accuracy — Average, rated 46 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Striking D — Weak, rated 13 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Durability — Below avg, rated 26 of 100 · 138 MMA tag chin: suspect · Aug 2025 · stats read 3 → nudged -8 inside the band · claims chin -1 (-2) Wrestling — Weak, rated 12 of 100 · claims td offense +1 (+2) TD Defense — Weak, rated 8 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Grappling — Below avg, rated 43 of 100 · 138 MMA: grappling decent · Nov 2025 · stats read 26 → nudged -5 inside the band · tag sub threat: good (+3) · claims sub offense +2, ground and pound +2 (+6) Control — Below avg, rated 26 of 100 · claims ground and pound +2 (+3) Striking Accuracy Striking D Durability Wrestling TD Defense Grappling Control
striking decent
4 analyst reads graded this phase
  • decent UFC Fight Night Tsarukyan vs Hooker Analysis, Breakdown and Predictions · November 18, 2025 watch ↗
  • decent UFC Fight Night Dolidze vs Hernandez Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · August 4, 2025 watch ↗
  • decent UFC Fight Night Cejudo vs Yadong Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · February 18, 2025 watch ↗
  • decent UFC 308 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · October 24, 2024 watch ↗
grappling decent
4 analyst reads graded this phase
  • decent UFC Fight Night Tsarukyan vs Hooker Analysis, Breakdown and Predictions · November 18, 2025 watch ↗
  • decent UFC Fight Night Dolidze vs Hernandez Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · August 4, 2025 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Cejudo vs Yadong Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · February 18, 2025 watch ↗
  • good UFC 308 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · October 24, 2024 watch ↗
wrestling not yet read
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read
striking decent 4 reads
grappling decent 4 reads
wrestling not yet read
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read

138 MMA anchors Striking, Durability, Grappling · his tags and claims adjust Wrestling, Control · stats alone on Accuracy, Striking D, TD Defense.

Built on 18 minutes of tracked cage time across 4 statted fights — every axis is held down until there is more tape, so read this as a sketch rather than a verdict.

Precision Striker average accuracy — rates 46 of 100 among UFC veterans
Submission Grappler below avg grappling — rates 43 of 100 · 138 MMA: grappling decent · Nov 2025
Suspect Chin 138 MMA · Aug 2025 tags chin: suspect
Career rates — the raw numbers behind the chart
Sig. strikes landed / min1.56
Sig. strikes absorbed / min5.05
Striking accuracy43.9%
Striking defense36.9%
Knockdowns / 15 min0.0
Takedowns / 15 min0.0
Takedown accuracy—
Takedown defense36.4%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.0
Control time2.4%
Record vs .500+ opponents0-1

Insider info

4 analyst reads · 138 MMA · our paraphrase, never his words
vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev clear UFC Fight Night Tsarukyan vs Hooker Analysis, Breakdown and Predictions · November 18, 2025
strikingdecent grapplingdecent

States the win plainly ("should get this one done") and argues there is no good case for backing the opponent, given the level of competition he has struggled with; no qualifier lands on the win itself, only closing color about the matchup.

As of 2025-11-18, a decent striker with decent power and a decent body kick, and a decent grappler with decent takedowns and heavy ground and pound. The analyst's main point about him is results-based rather than skills-based: he says this fighter has been run through by several lower-tier opponents in the division, including a close decision in his most recent outing against another lower-tier name.

Strengthdecent power
Strengthdecent body kick
Strengthdecent takedowns
Strengthheavy ground and pound
Weaknesshas lost to, and only narrowly beaten, lower-tier division opposition per the analyst
vs Julius Walker emphatic UFC Fight Night Dolidze vs Hernandez Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · August 4, 2025 · 1 read since
strikingdecent grapplingdecent

Says he'll be 'shocked' if Walker loses, calls him 'a big favorite,' and predicts he 'runs through him' here.

A decent striker with real pop and a solid body kick, but the analyst says he 'crumbles' under adversity and caps him as a regional-level fighter who hasn't translated that up to the UFC. His grappling is decent, with real takedowns and heavy ground-and-pound, but overall he is read as a sizable live underdog here.

