Stephen Thompson

The analyst commits to Thompson outright and never reaches for his usual betting disclaimers or a coin-flip label. The reasoning is a real mechanism (superior range striking, excellent cardio, takedown defense that survives a single entry attempt), and the only caveat offered is a general, self-deprecating note about the risk of favoring an older fighter -- not anything tied to this specific stylistic matchup.

Praised as possibly the best pure striker in the division at this weight, built on fantastic range control, a diverse kicking arsenal he can land at any point in a combination, and reliable counters. His cardio is called excellent and his durability/recovery are strong. The one real vulnerability named is that sustained, chain-wrestling pressure (not a single takedown attempt) can eventually get him down and stuck there.

considered betting the opposite

Our paraphrase: at 40, Thompson is still called a fantastic, incredibly high-level striker -- fantastic range control, great lateral movement, kicks from either stance anywhere in a combination, great counters, and excellent cardio that could reportedly go ten rounds. He is very durable with quick recovery. His grappling is comparatively the weaker side of his game: good initial takedown defense and he stays safe once taken down, but can be flattened out and controlled over time.

Says if this ran 100 times he wins almost all of them and would be "very surprised" to lose, naming age as the single real risk and still picking through it.

Ranked among the sport's elite strikers at his weight: top-tier range control, quick to move in and out of distance, fantastic combinations from either stance, and a kicking arsenal good enough to mix kicks into the middle of combinations rather than just open or close with them. He also counters well from a low, wide stance. His takedown defense is called pretty good along with fantastic cardio, though he can be controlled if actually flattened out on the mat for a full fight. At 40 years old facing a much younger opponent, age is named as the one real concern, though the analyst does not think it changes the pick.

states Holland as his pick and does not waver from it despite liking the other man personally

A veteran of karate and kickboxing background whom he rates as technically excellent on the feet even now, saying age has not visibly eroded him apart from his recent losses coming only against heavy grapplers. He credits a strong first line of takedown defense but says Thompson has real trouble regaining his feet after being grounded a couple of times, and gets pinned down more as a fight progresses.