Joaquin Buckley

says plainly he is staying away

A good, forward-pressing striker with good power, good bodywork, standout kicks, good movement, and a sharp jab he can double or triple up. Some grappling, mostly used offensively: his takedowns are a pace-change tool rather than a primary plan, backed by pretty good takedown defense and a good sprawl that lets him stay safe on top. His stated vulnerability, per the analyst's own recent-fights note, is being held down and smothered once an opponent does get him underneath.

repeatedly says he's torn, and admits his final call here might miss

A complete, favorably-rated striker: strong pressure, real pop on his punches, consistent work to the midsection, functional kicking, good footwork, and a sharp jab he sometimes doubles or triples up. He has not competed since a one-sided wrestling loss to Kamaru Usman, and the analyst assumes he has been shoring up his takedown defense since then. His own grappling mix, including that takedown defense and his sprawl, is also good, and he stays safe whenever he lands in top position himself.

Explicitly says he is staying away from this one on the betting side, then names Buckley as an admittedly arbitrary choice based on current momentum, but immediately adds that an Usman win would not shock him at all and admits he is still internally torn.

On a surge, five-and-0 in his last five and busier in the cage than his older opponent. A good, forward-pressure striker who is powerful, works the body well, has one of the more memorable kicks in the sport, good movement, and a jab he doubles and triples up. Figures to be the busier striker of the two tonight. Also solid in the grappling: mixes takedowns in with his strikes well, good takedown defense, a nice sprawl, and staying out of trouble once on top -- though wrestling with his specific opponent here is called tough for anyone, so he is expected to want to keep this standing.

Pick is named directly, but surrounded by repeated, open uncertainty about the call and an explicit admission he would have picked the other man under slightly different circumstances, plus a stated plan to not bet heavily on this fight -- rebuilt from Buckley's striking-tool edge, youth/momentum, and Covington's broken foot, short-notice booking and poor last outing, none of which depends on the excluded material noted below.

Good striker who the analyst says has looked even better lately: good forward pressure, power, body work, kicks and movement. Decent wrestler who mixes in takedowns, has good takedown defense and stays safe on top. The analyst frames this explicitly as a tools mismatch -- in a pure kickboxing matchup Buckley's striking tools are 'far superior' to Covington's, while the wrestling phase favors Covington -- and credits a recent move down to welterweight, where he is no longer undersized, as a real boost.

The analyst commits to Thompson outright and never reaches for his usual betting disclaimers or a coin-flip label. The reasoning is a real mechanism (superior range striking, excellent cardio, takedown defense that survives a single entry attempt), and the only caveat offered is a general, self-deprecating note about the risk of favoring an older fighter -- not anything tied to this specific stylistic matchup.

A good, powerful forward-pressure striker who has recently added a real wrestling dimension to his game, including a dependable takedown defense and the ability to stay safe once on top. The analyst frames his best path to the win as getting Thompson to the mat and keeping him there, since the matchup favors him less on the feet.

He lays out a specific sequence for the finish -- land clean on the chin, force a rushed takedown attempt, capitalize with a submission -- but then admits his own liking for the pick is inflated by the price, saying outright he would not favor him 'this much' as anything other than an underdog.

Carries real pop, a body-attacking game, and constant forward pressure, though his signature head kick is flagged as unlikely to reach a much taller man. Decent on the ground too -- mixes takedown attempts in, stays out of trouble once on top, and defends takedowns well himself.

He says skill-for-skill Luque should win every time and commits to him, but explicitly says 'I'm nervous about it' over how Luque reacts to a big shot, adding only that he isn't nervous enough to switch sides -- a stated hedge on the win itself, not just on method.

Buckley presses forward with real power from both his hands and his feet and works the body well, on top of landing one of the sport's most replayed highlight-reel kick knockouts. His wrestling is decent -- he can mix in a takedown as a change of pace when he is losing a striking exchange. He carries a winning record over his most recent run of five fights while staying active in the promotion.

Picks Morono by name twice but explicitly calls this his least confident pick on the card, and concedes the opponent's knockout power as a real, largely unrebutted threat. A stated low-confidence lean, not full outcome doubt.

Recently moved down from middleweight to welterweight, bringing a good level of competition from the higher weight. A good striker with real knockout power, forward pressure that makes that power scarier, strong body work and deceptively athletic kicks. Good wrestling as a mix-in option, though the analyst thinks Morono's jiu-jitsu makes shooting a bad idea here, pushing him to stay standing. Picked against narrowly, with his power acknowledged as a live threat throughout.

says not confident in it whatsoever and names the pick as not very confident either

Good striking that mirrors his opponent's -- forward pressure, knockout power, working the body. Has a wrestling advantage he rarely uses but can call on to mix in a takedown and secure a round if needed. The analyst's gameplan read for him: close the distance, land big shots including a body attack, then loop a heavy follow-up punch back upstairs.

Explicitly self-labels this a soft lean rather than a strong play, sizing it small, but gives a specific, developed mechanism (counter-striking plus elite takedown defense against a forward-pressuring opponent) rather than a bare pick.

A flashy, highlight-reel striker at 28 and heading into his physical prime, known for violent finishes on both ends -- he has delivered highlight knockouts and been on the receiving end of one too. Comes forward with pressure. Showed a strong third-round surge in a past fight after a slow start, which the analyst reads as a pacing habit that could cost him if he waits too long to turn it on again.

Commits to the winner outright, more than once, with no softening on the outcome itself. Backs it with a real mechanism (finishing power against a shaky chin) plus his own 0-for-5 record betting against this man. A late aside calling part of it 'personal' does not walk back the named winner, so it is flagged as a caveat rather than treated as a demotion.

4-1 in his last five with highlight-reel knockout power, picked to win despite being a sizeable underdog. The analyst notes a personal pattern of betting against him and being wrong every time, and says Buckley keeps improving fight to fight. Has a suspect chin of his own, having been knocked out more than once, but the analyst doubts Imavov's one-dimensional striking can capitalize on it.