Strengthpower
Strengthgood body kick
Strengthdecent takedowns
Strengthheavy ground and pound
Weaknessdurability/composure under adversity
Weaknessceiling capped at regional-level opposition
chin · suspect
vs Modestas Bukauskas coinflip UFC Fight Night Cejudo vs Yadong Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · February 18, 2025 · 2 reads since
strikingdecent grapplinggood

Says he is taking Bukauskas only to have a pick, does not feel great about it, tells viewers they should not either and says not to bet the fight.

A fighter the analyst says almost nobody can know much about: little regional tape and one UFC fight. Reading carefully and admittedly inferring, the analyst credits him with a good body kick, decent striking with some power, a good-looking grappling game with decent takedowns and fair ground strikes. Every point is hedged ('seems') and the analyst says he is reaching. He is 11-1 and 4-1 in his last five.

Strengthbody kick (hedged)
Strengthsome power (hedged)
Strengthgrappling (hedged)
Strengthground strikes (hedged)
Weaknessvery little tape
Weaknessunknown quantity
vs Ibo Aslan coinflip UFC 308 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · October 24, 2024 · 3 reads since
strikingdecent grapplinggood

Stacked hedges: an explicit betting-caution (calls it a dumpster fire, advises against betting it) plus genuine outcome doubt (admits neither fighter is proven and does not like his own pick) are both present and distinct, not just a price caution.

A patient striker who can be a little too passive at times, but carries real power and a good body kick the analyst calls his best weapon. On the ground he has a genuine finishing submission -- two separate arm-triangle finishes -- suggesting a real jiu-jitsu background, plus heavy ground-and-pound and decent takedowns.

Strengthgood body kick, his best weapon
Strengthgood power on the feet
Strengthproven submission finisher, two arm-triangle finishes
Strengthheavy ground-and-pound, decent takedowns
Weaknesscan be too patient and passive on the feet
ko power · goodsub threat · good

Striking trend

Sig. strikes/min, last 4 fights · green = win
October 26, 2024 vs Ibo Aslan — 1.18/min (L) — only 0.8 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Oct '24 February 22, 2025 vs Modestas Bukauskas — 4.09/min (L) — only 2.2 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Feb '25 August 9, 2025 vs Julius Walker — 1.27/min (L) Aug '25 November 22, 2025 vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev — 0.0/min (L) — only 0.6 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Nov '25

Fight history

4 UFC bouts · newest first · opponent records as of fight night
L Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev 7-0 walk-in Submission · R1 0:33 — UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · November 22, 2025
0/1Sig. strikes
6/10Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Julius Walker 0-1 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · August 9, 2025
19/42Sig. strikes
44/62Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:27Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Modestas Bukauskas 16-6 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 2:12 — UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · February 22, 2025
9/22Sig. strikes
16/41Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Ibo Aslan 13-1 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 0:51 — UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · October 26, 2024
1/1Sig. strikes
28/36Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts

Walk-in records count UFC bouts in this database. For the pre-UFC career, see the record breakdown below or the Tapology button up top.

Record breakdown

UFC bouts in this database
0-4-0UFC record

Wins by method

KO/TKO 0
Submission 0
Decision 0
Other 0

Losses by method

KO/TKO 2
Submission 1
Decision 1
Other 0

Fights by organization

UFC 4

Showing UFC fights only — this fighter's full pre-UFC career hasn't been synced yet. It will fill in as the weekly career backfill reaches them.

Division context

vs. 103 qualified Light Heavyweight fighters · tick = division mean
Striking volume /min 1.6 avg 3.4
Strikes absorbed /min 5.0 avg 3.3
Striking accuracy 43.9% avg 46.8%
Striking defense 36.9% avg 53.2%
Takedowns /15 min 0.0 avg 1.5
Takedown defense 36.4% avg 61.0%
Sub attempts /15 min 0.0 avg 0.5
Control time 2.4% avg 21.6%

Headshot of Rafael Cerqueira by UFC · Official UFC athlete photo (copyright UFC; not freely licensed) · Wikimedia Commons · flattened onto dark background, cropped/resized